Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[kobra]

Their end goal is regime change. Anyone with a basic grasp of politics understands this.

But even the Americans and Israelis didnt realize just how weak and incompetent the IR government actually is. Israeli officials admitted that during the first days of the war they expected to lose at least five or six fighter jets and had plans ready to rescue downed pilots.

They expected much stronger counterintelligence from the IR. They expected a higher fire rate from the missile bases. They expected some degree of professionalism from the IRGC-AF units.

But once they saw the real life performance of IRs military they stopped taking them as seriously.

Israel does want this regime gone yes but when the regime is already so incompetent and daghoon why would they be in such a hurry? Thats my point.

Where did they bark their expectations? Please share details

 

[Kyussis]

What difference does it make, Iranians can't run a modern country. How many more decades or centuries of decline do we need to see to accept that?
And making friends with our world powers? Forget it, all the west has to do is make a couple of reconciliatory statements and Iran will drop everything with Russia and China to go kiss the feet that kick them. Iranians never learn and will continue getting played by the simplest tricks.

At least the arabs have the sense to let someone who knows how run their governments. Iranians are just as useless at statecraft and diplomacy.

Your defeatist mentality is embarrassing!

 

[Kyussis]

It's hard to remain united when people have become impoverished by 2 decades of sanctions and feel absolutely humiliated by the empty words and inaction of the people leading their country.

Cool, they can choose to lose Iran then if they don't want to unite against the enemy that has impoverished them!

 

[Shafagh]

That's nonsense and a blatant lie. Of 3600 pages in this thread, over 3000 pages of it are posts about the Israeli strikes on Iran. We haven't added even 360 pages after the war yet.

I'm exaggerating a little bit, but the discussions now have devolved into exactly this.

Now you are saying "brainstorm what" and going back into defeatist mode.

Why post anything at all then? What are you going to do, just sit back and watch?

 

[ShapurII]

Cool, they can choose to loose Iran if they don't want to Unite against the enemy that has impoverished them!

You cannot ignore political science and sociology and expect a good outcome. This whole idea that if we make the situation suffocating for people, and people show their dissatisfaction through civil disobedience but we ignore them, and yet blame people at the end for our own shortcomings, this idea is the root cause of our today's situation and will end in a fate similar to Iraq, Libya and Syria.

For years, the system ruling over Iran has ignored people's demands and wishes. It has led to nothing but a huge rise of unpopularity and internal instability to the point that Mossad recruited Iranians inside Iran to hit our AD in the initial hours of the war. This is why I say you never learn from your past mistakes.

 

[ShapurII]

I'm exaggerating a little bit, but the discussions now have devolved into exactly this.

Now you are saying "brainstorm what" and going back into defeatist mode.

Why post anything at all then? What are you going to do, just sit back and watch?

You're not exaggerating "a little bit". You're twisting facts about this thread.

Fair enough. You're right. I'll be quiet and watch how things will unfold exactly as expected in the future.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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this chatter is increasing but it's not reaching the same levels as last time yet

at least if they strike again sooner than I expect (i.e., this year), I hope IRGC-ASF has cleared all entrances to the SSM bases and dispersed the missiles and built new entrances

spread hundreds of Majid and 358 SAMs throughout the west of the country to down any MALE drones

Israel's ALBMs stockpile has limits ... they were lucky they could use drones so easily last time (both launched by agents inside Iran and MALE drones) to relieve pressure from ALBMs. we can't let them have that luxury again

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

Israel Hayom:

 

[Persian Gulf]

why might Israel attack again so soon?

- mow the lawn strategy - keep enemy weak by regular strikes
- prevent Iran from rebuilding enrichment capability / accessing HEU stockpile
- prevent Iran from rebuilding ballistic missile production chain
- kill more top leadership to plunge Iran into chaos / regime change
- strike core infrastructure to cause chaos and mass suffering --> regime change
- strike while Iran's air defences are still in a very weak state if they have intel that Iran is purchasing Chinese/Russian systems in large numbers

on the other hand:

- Iran has not made any attempt to access Fordow or Natanz, so there is no urgency
- Iran has made partial progress in rebuilding some ballistic missile infrastructure, but this is very much a work in progress, and production levels are still likely very low
- Iran has restored access to SSM bases in the West, so Israel would have to pre-emptively destroy the entrances all over again from scratch to minimise losses
- not clear that Trump would welcome another war so soon after he bragged about ending the war
- Iran has avoided provocative moves such as exiting the NPT, so Israel will struggle to build a strong case for another strike (not that they care much about this)
- Israel did not have enough time to fully replenish Arrow interceptors or depleted ALBMs stockpile (though US has provided 10 THAAD launchers in recent months)

 

[Kyussis]

You dont need a full scale war for the buried HEU. The moment they detect movements that look like recovery of the HEU they will launch airstrikes.

The casus belli for the American strike wasnt just about nukes... it was the embassy takeover, the killing of hundreds of American soldiers and decades of anti US activity and hostile behavior.

The groundwork for US bombing didnt start because of the nuclear program. Its not black and white.

We Iranians tend to forget history fast.

The only point you made that could be seriously considered is the missile aspect. But Im not even sure they view that as a real threat. Out of 500–600 missiles...30 or 40 hit, destroyed some neighborhood blocks but other than that? Was any high value target destroyed? Anything that would actually make Israel shake in its boots?

Around 30 Israelis got killed. Not even a single on duty Israeli soldier.

Like I said I will stand corrected if a new round suddenly breaks out but as far as I can see there are no imminent signs. Once again there will be another round for sure... just not so soon. Perhaps next year.

Please remind us what had Iran done to the Americans when they overthrew our Government and replaced it with their dog?

 

[Shafagh]

why might Israel attack again so soon?

- mow the lawn strategy - keep enemy weak by regular strikes
- prevent Iran from rebuilding enrichment capability / accessing HEU stockpile
- prevent Iran from rebuilding ballistic missile production chain
- kill more top leadership to plunge Iran into chaos / regime change
- strike core infrastructure to cause chaos and mass suffering --> regime change
- strike while Iran's air defences are still in a very weak state if they have intel that Iran is purchasing Chinese/Russian systems in large numbers

on the other hand:

- Iran has not made any attempt to access Fordow or Natanz, so there is no urgency
- Iran has made partial progress in rebuilding some ballistic missile infrastructure, but this is very much a work in progress, and production levels are still likely very low
- Iran has restored access to SSM bases in the West, so Israel would have to pre-emptively destroy the entrances all over again from scratch to minimise losses
- not clear that Trump would welcome another war so soon after he bragged about ending the war
- Iran has avoided provocative moves such as exiting the NPT, so Israel will struggle to build a strong case for another strike (not that they care much about this)
- Israel did not have enough time to fully replenish Arrow interceptors or depleted ALBMs stockpile (though US has provided 10 THAAD launchers in recent months)

I'd like to know how many new TELs they have built. They are critical.

Is there some disguisable small air defence like Herz 9 or Azarakhsh that can be deployed in large numbers to escort and offer protection for the TELs.

Configure 358 to be air launched so they can be deployed on the eastern border.

Harden the air defence network from cyber attack, prevent sabotage.

 

[Shafagh]

Something like this for point defence against cruise missiles and ALBMs

 

[BigMela2onin]

Your defeatist mentality is embarrassing!

My mentality has nothing to do with it, IR leadership cannot even begin to correctly identify it's many problems let alone make an effort to fix them. In history, the humiliating conditions Iran faces now led to great nation-saving revolutions in other countries yet IR does the opposite of what it should do, it hands more power to its oligarchs to undermine the nation further. You can keep denying reality, yet it won't change it. IR made every wrong move it could for 20+ years, they dug a pit so deep they cannot climb out now and there's no one around to give them a ladder.

 

[Shafagh]

Iran has avoided provocative moves such as exiting the NPT, so Israel will struggle to build a strong case for another strike

They're targeting civilian aid flotillas with drones. Do you think they care about building a strong case?

 

[BigMela2onin]

why might Israel attack again so soon?

They will attack because any cost they might endure will be carried by their goy slaves. It's as simple as that. The US will foot the bill for the attack, defending against any counter-attack, and any cost with rebuilding. As I've said many times, the campaign for syrianization of Iran will soon begin and it will end with balkanization.