Pakistan-India Conflict 2025: News Updates and Discussion

[Starlord]

Any large movements from Indians will be picked up, like we did back in may so for now i don't think things are as serious, even if something happen in India its not like they can just bring 300-400k troops on border in a day or 2, it will take them at least a week or so... logistics for a full invasion is no joke, but they will definitely use more missiles and drones, I think missiles is their best bet as now the nuclear threshold is increased.

 

[maverick]

Any large movements from Indians will be picked up, like we did back in may so for now i don't think things are as serious, even if something happen in India its not like they can just bring 300-400k troops on border in a day or 2, it will take them at least a week or so... logistics for a full invasion is no joke, but they will definitely use more missiles and drones, I think missiles is their best bet as now the nuclear threshold is increased.

lets just say they did, the message is very clear, that Pakistan will deploy massive TNT ordinance at the point of concentration. It was evident that Pakistan threw 90,000 tons of TNT in 4 hours with Fateh 1- 2 rockets on 30 Indian targets in May skirmish

Indian army knows the reality.

 

[RescueRanger]

Lets keep war hysteria on one side.

Sir,

This is not war hysteria this is education and awareness. Majority of Pakistanis don't even know the difference between a triangular bandage and what a figure 8 is. Civilian readiness is key:

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/19/europe/france-survival-manual-scli-intl

The brochure In case of crisis or war will soon be delivered to over five million households in Sweden

The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) will begin mailing out the latest version of the brochure In case of crisis or war on 18 November. Every household in the country, a total of 5,2 million, will receive the brochure out over a period of two weeks.

www.msb.se

Sweden, Finland and Norway release new advice on surviving war

Sweden said the new advice follows a worsening security situation, by which it means the war in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

*****
There is proven historical evidence that in the event of a major disaster or crisis - traditional services such as utilities, emergency services, medical care will be compromised or severely diminished, interruption to supply lines coupled with panic buying and public unease will result in households being without essentials after the immediate event of the crisis.

Pakistani's don't have a family emergency plan - how do you keep yourself and your family safe? How do you keep in communication with eachother if the mobile networks are compromised - do you have an agreement emergency meeting point if you need to evacuate your house and get split up?

Do you have photos of your loved ones with their names, age, blood group, and identification marks on the rear for identification, have you backed up your important documents (degrees, property paperwork etc) on a UBS stick or similar media?

Do you have an emergency supply kit for each member of the family to survive self-sufficiently for a minimum of 72 hours in the event of a crisis.

Do you have an emergency supply of water? Do you have some spare fuel safely stored in case gas stations are overloaded and fuel supplies are rationed or interrupted? Do you have some spare flash cash in case the banks are closed or ATMS are inoperable?

This is why READINESS is not a SIN! It is the duty of every citizen to be prepared...

 

[Starlord]

lets just say they did, the message is very clear, that Pakistan will deploy massive TNT ordinance at the point of concentration. It was evident that Pakistan threw 90,000 tons of TNT in 4 hours with Fateh 1- 2 rockets on 30 Indian targets in May skirmish

Indian army knows the reality.

Agree but they are hurt to a point where they are not thinking rationally, they need some trophies for their awam, and they are very eager to use their naval forces, because that's only one front that we see no action, not even in 2019 or 2025. But I think what we should do from Ground that we need to push inside the LOC, and maybe send SSG into Kashmir to disrupt IA movements to front lines, we need to push the war into their territory rather than hunkered down to defend our positions because now in age of missiles its easy to take out defensive positions using drones or loitering munitions.

 

[Master Chief]

Sir,

This is not war hysteria this is education and awareness. Majority of Pakistanis don't even know the difference between a triangular bandage and what a figure 8 is. Civilian readiness is key:

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/19/europe/france-survival-manual-scli-intl

The brochure In case of crisis or war will soon be delivered to over five million households in Sweden

The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) will begin mailing out the latest version of the brochure In case of crisis or war on 18 November. Every household in the country, a total of 5,2 million, will receive the brochure out over a period of two weeks.

www.msb.se

Sweden, Finland and Norway release new advice on surviving war

Sweden said the new advice follows a worsening security situation, by which it means the war in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

*****
There is proven historical evidence that in the event of a major disaster or crisis - traditional services such as utilities, emergency services, medical care will be compromised or severely diminished, interruption to supply lines coupled with panic buying and public unease will result in households being without essentials after the immediate event of the crisis.

Pakistani's don't have a family emergency plan - how do you keep yourself and your family safe? How do you keep in communication with eachother if the mobile networks are compromised - do you have an agreement emergency meeting point if you need to evacuate your house and get split up?

Do you have photos of your loved ones with their names, age, blood group, and identification marks on the rear for identification, have you backed up your important documents (degrees, property paperwork etc) on a UBS stick or similar media?

Do you have an emergency supply kit for each member of the family to survive self-sufficiently for a minimum of 72 hours in the event of a crisis.

Do you have an emergency supply of water? Do you have some spare fuel safely stored in case gas stations are overloaded and fuel supplies are rationed or interrupted? Do you have some spare flash cash in case the banks are closed or ATMS are inoperable?

This is why READINESS is not a SIN! It is the duty of every citizen to be prepared...

Extremely important posts. Keep up the good work.

I literally dream of the day when Pakistan becomes as committed to civil defence and community education as some of the Far East Asian nations. The sooner we humbly acknowledge our destiny as a fortress nation, the better equipped we will all be to deal with the threat of these inferiority driven barbarian hordes to our east, not to mention the ones to our west.

 

[Master Chief]

For what it's worth, Keir Starmer is in India doing some trade rubbish (though, as an aside, he has refused to allow UK to absorb the h1b visa human effluent that India will soon be swimming in - will save for another thread), and a cricket world cup is underway.

I doubt any actual attack from Hindustan is imminent for weeks yet.

However, the event that serves as cassus belli may well be being uploaded to the server.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

scapegoat

As lame as only Indians can be!
They know that they're manufacturing a casus belli for a misadventure. They know that Pakistan knows what they're upto and in today's world the whole world is clued-in on what they're up to....

 

[Maarkhoor]

India–Pakistan Conflict Risk Brief (October 2025)
Prepared by: RescueRanger | Classification: Open (Open source Intelligence) *

1. Scope & Objective: to provide a succinct overview of the current threat dynamics of conflict between Pakistan & India

2. Methodology: Collation of information available in public domain using archive of newspaper articles, video interviews, opinion pieces, public tenders, examining previous conflagration points and triggers and reviewing propaganda on social, print and digital media.

• For Data analysis of social media conversation trends, the author used measured hashtag counts where available. Software used for hashtag network mapping: Python 3.9.
• Risk assessment modelling used: Belfast Centre Multi-Dimensional Escalation under the Nuclear Umbrella.

3. Findings:

3.1 Current Situation
Tensions remain elevated but contained after the May 2025 crisis, which saw air and drone strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) and mass troop alerts.

No large-scale mobilization as of early October, but persistent rhetoric and localized ceasefire violations continue. Pakistan’s economic fragility and India’s electoral cycle raise the risk of politically driven escalation. Heightened chatter around Kashmir and increased drone activity are observed near border sectors.

3.2 Social Media Monitoring (October 2025)
Hashtag concurrence monitoring following alleged attack on Indian CRPF in Kandi, IOK. Refer to figure 1.

View attachment 152477
Figure 1: Hashtag concurrence monitoring following alleged attack on Indian CRPF in Kandi, IOK

View attachment 152478
Figure 2: Hashtag concurrence monitoring using data-informed model. In less than 24 hours the hashtag #crpf was tweeted 176,403 times. The hashtag #crpfjawans was tweeted 16,494; #crpfindia was tweeted 9,020; and #crpfattack was tweeted 3,078 times respectively.
Event/incident tags like #crpfattack are present and connected (these often spike during incidents).

View attachment 152479
Figure 3: Multi-Platform hashtag monitoring along with moon-analysis. NB: the word map provides a colour coded heat-map: turquoise is positive, fuchsia is negative.

4. Likelihood Assessment

Timeframe	Limited Escalation	Full Scale War	Key Triggers
Next 7–30 days	Moderate (20%)	Low (5%)	Terror attack, LoC provocation, political misstep
Next 6 months	Moderate / High (35%)	Low / Moderate (15%)	Sustained militant attacks, air/missile exchange
Next 2 years	Moderate (30–40%)	Low (10%)	Prolonged friction, major crisis trigger

5. Potential Impact (If Conflict Erupts)

• Military: 100s–1000s of casualties in first week; destruction of bases and logistics hubs.
• Civilian/Economic: Airport closures, $5–10 B USD trade loss, energy and supply chain ripple effects.
• Regional/Global: Overflight bans, refugee pressure, heavy diplomatic engagement by US, China, Gulf states.
• Nuclear Risk: Low but not zero; tactical nuclear postures shorten escalation timelines

6 Early Warning Indicators
1. Major terror attack in India attributed to alleged Pakistan based group.
2. Mobilization of Indian armoured/air assets near the LoC.
3. Suspension of hotlines or diplomatic withdrawals.
4. Indian/Pakistani missile unit movements or nuclear rhetoric.
5. Social media spikes in nationalist or war preparatory messaging.

7. Mitigation & Response Options

• Diplomatic: Maintain hotlines and third-party mediation readiness (UAE, US, China).
• Military: Exercise notifications and air space coordination.
• Information: Counter disinformation and verify incident reporting.
• Humanitarian: Pre-position relief assets near potential refugee corridors.

8. Overall Assessment
Probability of large-scale war remains low, but risk of short, sharp escalation is high and persistent. Rapid crisis communication and restraint messaging remain vital to avoid inadvertent nuclear signalling.

8.1 Risk Matrix
View attachment 152483

This work is protected under a creative-commons licence CC BY-SA
This license enables reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator. The license allows for commercial use. If you remix, adapt, or build upon the material, you must license the modified material under identical terms. CC BY-SA includes the following elements:
BY: credit must be given to the creator.
SA: Adaptations must be shared under the same terms.

Just reminder about Atlantic incident.


Regards.

 

[RescueRanger]

For what it's worth, Keir Starmer is in India doing some trade rubbish (though, as an aside, he has refused to allow UK to absorb the h1b visa human effluent that India will soon be swimming in - will save for another thread), and a cricket world cup is underway.

I doubt any actual attack from Hindustan is imminent for weeks yet.

However, the event that serves as cassus belli may well be being uploaded to the server.

I ran a simulation for the possibility of conflict based on available models and public open source intelligence:

--- This is V3 of the simulation. ---
This version adds a probabilistic simulation of armed conflict likelihood between India and Pakistan over the next 12 months (from 8 October 2025). It synthesizes open-source reporting on the May 2025 crisis, nuclear posture dynamics, and current political signals to produce scenario probabilities and sensitivity analysis.

Simulation: Likelihood of Armed Conflict (next 12 months)

Methodology:
A qualitative scoring model was used to map key drivers to scenario probabilities. Drivers considered: recent crisis behaviour (May 2025), cross-border incidents and ceasefire violations, militant attacks, domestic politics in both countries, military capabilities and postures (including nuclear weapons), and international diplomatic mediation capacity.

Weights were assigned to each driver and combined into a risk score which was mapped to scenario probabilities. This is a planning simulation, not a predictive forecast.





Next I asked the simulator to run to add a sensitivity sweep to the above scenario


The limitation for the above is that all this relies on an open-source, qualitative-probabilistic simulation.

Model Used: Each driver (historical crisis frequency, militant threat, force posture, political signalling, international mediation) was scored 0-10 and weighted.

Sources Used:
Sources: Stimson Center 'Four Days in May' (May 2025); Federation of American Scientists/Bulletin Nuclear Notebook (Sep 2025); IFPRI/IFRI analyses on Pakistan's nuclear posture (2025); recent news reporting (Oct 8, 2025).

I then used the above model and asked the simulator to run 10,000 iterations of the above to predict the probability of armed conflict between India and Pakistan:

The baseline run shows high likelihood of low-level incidents (~56%) and moderate probability of limited conventional exchange (~23%). Sustained conventional war (10%) and nuclear use (1%) remain lower, but non-zero. Only about 10% of iterations resulted in no significant escalation.

Using the above Simulation - a sensitivity sweep was performed to include the regional marginals vs the probability of using Scenario A.


The Conditional region distributions (illustrative assumptions used to allocate events to regions):

• A (Low-level incidents): Kashmir 70%, Punjab 25%, Maritime 5%
• B (Limited conventional exchange): Kashmir 50%, Punjab 30%, Maritime 20%
• C (Sustained conventional war): Kashmir 40%, Punjab 40%, Maritime 20%
• D (Nuclear use): Kashmir 60%, Punjab 30%, Maritime 10%
• E (No significant escalation): None (no region)

Out of 50,000 runs the results provide a unique insight:

• The marginal probability that Kashmir is the locus of an incident (any scenario other than E) is the highest of the three regions under these assumptions (the exact % is in the table).
• Punjab is the second-most-likely region for conventional escalations, and Maritime remains the least-likely but non-negligible in limited or sustained conventional exchanges.

====
TLDR: Based on Conflict modelling - the likelihood of a low scale conflict between India and Pakistan is estimated to be around 55% with Kashmir most probable to be the flashpoint. The likelihood of a protracted full scale war remained at 1%
====
Sources:
Stimson Center 'Four Days in May' (May 2025); Federation of American Scientists/Bulletin Nuclear Notebook (Sep 2025); IFPRI/IFRI analyses on Pakistan's nuclear posture (2025); recent news reporting (Oct 8, 2025).

 

[hussain0216]

Because we treated them badly — we were partners in attacking their country. What are you talking about? I’m being polite here, my friend. It’s us who still think of them as our backyard. If someone allowed and provided air bases to attack Pakistan, what would you do? Wouldn’t you hate that country?

That hate would affect the rest of the Pakistanis. Your hate towards some country affects rest of Muslims, right here. So please, when you speak, be careful. It was us who gave air bases against their country; it was us who sold our Muslim brothers for dollars. So accept your own crime before blaming others.
And I am very polite to you keep in mind.
We are trying our best to make America happy so we want Afghan to be hated. Inspect your policy before it’s too late we already lost 80,000 people in that war.

We sold their children for the dollars when we gave them shelter we took billions of dollar from international community on their name when world stopped giving us money. We kicked them out even they were living among us for 30 to 50 years some of them never saw Afghanistan. Their children’s their parents their elders are buried in Pakistani soil. Allah is up there his punishment is very hard

The Afghans have been attacking us since the 1940s, they are worthless animals

What cool aid have you been drinking

 

[Master Chief]

Just reminder about Atlantic incident.


Regards.

Welcome back sir

 

[PK781]

They will not survive Iran like sanctions from the US. Trump has said this over 50 times already to keep reminding them. They can't say they weren't warned. I don't think they will, it will only damage their relations further. US and Saudi have made it clear where they stand.

well so far the americans haven't even threatened them to stop.....not that they will anyway. I would NEVER trust the merican regime to do anything much for Pakistan.

 

[PK781]

gentlemen Mr. Zaid Hamid expects attack this October.

both borders will be active

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Alot of people don't like Zaid sb, but he does always say the truth and knows the enemy pretty well. Warning signs are all clear......

And there is silence from pretty much ALL countries, even China is gone silent.......

 

[tman786]

For what it's worth, Keir Starmer is in India doing some trade rubbish (though, as an aside, he has refused to allow UK to absorb the h1b visa human effluent that India will soon be swimming in - will save for another thread), and a cricket world cup is underway.

I doubt any actual attack from Hindustan is imminent for weeks yet.

However, the event that serves as cassus belli may well be being uploaded to the server.

The last time UK and India met, India attacked Pakistan on the same day

 

[gamaji]

Just reminder about Atlantic incident.


Regards.

The cowardly Indian attack on an unarmed Atlantic plane is certainly one such Indian aggression that still needs to be revenged. I don't really understand why Pak government could not shoot down at least two equivalent Indian planes in 2019 or 2025 before switching down to restraint mode?

Let's hope Pakistan this time hunts down at least two Indian big birds and then explicitly issues a statement telling Modi and the world that state of Pakistan does not forget its losses and perpetrators behind those losses.