How Many Fighter Jets Does China Produce Annually? Concerns arise about China surpassing the US Air Force in fighter jet production

[Beijingwalker]

How Many Fighter Jets Does China Produce Annually? Concerns arise about China surpassing the US Air Force in fighter jet production​

By Aaron Spray
Published 15 hours ago

SUMMARY​

• China produces around 240 J-10, J-16, and J-20 fighter jets annually, plus J-11s and J-15.
• Recent advancements show an increase in Chinese jet production, with a focus on new engines.
• Concerns arise about China surpassing the US Air Force in fighter jet production.

How many fighter jets does China produce? Estimating Chinese production numbers is not as easy as in the West (where the manufacturers disclose their production numbers). The number of aircraft produced by the Chinese Air Force (properly the People's Liberation Army Air Force or PLAAF) can only be estimated. The numbers below do not include the JF-17 Thunder jointly produced with Pakistan.

A laggard no more​

For many years, the Chinese fighter jet industry was somewhat a laggard. Chinese Cold War fighter jets were mostly Soviet jets produced under license. China continued to produce the ancient Chengdu J-7 (a copy of the Soviet MiG-21 Fishbed) as late as 2013 (although for export).

Photo: rehan waheed | Shutterstock

Today, many of China's fighter jets are old Soviet jets or licensed copies. Much of the Chinese Air Force's inventory is based on the Soviet/Russian Su-27 Flanker. Other legacy aircraft in Chinese inventory are Soviet copies. For example, the Shenyang J-11 and J-16 are licensed copies of the Su-27 Flanker. China also purchased Russian Su-27 Flankers, Su-35s, and Su-30s (both modern variants of the Su-27) in large numbers.


But this is now changing dramatically. In recent years, China has developed the J-10 Dragon and the fifth-generation J-20 Mighty Dragon. Importantly, throughout the Cold War and into the 2000s, China could not develop and produce its own advanced fighter jet engines. But this appears to be changing.

Photo: N509FZ | Wikimedia Commons
China is finally developing and fielding its own jet engines as it continues to break away from dependence on Russia in the sector. It can now produce the WS-10 and WS-15 series engines as credible and reliable engines for its J-10C and J-20 aircraft.

Chinese Fighter jet production estimates​

According to reporting by Air and Space Forces Magazine, China produces roughly more than 100 J-20 Mighty Dragons (NATO reporting name Fagin) a year (these are China's vaunted 5th-generation fighter jets). Rick Joe, writing for the Diplomat, offers considerable analysis on the new WS-10 and WS-15 engine series.

Joe also delves into the J-20 production numbers. He stated previous expectations for J-20 production in 2023 "may approach 100 aircraft a year by the end of 2023 and comfortably meet 100 per year in 2024." However, writing in August 2023 and using retrospective estimates, he suggested 70 J-20s were delivered in 2022, and it is unknown if this rate would be expanded further and if 70 or 100 would be produced in 2023. However, he did note the apparent expansion at the factory and that 100 per year was credible.


For comparison, the US is producing around 135 F-35s a year (expected to be stable at around 156 airframes annually). However, around 60 to 70 of those F-35s are for export to allies and partners. Additionally, while the F-35 and J-20 are typically labeled fifth-generation fighters, they are not the same, and the F-35 is considered significantly more capable.

China also produces around 40 Chengdu J-10C Vigorous Dragons (NATO reporting name Firebird) annually. The J-10 is sometimes compared to a low-end F-15EX. Topping off the Chinese fighter jet production list are more than 100 Shenyang J-16 Hidden Dragons (NATO reporting name Flanker-N). It should also be noted that these are current production numbers, and China may ramp up production.

It should also be noted that China is developing the multirole Shenyang FC-31 fifth-generation fighter. China also produces Shenyang J-15 and Shenyang J-11s based on the Soviet Su-27 Flanker (these are used in the navy). It is unclear how many of these are being produced.

Fears of overtaking the US Air Force​

Chinese fighter jet production is now impressive, which has led to fears that it will overtake the US Air Force to become the largest in the world. Navy Admiral John C. Aquilino stated before the Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2024, "The world's largest Navy (China by number of hulls), soon to be the world's largest Air Force. The magnitude, scope, and scale of this security challenge cannot be understated; all would be challenged."

That said, China has a way to go to replace its many dated aircraft, and the US will have far more combat aircraft if the Navy and Marines are added to the tally.

The combined Chinese Air Force and Navy are believed to have around 3,150 aircraft (excluding trainers and drones). By comparison, the US Air Force has around 4,000 aircraft, excluding trainers and drones. The Navy and Marines have a combined inventory of around 3,300 jets, raising the figure to over 8,000 jets for the US.

 

[conqueror]

China will be adding around 1000 jets every 4.16 years. In 8.32 years 2000 jets, 12.48 years 3000 exceeding modern jets. I don't think USA can afford to sit wait and pray for another 12 years. It will be roasted sitting.

 

[j_hungary]

China will be adding around 1000 jets every 4.16 years. In 8.32 years 2000 jets, 12.48 years 3000 exceeding modern jets. I don't think USA can afford to sit wait and pray for another 12 years. It will be roasted sitting.

You can't train 1000 pilot in 4 years.....then you need to have 1000 trainer to have that 1000 pilot put into training...Which makes "adding 1000 planes a year" quite pointless.

You are talking about a 4-year aviation degree with another 3 to 4 years flight training.

And US made more than 222 plane a year, that number only counted how many plane US was taking up, US also sell jet internationally......

 

[Beijingwalker]

I doubt if the US manufacturing capability is capable of making enough ammo in a real war scenario. Manufacturing is the ultimate king of everything.

 

[Hendarto]

You can't train 1000 pilot in 4 years.....then you need to have 1000 trainer to have that 1000 pilot put into training...Which makes "adding 1000 planes a year" quite pointless.

You are talking about a 4-year aviation degree with another 3 to 4 years flight training.

And US made more than 222 plane a year, that number only counted how many plane US was taking up, US also sell jet internationally......

And you think China doesn't train pilots? Nope China recently shortened the training of the pilots and took students right from High school accelerated the training of pilots and assigned them to their brigades for further training

 

[j_hungary]

And you think China doesn't train pilots? Nope China recently shortened the training of the pilots and took students right from High school accelerated the training of pilots and assigned them to their brigades for further training

I didn't say China did not train pilot, I said you can't train 1000 every 4 year. How are you training 1000 pilot in 4 years? when a class is at least 7......

And then you need 1000 aircraft to train 1000 pilot.......

So you tell me......

 

[Beijingwalker]

I didn't say China did not train pilot, I said you can't train 1000 every 4 year. How are you training 1000 pilot in 4 years? when a class is at least 7......

And then you need 1000 aircraft to train 1000 pilot.......

So you tell me......

China may already have that number, being a pilot doesn't mean you have to own a plane.

 

[Deino]

How Many Fighter Jets Does China Produce Annually? Concerns arise about China surpassing the US Air Force in fighter jet production​

By Aaron Spray
Published 15 hours ago

SUMMARY​

• China produces around 240 J-10, J-16, and J-20 fighter jets annually, plus J-11s and J-15.
• Recent advancements show an increase in Chinese jet production, with a focus on new engines.
• Concerns arise about China surpassing the US Air Force in fighter jet production.

How many fighter jets does China produce? Estimating Chinese production numbers is not as easy as in the West (where the manufacturers disclose their production numbers). The number of aircraft produced by the Chinese Air Force (properly the People's Liberation Army Air Force or PLAAF) can only be estimated. The numbers below do not include the JF-17 Thunder jointly produced with Pakistan.

A laggard no more​

For many years, the Chinese fighter jet industry was somewhat a laggard. Chinese Cold War fighter jets were mostly Soviet jets produced under license. China continued to produce the ancient Chengdu J-7 (a copy of the Soviet MiG-21 Fishbed) as late as 2013 (although for export).

Photo: rehan waheed | Shutterstock

Today, many of China's fighter jets are old Soviet jets or licensed copies. Much of the Chinese Air Force's inventory is based on the Soviet/Russian Su-27 Flanker. Other legacy aircraft in Chinese inventory are Soviet copies. For example, the Shenyang J-11 and J-16 are licensed copies of the Su-27 Flanker. China also purchased Russian Su-27 Flankers, Su-35s, and Su-30s (both modern variants of the Su-27) in large numbers.

View attachment 58436
But this is now changing dramatically. In recent years, China has developed the J-10 Dragon and the fifth-generation J-20 Mighty Dragon. Importantly, throughout the Cold War and into the 2000s, China could not develop and produce its own advanced fighter jet engines. But this appears to be changing.

Photo: N509FZ | Wikimedia Commons
China is finally developing and fielding its own jet engines as it continues to break away from dependence on Russia in the sector. It can now produce the WS-10 and WS-15 series engines as credible and reliable engines for its J-10C and J-20 aircraft.

Chinese Fighter jet production estimates​

According to reporting by Air and Space Forces Magazine, China produces roughly more than 100 J-20 Mighty Dragons (NATO reporting name Fagin) a year (these are China's vaunted 5th-generation fighter jets). Rick Joe, writing for the Diplomat, offers considerable analysis on the new WS-10 and WS-15 engine series.

Joe also delves into the J-20 production numbers. He stated previous expectations for J-20 production in 2023 "may approach 100 aircraft a year by the end of 2023 and comfortably meet 100 per year in 2024." However, writing in August 2023 and using retrospective estimates, he suggested 70 J-20s were delivered in 2022, and it is unknown if this rate would be expanded further and if 70 or 100 would be produced in 2023. However, he did note the apparent expansion at the factory and that 100 per year was credible.

View attachment 58437
For comparison, the US is producing around 135 F-35s a year (expected to be stable at around 156 airframes annually). However, around 60 to 70 of those F-35s are for export to allies and partners. Additionally, while the F-35 and J-20 are typically labeled fifth-generation fighters, they are not the same, and the F-35 is considered significantly more capable.

China also produces around 40 Chengdu J-10C Vigorous Dragons (NATO reporting name Firebird) annually. The J-10 is sometimes compared to a low-end F-15EX. Topping off the Chinese fighter jet production list are more than 100 Shenyang J-16 Hidden Dragons (NATO reporting name Flanker-N). It should also be noted that these are current production numbers, and China may ramp up production.

It should also be noted that China is developing the multirole Shenyang FC-31 fifth-generation fighter. China also produces Shenyang J-15 and Shenyang J-11s based on the Soviet Su-27 Flanker (these are used in the navy). It is unclear how many of these are being produced.

Fears of overtaking the US Air Force​

Chinese fighter jet production is now impressive, which has led to fears that it will overtake the US Air Force to become the largest in the world. Navy Admiral John C. Aquilino stated before the Senate Armed Services Committee in March 2024, "The world's largest Navy (China by number of hulls), soon to be the world's largest Air Force. The magnitude, scope, and scale of this security challenge cannot be understated; all would be challenged."

That said, China has a way to go to replace its many dated aircraft, and the US will have far more combat aircraft if the Navy and Marines are added to the tally.

The combined Chinese Air Force and Navy are believed to have around 3,150 aircraft (excluding trainers and drones). By comparison, the US Air Force has around 4,000 aircraft, excluding trainers and drones. The Navy and Marines have a combined inventory of around 3,300 jets, raising the figure to over 8,000 jets for the US.

These numbers are totally off and that report at best suited for click-bait ...


The numbers of both the J-10C & J-16 is much too high. For example we haven't seen a new 9th Batch J-10 after we got aware of Batch 08 in mid/late 2023 and Batch 07 in early 2022. As such it seems, new units are more formed by transferring already delivered ones when a certain unit converts to J-16 or J-20. Anyway, the size of a batch is also not that large.

Similar, the number of J-16s is much lower with Batch 11 noticed first in late 2022 and Batch 12 first confirmed in late-2023. Also, the size of a batch is smaller ...

And for J-11, they are no longer in production and J-15Bs are not confirmed yet.

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

Well China does have a larger Navy than USA has.

But its not only about quantity, its also about quality.

However I do support China over USA anyday.

 

[Beijingwalker]

With China's unrivaled industrial capacity, becoming the world biggest air force is just a matter of time. Army, Navy and Air force all depend on a country's overall industral capability.

 

[SaadH]

You can't train 1000 pilot in 4 years.....then you need to have 1000 trainer to have that 1000 pilot put into training...Which makes "adding 1000 planes a year" quite pointless.

You are talking about a 4-year aviation degree with another 3 to 4 years flight training.

And US made more than 222 plane a year, that number only counted how many plane US was taking up, US also sell jet internationally......

In about 5 years, pilots will be redundant and in a decade extinct.

 

[Beijingwalker]

In about 5 years, pilots will be redundant and in a decade extinct.

DJI will make that happen.

 

[j_hungary]

China may already have that number, being a pilot doesn't mean you have to own a plane.

Being a pilot means you have to be trained on a plane.

I am not disputing the fact that China have 1000 pilot, I am saying China can't train 1000 pilot EVERY 4 YEARS considering it take up to 7 (4 years for an aviation degree + 3 years flight school) to become a fighter pilot, which mean you need a bigger student pool with a lot more resource than just 1000 trainer to train 1000 pilot every 4 years.

 

[j_hungary]

In about 5 years, pilots will be redundant and in a decade extinct.

You still need a pilot to fly combat drone, unless you are complete depends on FPV drone, that's another issue.

OTOH, you still need to send up airborne surveillance asset. Unless you can put a radar package in a cessna size drone.

 

[SaadH]

You still need a pilot to fly combat drone, unless you are complete depends on FPV drone, that's another issue.

OTOH, you still need to send up airborne surveillance asset. Unless you can put a radar package in a cessna size drone.

All airborne assets will be unmanned and fully autonomous flown by AI.