@Nilgiri @Joe Shearer If it is true (which seems to me) then India is asking for trouble.
Anything India does that has a sniff of chinese whispers potential, is going to get it in spades (in media and related elitist+loyal serf games)
....anything that new BD admin et al. does...same thing in reverse.
i.e India (and pro-India within BD) is the bogeyman for one side and vice versa.
I have lost interest in the matter largely till we have BD election (hopefully institutionally built as well as possible for it and long run), i.e an admin with a proven mandate.... and courts that have shown sufficient fairness and credibility....and then can judge Yunus et al admin and whatever else goes on in interim till that point in hindsight.
I like hindsight as its 20/20. Only few things in life I have sensory resolution to make decent crystal ball projections, Bangladesh and its sociopolitics is not one of them.
I lost my temper recently at a BD friend because of going down these rabbit hole speculation and flexing stuff....as to why India will very likely be cold, suspicious and hostile towards the new BD admin (as perceived by BD) in various ways and the various responses at India's disposal like the visa issue:
India suspended visa services in Bangladesh last month. Only few hundred urgent requests including those for medical or student visas are being considered for now, it is learnt.
theprint.in
...and things like the capital inflow market for 2025, IMF loans always somehow prevailing in neighbourhood over Chinese liquidity (instead of further Chinese loans) when push comes to shove....
...and the "if you like China, go ahead see their pricepoint and how they handle you for medical and european consulate visas and so on". Or pick Thailand, Singapore, UAE whomever. Theres enough rich people in BD, get them to fork it out for rest of BD population that needs it while you invest and develop in things you should have invested and developed yourself a long time ago.
i.e what stops current Indian political regime (or really any Indian political dispensation in same setting since India - BAL ties are strong historically).....from simply raising this threshold if political climate stays cold (fully vetted, rich and friendly BD people only, rest BD can pitch in to send and develop its choices with others, India need not entertain it and can focus on Indians and their own issues)?
These are potentialities, what gets actualised needs course of time to see.
But one can see that strict neutral foreign affairs and independence takes money and time....so BD can pool and spend more for it as it now sees fit. Or if it does not or cannot, then its constrained in the end with however existing pie has shaped up w.r.t India. That's how it all works in the end.
Anyway it is not worth getting into weeds too much while BD has lot to do on the ground that matters, to prove credibility, that the admin is still being lethargic about. But then again BD bureaucracy and its inertia (plus security apparatus and corporate groups inertia) might be surfacing for Yunus et al.
It is simply why I say 6 month watch and then another 6 month if Yunus thinks one year is sufficient for interim. Or if its 2 years or however long, then we can see that in hindsight too.
