Afghanistan announces start of $10b TAPI gas pipeline project

You make it sounds so simple, why doesn't India accept Natural gas coming from a pipeline via Pakistan then? lol

I'm not saying the pipeline shouldn't be built at all, I'm saying contingencies need to be built before that. Namely the Iran pipeline which would be far more reliable. Its best to obviously have both to diversify risks, but if one was to prioritize, I would say the Iran pipeline is worth pursuing more.

Iran has the 2nd largest gas reserves in the world, and the 3rd largest producer of natural gas, Its prospects to pipe gas to Europe are dim b/c of geopolitics. it borders energy Rich Iraq and Turkmenistan, and Turkmenistan supplies China, so the prospects of supplying China via Turkmenistan is dim. LNG is not a currently viable option as the tech for liquefaction and regassing is monopolized by the west, and nonwestern alternatives do not currently exist. So it ends up cannibalizing most of its own gas for electricity and other sectors, rather than export it like it world prefer.

Oil and Gas pipelines to Pakistan make all the sense in the world for Iran and even for Pakistan, and both piped oil and gas are cheaper than oil transported on ships as well as LNG.
What you say makes sense with a caveat... it's fine if the circumstances are normal but they are not ...
1). Our agreement with Iran has become an albatross on our neck and we don't want another one . 2) there are very good chances Pakistan is going to hit the jackpot in oil and gas ....we got to wait for a few months to get a clear picture .
 
You make it sounds so simple, why doesn't India accept Natural gas coming from a pipeline via Pakistan then? lol

I'm not saying the pipeline shouldn't be built at all, I'm saying contingencies need to be built before that. Namely the Iran pipeline which would be far more reliable. Its best to obviously have both to diversify risks, but if one was to prioritize, I would say the Iran pipeline is worth pursuing more.

Iran has the 2nd largest gas reserves in the world, and the 3rd largest producer of natural gas, Its prospects to pipe gas to Europe are dim b/c of geopolitics. it borders energy Rich Iraq and Turkmenistan, and Turkmenistan supplies China, so the prospects of supplying China via Turkmenistan is dim. LNG is not a currently viable option as the tech for liquefaction and regassing is monopolized by the west, and nonwestern alternatives do not currently exist. So it ends up cannibalizing most of its own gas for electricity and other sectors, rather than export it like it world prefer.

Oil and Gas pipelines to Pakistan make all the sense in the world for Iran and even for Pakistan, and both piped oil and gas are cheaper than oil transported on ships as well as LNG.
In the same way Russians export their petrochemicals in the name of Kazakhstan, so too could Iran link into the TAPI pipeline, in the name of a trans-central Asian pipeline to China, to be able to export to Pakistan and fulfill the requirement of a Pak-Iran pipeline. This could be what’s happening. Pakistan needs a way out of the penalty by building something but also doesn’t want to look like it’s buying from Iran as not to antagonize the US.

For Pakistan, having Iran unofficially on board would mean Afghanistan would have Iran, Pakistan, the central Asian nations, as well as China demanding the pipelines not be disrupted; all of Afghanistan’s neighbors.

Sure it sounds convoluted but Russia has done something similar for Kazakh oil and gas, so why not Iran.

Remember this news from earlier:

And the Iran Turkmen gas swap
 
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In the same way Russians export their petrochemicals in the name of Kazakhstan, so too could Iran link into the TAPI pipeline, in the name of a trans-central Asian pipeline to China, to be able to export to Pakistan and fulfill the requirement of a Pak-Iran pipeline. This could be what’s happening. Pakistan needs a way out of the penalty by building something but also doesn’t want to look like it’s buying from Iran as not to antagonize the US.

For Pakistan, having Iran unofficially on board would mean Afghanistan would have Iran, Pakistan, the central Asian nations, as well as China demanding the pipelines not be disrupted; all of Afghanistan’s neighbors.

Sure it sounds convoluted but Russia has done something similar for Kazakh oil and gas, so why not Iran.
Central Asia comes under Russian sphere of influence , unfortunately , we don't have the similar heft .
 
Central Asia comes under Russian sphere of influence , unfortunately , we don't have the similar heft .
See my amended post. Pakistan doesn’t have the clout but Iran and China combined do.

Also a trans Afghan railway would help Russia get certain commercial goods more easily, than they are currently getting, and also export more, all in the name of Central Asia. Russia is already doing it already, but this would allow them to expand it and quicker to markets in the global south, then having to run the gauntlet past NATO in the Mediterranean.

Sure they could in theory go through Iran, but Iran’s ports are more likely to be increasing sanctioned in the near future, including Chabahar.

Also timber the US still wants to cooperate with Central Asia, even post Afghan withdrawal. With Russia and Iran as greater pariahs, as seen by the west, moving into Iran/Russia’s backyards, especially vis a vi acquiring minerals.


That’s where Russian clout can be of use to Pakistan. All these neighbors together can put the right amount of pressure (carrots and sticks) on the afghans to cooperate.

For Pakistan, capitalizing on land access (not over campaign which Russia can block) to Central Asia, outside of Russia, China and Iran, is Pakistan’s strategic appeal. And now that Afghanistan is unified, whomever it is under, should mean Pakistan needs to move and aggressively so. Pakistan has paid the price of the chaos of dealing so closely with Afghanistan for 50 years to reach this point.

It is the only real way to balance India in Geo-strategic importance, and sustainably through ever increasing value added trade of minerals, growing year on year, from Afghanistan and Central Asia.

And this time, unlike the 90s, all the regional countries (to some extent even India, if they are on board with TAPI) will be supportive of this initiative. Also major western nations, especially those with large mining companies will also be on board.

 
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In the same way Russians export their petrochemicals in the name of Kazakhstan, so too could Iran link into the TAPI pipeline, in the name of a trans-central Asian pipeline to China, to be able to export to Pakistan and fulfill the requirement of a Pak-Iran pipeline. This could be what’s happening. Pakistan needs a way out of the penalty by building something but also doesn’t want to look like it’s buying from Iran as not to antagonize the US.

For Pakistan, having Iran unofficially on board would mean Afghanistan would have Iran, Pakistan, the central Asian nations, as well as China demanding the pipelines not be disrupted; all of Afghanistan’s neighbors.

Sure it sounds convoluted but Russia has done something similar for Kazakh oil and gas, so why not Iran.

Remember this news from earlier:

And the Iran Turkmen gas swap

The Russians doing it with Kazakh oil and Gas is a bit different. The reason for that is that those pipelines are soviet pipelines built ages ago, so the infrastructure was already there, secondly Kaakhastan has an issue where it cannot sell gas to anyone outside of China directly. anything that goes west is complicated by the Caspian sea, so they don't have many ways of accounting for that, so they are forced to sell the oil and gas to Russia as there is no other buyer, they end up selling it for pennies on the dollar, then russia through its infrastructure sells it to Europe for a higher price.

The Turkmen gas swap is something similar, where Iran does not have pipelines in northwest Iran in the regions there and doesn't want to put in the money to build pipelines there, so they do a gas swap instead where turkmenistan pumps the gas to that region, and they pump the equivalent into either Azerbaijan or directly into Turkey, so the money from that sale goes to Turkmenistan.

The Iranian participation in TAPI I feel is a bit unrealistic, b/c Turkmen gas is already being used, for Iran to participate, it would have to either pump gas into Afghanistan to then be carried to Pakistan or pump gas to Turkmenistan from its own fields, but Iran isn't even willing to build pipelines to North West Iran, up to the Turkmen border for its own needs, I don't see them doing that to pump Turkmenistan with Gas.

As for the China component, that is complicated, I looked into it, and the feasibility is not all that great for Pumping gas or oil from Pakistan to China via Kashmir/Gilgit-Baltistan, the geography does not favor it and the geopolitics of the location make it undesirable for China, as the Chinese have already built pipelines from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan as well as a 2 separate pipelines from Russia. They aren't too keen on building a redundant pipeline from Pakistan unfortunately.

The prospects for TAPI are more along the lines of exporting to Pakistan and then a potential LNG export terminal in Balochistan for the export of Turkmen gas, and a hypothetical connection to India(but that seems unlikely).

Pakistan in my opinion is better off completing the Iran Pakistan pipeline as its already doing, and just ignore whatever threats come from the US or Gulf States, you can't expect to be a sovereign state when you dance to the whims of foreign powers, jeopardizing your own strategic interests to please others, who never reciprocate. They want you to pay for higher gas via LNG rather than pay cheaper prices, all to please them and be dependent on them, when they never reciprocate with regards to sensitivities on their relationship with India, to the detriment of Pakistan.
 
All parties involved would actually benefit from this. Afghanistan, Pakistan and India need the energy. Pakistan and Afghanistan would benefit from the transit fees. Tajikistan gets it's gas sold.

Long term projects like TAPI and IPI built stability into our region. Increased trade, economic prosperity - all raise the bar for conflict. Gives all parties more to lose and keeps them honest in the pursuit of peace.
 
1). Our agreement with Iran has become an albatross on our neck and we don't want another one .

Its not an albatross, the problem is Pakistan doesn't behave like a sovereign state. The mentality of the Pakistani leadership is that of the Mir Jaffers put in place to manage the British Raj during colonial times. Only they have replaced the British Master with American Masters and Khaleeji masters from Saudi and the UAE.

That pipeline would decrease gas costs in Pakistan and diversify oil and gas access, the issue is with funding as obviously western funding and Gulf funding is off the table. But this can be done via Chinese loans as part of CPEC.

2) there are very good chances Pakistan is going to hit the jackpot in oil and gas ....we got to wait for a few months to get a clear picture .

The "4th largest" gas thing? I've read the story on twitter, but how credible is the story?
 
The Russians doing it with Kazakh oil and Gas is a bit different. The reason for that is that those pipelines are soviet pipelines built ages ago, so the infrastructure was already there, secondly Kaakhastan has an issue where it cannot sell gas to anyone outside of China directly. anything that goes west is complicated by the Caspian sea, so they don't have many ways of accounting for that, so they are forced to sell the oil and gas to Russia as there is no other buyer, they end up selling it for pennies on the dollar, then russia through its infrastructure sells it to Europe for a higher price.

The Turkmen gas swap is something similar, where Iran does not have pipelines in northwest Iran in the regions there and doesn't want to put in the money to build pipelines there, so they do a gas swap instead where turkmenistan pumps the gas to that region, and they pump the equivalent into either Azerbaijan or directly into Turkey, so the money from that sale goes to Turkmenistan.

The Iranian participation in TAPI I feel is a bit unrealistic, b/c Turkmen gas is already being used, for Iran to participate, it would have to either pump gas into Afghanistan to then be carried to Pakistan or pump gas to Turkmenistan from its own fields, but Iran isn't even willing to build pipelines to North West Iran, up to the Turkmen border for its own needs, I don't see them doing that to pump Turkmenistan with Gas.

As for the China component, that is complicated, I looked into it, and the feasibility is not all that great for Pumping gas or oil from Pakistan to China via Kashmir/Gilgit-Baltistan, the geography does not favor it and the geopolitics of the location make it undesirable for China, as the Chinese have already built pipelines from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan as well as a 2 separate pipelines from Russia. They aren't too keen on building a redundant pipeline from Pakistan unfortunately.

The prospects for TAPI are more along the lines of exporting to Pakistan and then a potential LNG export terminal in Balochistan for the export of Turkmen gas, and a hypothetical connection to India(but that seems unlikely).

Pakistan in my opinion is better off completing the Iran Pakistan pipeline as its already doing, and just ignore whatever threats come from the US or Gulf States, you can't expect to be a sovereign state when you dance to the whims of foreign powers, jeopardizing your own strategic interests to please others, who never reciprocate. They want you to pay for higher gas via LNG rather than pay cheaper prices, all to please them and be dependent on them, when they never reciprocate with regards to sensitivities on their relationship with India, to the detriment of Pakistan.
Pakistan has to balance its books and have the financial bandwidth to not have to go to the IMF every 3 years to be able to make those kinds of decision.

I didn’t mean for Pakistan to send gas from Pakistan to China, but for I ran to have a separate pipeline to China via Central Asia, and for Iran to splice its gas supplies into the TAPI pipeline.
 
Its not an albatross, the problem is Pakistan doesn't behave like a sovereign state. The mentality of the Pakistani leadership is that of the Mir Jaffers put in place to manage the British Raj during colonial times. Only they have replaced the British Master with American Masters and Khaleeji masters from Saudi and the UAE.

That pipeline would decrease gas costs in Pakistan and diversify oil and gas access, the issue is with funding as obviously western funding and Gulf funding is off the table. But this can be done via Chinese loans as part of CPEC.



The "4th largest" gas thing? I've read the story on twitter, but how credible is the story?
No one believes the 4th largest gas thing.
 
Is this pipeline still expected to follow the same route? Quetta to just south of Multan (if I’m not mistaken) and then on to New Delhi?
 
I didn’t mean for Pakistan to send gas from Pakistan to China, but for I ran to have a separate pipeline to China via Central Asia

Through which country? Turkmenistan? Iranians aren't willing to build that section in North West Iran for their own needs, to the point where they would rather have Turkmenistan pump the gas and then do a swap with them.

The idea that they would do all that just to pump gas into Turkmenistan seems unlikely. Not to mention Turkmenistan wants to sell its own gas to China, they have more gas than the amount they want to export already, as China is essentially the sole buyer b/c of the geographic constraints of moving the gas westwards across the Caspian, that gas is already dirt cheap, idk how economical this would be for Iran to build a pipeline that it is already hesitant to build for its own use b/c of costs, and then presumably sell the gas to Turkmenistan for even more dirt cheap prices to be competitive for turkmenistan to buy something it has an excess of, to then sell to China which it is already selling at massive discounts, due to lack of buyers..
 
Unless there's a major strategic shift in the international geopolitics India is not going to join tapi .....any plans for the pipeline must rule out India and check the feasibility of the project .....I am not sure it will work out well....Iran pipeline , with all the hassles ,is still a better option .
 
Iranian Gas would be a better and cheaper option anyday over TAPI, but Pakistan can't offend their Yankee overlords.
 
Iranian Gas would be a better and cheaper option anyday over TAPI, but Pakistan can't offend their Yankee overlords.


Iran unfortunately was always too big of a risk , Iran is always under US sanctions impossible . Problem Pakistan faces with the resource curse, most natural resources around us are within dictatorship or questionable interests? Pakistan needs to play all its cards to secure a diverse and cheap supply of natural gas. No single supplier should provide more than our energy needs. Pakistan should do more too exploit their existing supplies. And in more renewable's build energy solar farms and wind turbines on the coast. Turkmenistan has the 5th Largest gas reserves in the World. Russia is #1. They got Pipelines to China. Why don’t we try to connect to XINJIANG pipeline I’m just throwing it out their far easier to do that than the other alternatives on here.
 
Through which country? Turkmenistan? Iranians aren't willing to build that section in North West Iran for their own needs, to the point where they would rather have Turkmenistan pump the gas and then do a swap with them.

The idea that they would do all that just to pump gas into Turkmenistan seems unlikely. Not to mention Turkmenistan wants to sell its own gas to China, they have more gas than the amount they want to export already, as China is essentially the sole buyer b/c of the geographic constraints of moving the gas westwards across the Caspian, that gas is already dirt cheap, idk how economical this would be for Iran to build a pipeline that it is already hesitant to build for its own use b/c of costs, and then presumably sell the gas to Turkmenistan for even more dirt cheap prices to be competitive for turkmenistan to buy something it has an excess of, to then sell to China which it is already selling at massive discounts, due to lack of buyers..
I wouldn’t have thought Iran would have done it, except that there was the news story and the increase pariah status of Iran, making future independent sales hard.
 

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