Aftermath of the Iran-US war and its effects on proximities

[Rational Philosopher]

I am making this thread to document instances from the ongoing Iran war and how it may affect Pakistan's warfighting ability in our geographic & economic context.

Feel free to add in your own 2 cents.

Some things I've identified:

— Competent [qualitative] air forces means area-denial in the sky which can prevent sustained ariel bombing from an adversary preventing successful opening strikes

— Shahed-style cheap drones proved to be lethal and effective, decentralised, easy to use and acquire in large numbers

— Prevention of decapitation strikes is key to maintain a clear command & control structure; bunker-resistant underground military HQ similar to the Chinese-style could be solution

— Air defence will never be 100% certain but can cushion the blows, however it remains extremely costly to field in high quantities and may be uniquely difficult due to Pakistan's narrow geography. I do think Pakistan's air bases sit in an extremely vulnerable position to operate vis-a-vis India.

— Effective long-range strike weapons are key to cover far targets reliably, Pakistan lacks in this area conventionally. Examples like Israeli air-launched Sparrow family, KhorramShahr, cluster munition warheads, etc.

— Offensive capacity remains the best defence & deterrence

Side-note: A strong economic & industrial base translates to military strength, this continues to be criminally neglected in Pakistan.

 

[T80UD]

More investment into developing CUAS systems, India is planning to build it's own Shahed type drones with their industrial base they could pump out thousands of these each year.

Developing our own APKWS kits, intercepter drones perhaps getting inputs from the Ukrainians and expanding our already existing partnerships etc.

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

1. build massive underground bases under mountains across the country
2. independence in BM production specialization and vast stockpiles
3. independent and massive freshwater reservoirs
4. resilience against cyber attacks and strong ability to wage cyber war
etc etc

 

[HAIDER]

Pakistan need strong economy and stop buying luxury planes and stop this god damn iyashi ki zindiagi . Elite has already ruined Pakistan. Check 8 Pakistani demands from Saudi govt...most embarrassing ...... we need reality check

 

[Corax]

The Ukraine and Middle East conflicts suggest warfare is now all about offensive long range strike weapons (drones, cruise missiles, hypersonic, etc) vs defensive systems (SHORADS, SAMS, EW, etc), rather like sword and shield, whoever can attack and inflict maximum damage as quickly as possible vs defending as much incoming weapons as possible. Which implicitly implies having secure supply and manufacturing ecosystems. Air superiority still matters, but as conflicts are showing, this alone does not ensure achieving domination.

 

[030292]

i mentioned this in the iran vs israel/usa war thread, we need to have a contingency plan of a couple of squadrons of jf17/j10 plus an aew&c safely stationed in chinese bases to make sure all our assets dont get destroyed on the ground by sabotage and double agents by jews on the ground before we even get a chance to fire back just in case.

also a competent air defence system, we cant afford to have b2 bombers and F35 dropping ordnance at will anywhere they want on our country.

 

[T80UD]

i mentioned this in the iran vs israel/usa war thread, we need to have a contingency plan of a couple of squadrons of jf17/j10 plus an aew&c safely stationed in chinese bases to make sure all our assets dont get destroyed on the ground by sabotage and double agents by jews on the ground before we even get a chance to fire back just in case.

also a competent air defence system, we cant afford to have b2 bombers and F35 dropping ordnance at will anywhere they want on our country.

And here we have a case of misplaced priorities.

 

[Fatman17]

Thread exists already

 

[FarhanSiddiqui]

Pakistan must stand with Iran and at least supply medical and food aid to Iran.

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[Goenitz]

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[Rational Philosopher]

The Ukraine and Middle East conflicts suggest warfare is now all about offensive long range strike weapons (drones, cruise missiles, hypersonic, etc) vs defensive systems (SHORADS, SAMS, EW, etc), rather like sword and shield, whoever can attack and inflict maximum damage as quickly as possible vs defending as much incoming weapons as possible. Which implicitly implies having secure supply and manufacturing ecosystems. Air superiority still matters, but as conflicts are showing, this alone does not ensure achieving domination.

It does seem so.

Air superiority is critical in the sense that it prevents you from being completely annihiliated by sustained aerial bombings like in Iran. This can prevent that, but winning the war is more complex like you described: powerful offensive capacity and defending critical sites.

 

[LeGenD]

This thing will end soon and will have some big implications.

US will be exhuasted. Remember, as well as for this war they need to keep stockpiles for Ukraine and any Chinese confrontation. The point where it starts eating into those war reserves may have already passed.

This will be soon as a big defeat for Israel. Yes, they dominated the skys over Iran but could still not stop missiles falling on Tel Aviv. For a country that boasts of its prowess and equipped with F-15Is and F-35s and Iron Dome, that is a defeat, no two ways around it.

US reputation as Gulf Security partner will take a massive drop. Not just that they could not technically stop missiles on the GCC, but the impression was Israel came first when it came to missile defence.

Iran's standing will increase but may take a few years to recover militarily.

Gulf states will now look hard at Europe and China as potential military partners with Saudi/Pak ties increasing.

Race for nuke bomb between Iran and Saudis will be on

The US have conducted several large-scale operations in different countries since 9/11. They do not show any sign of fatigue or exhaustion. Stockpile concerns in American sources are a pressure tactic from certain quarters to convince the American MIC to ramp up production and it had the desired effect.

United States has increased production of 155 mm shells to 50,000 per month

The United States has increased production of 155 mm artillery ammunition to 50,000 per month

militarnyi.com

Lockheed Martin’s missile production in numbers

Lockheed Martin has increased its missile production as it responds to changing global dynamics. This report takes a look at the numbers.

www.calibredefence.co.uk

Lockheed Martin’s missile production in numbers

Lockheed Martin has increased its missile production as it responds to changing global dynamics. This report takes a look at the numbers.

www.calibredefence.co.uk

The ongoing war in Iran will not deplete American munitions:

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A war is a very complex development in which different types of weapons are used to produce battlefield effects. The US and Israel have achieved air superiority over Iran in a few days and they are using mass produced bombs such as JDAMs and Hellfire missiles to strike many targets in Iran. Therefore, other munition types are not overused. The US forces are also using low cost Lucas drones to attack Iranian military assets.

https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/which-suicide-drone-is-better-shahed-vs-lucas-what-you-need-to-know-1.500465180

People see some impacts in Tel Aviv or Dubai or other cities and assume that the every ballistic missile or drone is getting through. It is not true. The 'explosions' often heard and mentioned in tweets are a crude description of intercepts, and resulting debris can fall over Public property and cause some damage. The UAE showed a breakdown to explain what is happening. Many accounts are also showing events in older conflicts and passing them on as 'recent' in the ongoing war. Fact-checking is slow - not catching up with retweeting activity. There are also a number of Social Media personalities offering bad or sensational analysis to gain followers and earn money. Any sensible observer will not be quick to jump to a conclusion.

War in Iran will pan out very differently from war in Ukraine. Air Power will show results once again. The US will remain strong in the Middle East while Iran is in serious trouble much like Iraq in 1991.

The Ukraine and Middle East conflicts suggest warfare is now all about offensive long range strike weapons (drones, cruise missiles, hypersonic, etc) vs defensive systems (SHORADS, SAMS, EW, etc), rather like sword and shield, whoever can attack and inflict maximum damage as quickly as possible vs defending as much incoming weapons as possible. Which implicitly implies having secure supply and manufacturing ecosystems. Air superiority still matters, but as conflicts are showing, this alone does not ensure achieving domination.

See above.

War in Ukraine have devolved into drone warfare because neither side have air superiority there. Air Power showed results in Venezuela and it is very likely to show results in Iran. You are correct to point out that defenses should be good enough to reduce losses but Air Power will turn the tide eventually.

 

[Yasser76]

The US have conducted several large-scale operations in different countries since 9/11. They do not show any sign of fatigue or exhaustion. Stockpile concerns in American sources are a pressure tactic from certain quarters to convince the American MIC to ramp up production and it had the desired effect.

United States has increased production of 155 mm shells to 50,000 per month

The United States has increased production of 155 mm artillery ammunition to 50,000 per month

militarnyi.com

Lockheed Martin’s missile production in numbers

Lockheed Martin has increased its missile production as it responds to changing global dynamics. This report takes a look at the numbers.

www.calibredefence.co.uk

Lockheed Martin’s missile production in numbers

Lockheed Martin has increased its missile production as it responds to changing global dynamics. This report takes a look at the numbers.

www.calibredefence.co.uk

The ongoing war in Iran will not deplete American munitions:

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

A war is a very complex development in which different types of weapons are used to produce battlefield effects. The US and Israel have achieved air superiority over Iran in a few days and they are using mass produced bombs such as JDAMs and Hellfire missiles to strike many targets in Iran. Therefore, other munition types are not overused. The US forces are also using low cost Lucas drones to attack Iranian military assets.

https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/which-suicide-drone-is-better-shahed-vs-lucas-what-you-need-to-know-1.500465180

People see some impacts in Tel Aviv or Dubai or other cities and assume that the every ballistic missile or drone is getting through. It is not true. The 'explosions' often heard and mentioned in tweets are a crude description of intercepts, and resulting debris can fall over Public property and cause some damage. The UAE showed a breakdown to explain what is happening. Many accounts are also showing events in older conflicts and passing them on as 'recent' in the ongoing war. Fact-checking is slow - not catching up with retweeting activity. There are also a number of Social Media personalities offering bad or sensational analysis to gain followers and earn money. Any sensible observer will not be quick to jump to a conclusion.

War in Iran will pan out very differently from war in Ukraine. Air Power will show results once again. The US will remain strong in the Middle East while Iran is in serious trouble much like Iraq in 1991.


See above.

War in Ukraine have devolved into drone warfare because neither side have air superiority there. Air Power showed results in Venezuela and it is very likely to show results in Iran. You are correct to point out that defenses should be good enough to reduce losses but Air Power will turn the tide eventually.

Fatigue and exhuastion was what made them leave Iraq and Afghanistan.....

 

[PakFactor]

This thing will end soon and will have some big implications.

US will be exhuasted. Remember, as well as for this war they need to keep stockpiles for Ukraine and any Chinese confrontation. The point where it starts eating into those war reserves may have already passed.

This will be soon as a big defeat for Israel. Yes, they dominated the skys over Iran but could still not stop missiles falling on Tel Aviv. For a country that boasts of its prowess and equipped with F-15Is and F-35s and Iron Dome, that is a defeat, no two ways around it.

US reputation as Gulf Security partner will take a massive drop. Not just that they could not technically stop missiles on the GCC, but the impression was Israel came first when it came to missile defence.

Iran's standing will increase but may take a few years to recover militarily.

Gulf states will now look hard at Europe and China as potential military partners with Saudi/Pak ties increasing.

Race for nuke bomb between Iran and Saudis will be on

The United States is far from exhausted; politics constrain its industrial might, but if it were unrestrained, it has enough capacity on its own to produce arms that could rival those of the Europeans, Russians, and Chinese combined.

Do remember that most industrial companies are required to maintain a war-footing plan by the Department of Defense if a World War-like scenario arises.

 

[PakFactor]

Fatigue and exhuastion was what made them leave Iraq and Afghanistan.....

It wasn't; it was the Pacific Pivot to counter China.

The Iraqi government is beholden to the United States, as the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York manages Iraq's oil revenues and any budgetary needs. Iraq doesn't have control of its own exchequer.

There was nothing else to gain in Afghanistan; while the U.S. Forces were stationed, the Taliban were living in the mountains herding their flock of goats. The Afghan National Army was there just for their paycheck; they folded right away, a choice the Afghans made on their own.

Lastly, in regard to the Taliban, a problem left for Pakistan to deal with and bleed.