Aftermath of the Iran-US war and its effects on proximities

[Taimoor]

Ah yes, the "firewall of hell". That should be easy to create. Got it.

You want to delete your last reply since now you have read my comment in entirety?

 

[VCheng]

You want to delete your last reply since now you have read my comment in entirety?

No, since what you prescribe is pie-in-the-sky thinking. Making it a reality remains a problem.

 

[RescueRanger]

#bargain


I have tried these and they are honestly better than Pana Force foods MRE.

 

[Yasser76]

This thing will end soon and will have some big implications.

US will be exhuasted. Remember, as well as for this war they need to keep stockpiles for Ukraine and any Chinese confrontation. The point where it starts eating into those war reserves may have already passed.

This will be soon as a big defeat for Israel. Yes, they dominated the skys over Iran but could still not stop missiles falling on Tel Aviv. For a country that boasts of its prowess and equipped with F-15Is and F-35s and Iron Dome, that is a defeat, no two ways around it.

US reputation as Gulf Security partner will take a massive drop. Not just that they could not technically stop missiles on the GCC, but the impression was Israel came first when it came to missile defence.

Iran's standing will increase but may take a few years to recover militarily.

Gulf states will now look hard at Europe and China as potential military partners with Saudi/Pak ties increasing.

Race for nuke bomb between Iran and Saudis will be on

 

[Taimoor]

No, since what you prescribe is pie-in-the-sky thinking. Making it a reality remains a problem.

Then you should have gone straight to the issues you have with my post rather asking me silly question.

 

[VCheng]

you should have gone straight to the issues

I did. What you say should be done has no realistic way of being achieved.

 

[RescueRanger]

This thing will end soon and will have some big implications.

Its not going to end anytime soon, and not in the way many people are thinking. The region and the world will never be the same.

 

[Yasser76]

Its not going to end anytime soon, and not in the way many people are thinking. The region and the world will never be the same.

I disagree. It has been just over a week and people in the West are very fed up already. Iraq and Afghanistan still linger in minds here, and there is no real objectives. Iran has not collapsed like they hope for and economic pain in starting in Europe and US.

It now really feels like every bomb the US now drops is harming itself more then Iran....

 

[VCheng]

Its not going to end anytime soon, and not in the way many people are thinking. The region and the world will never be the same.

Even if the war were to end now, the changes that have happened, and that have been triggered, ensures that the world will never be the same again. This is the Canadian PM's "rupture in the world order" times a thousand.

 

[ziaulislam]

yes but these are all long term objectives, what I am saying, since May 1998, what progress we have made towards our nuke program, or , in worst case, have we frozen it to 98 levels since we are only "India centric"? There has to be some debate internally in Pakistan to start asking questions from powers to be. Iran agreed to zero enrichment, yet still getting bombed. Our "India centric" churn will not save us. Today's world is simply not compatible with our long stated policy.

100%
You need to rebuild your economy
Try to decouple from america only
Decouple from IMF, American payment system
Focus on china Europe and africa along with usa
Build nuclear triad and rebuild military around modern drones/anti drones systems

 

[ziaulislam]

I disagree. It has been just over a week and people in the West are very fed up already. Iraq and Afghanistan still linger in minds here, and there is no real objectives. Iran has not collapsed like they hope for and economic pain in starting in Europe and US.

It now really feels like every bomb the US now drops is harming itself more then Iran....

Cnn poll shows 41% support

People in west may ne fed up but don't underestimate Christians evenglicals..

 

[Yasser76]

Cnn poll shows 41% support

People in west may ne fed up but don't underestimate Christians evenglicals..

41% is low for the first week. Wait another week.

Here in the UK even the Islamaphobic nutjobs in Reform are not supporting this

 

[ziaulislam]

41% is low for the first week. Wait another week.

Here in the UK even the Islamaphobic nutjobs in Reform are not supporting this

They have figured this out

They can bomb without any restrains or restrictions untill there is nothing left

People dont know or care about the money spent as they dont care about in gaza where west spent billions in support

 

[mythbuster]

Iran wasn’t lacking in military strength; Iran’s miscalculation is to follow in the footsteps of Saddam regime. While Saddam regime was secular, Iranian clerics regarded Arabs as useless and corrupt and came up with a theological rationale to expand its influence in the Middle East and liberate Palestine. Recall the 2006 Lebanon War? Hezbollah started it, the agenda was to test Israel. Iranian clerics pushed the narrative that Hezbollah have bested Israel. Not just them, many Muslims accepted that narrative and cheered for Hezbollah. However, that war paved way for Netanyahu to gain power and he focused on improving the IDF at all levels and to prepare for the inevitable.

Iran is a massive, well-organized and a heavily militarized country. They had ample time to develop a new war machine that combines conventional and asymmetric approaches in warfare. They have created deeply buried weapon(s) storage compounds that are large enough to house ballistic missiles. Iranian ballistic missile force is among the largest in the world with few rivals in sheer quantity and quality, much bigger than the Pakistani ballistic missile force. They have created some of the most sophisticated ballistic missiles in the SRBM, MRBM and IRBM class. They can also launch satellites unlike Pakistan. They have created a massive drone force on top of that (both Russia and the US took an interest in the Iranian Shahed class and reverse engineered them). They have developed new A2/AD systems. They were expanding their navy with locally manufactured ships of different sizes including a massive drone carrier.

Iran could not develop an advanced Air Force due to sanctions. Russia and China provided radars and A2/AD systems but not jet fighters. Therefore, Iran focused on mass producing ballistic missiles and drones to project power instead. They can use these tools to attack military infrastructure (tactical applications) and wreck entire cities (strategic applications).

Iran also expanded its strategic depth in the Middle East by creating armed groups in different countries. The US-led forces carried out regime change in Iraq, but Iran tapped the Iraqi Shiite base to influence Iraq. From there, Iran expanded its influence in Syria by deployed the IRGC and Hezbollah to support Assad regime. From there, Iran convinced Hamas in Gaza to join its so-called axis of resistance aimed to surround Israel. The GCC-led forces attempted to defeat the Houthi in Yemen but failed to do that because Iran was supporting the Houthi. The GCC-led forces could not challenge Iran because Iran is too big to fight. The KSA reached out to the US for support, but the US-led forces were preoccupied with the ISIL networks in Iraq and Syria and Obama was not willing to open another front due to that. Pakistan also refused to help in Yemen. These observations convinced many in Iran that they are unstoppable and on the verge of fulfilling a prophesy. Recall a hadith about Khorasan black banners that will reach Israel? Theological rationale 101.

Hamas improved its military wing and felt emboldened to attack Israel with support of Iran, but they provided Netanyahu an opportunity to fight back with the intensity he craved. This war led to destruction in Gaza followed by regime change in Syria; the tide turned and the Iran-led axis of resistance suffered a setback. Iran ended up exposing itself in the aftermath.

They assumed that the US is retreating from the Middle East and underestimated Israel. The US retreated from Afghanistan after eliminating the perpetrators of 9/11 and Doha Accords with the Taliban regime; this decision does not suggest that the US is retreating from the Middle East. The US have strategic partnerships in the Middle East, which will be upheld. The US reduced its strategic vulnerability and freed up resources by retreating from Afghanistan; the US also exposed the Taliban regime in the process. Now Pakistan finds itself in a conflict situation with the Taliban regime and Iran have nothing to exploit there.

Trump is very smart, a strategist. He flipped the script in Latin America and the Middle East. Iran is now up against the US-Israel duo in war. The US not only have unmatched experience in warfare and technological supremacy but can fight Iran on its terms in the present with strategic depth of its own. Iran have struck some American military bases, but it has little impact on the American war machine. Iranian forces and regime elements are suffering heavy losses instead.

I am surprised that nobody learned a lesson from the downfall of the Saddam regime, a regional power of its time that the US-led forces dismantled eventually. The lesson for all is to stay in your respective lane and choose your battles wisely. Fight, when necessary, instead of coming up with a plan to fulfill a prophesy. Underestimating the enemy having a proven war machine and lot of resources? What could possibly go wrong? Even in our case, some have exaggerated view of our options.

On the point of Mullahs in power, they have created a mess everywhere. They are not lacking in understanding warfare, they are rather belligerent and careless. But some still look up to them for guidance and direction.

I missed this good write up ...I don't know if you remember , I posted here a year ago that ( in a discussion with you ) Hezbollah will be finished and Lebanon will have her writ established over all of her territory...Assad regime will be removed and Iran will be screwed... well, it happened exactly as I said.... another prediction ! Iran is toast.... there's is no threat to Pakistan or Turkey from Israel.... Israel will be more than happy to have normal relationship with Pakistan...

 

[mythbuster]

Pakistan has launched operation , Mahafiz up Bahar ' to protect the sea lanes ... it's a significant development.