Bangladesh: Analyzing Hasina era Adani Power Deal

[SoulSpokesman]

Electricity Crisis: Bangladesh's Largest Thermal Power Plant Payra Shutting Down | NewsClick

This is the first time the Payra power plant has been shut down since it began operations three years ago.

www.newsclick.in

Please check this @LeonBlack08 Payra got shut down in May 2023 because of coal shortage, well before any substantial moneys were paid to Godda.

Do also remember that gas and furnace oil still accounted for over 70% of your offtake in FY 23 (dont know figures for FY 24). How is Adani any more expensive than 70% of your power?

Regards

 

[LeonBlack08]

Electricity Crisis: Bangladesh's Largest Thermal Power Plant Payra Shutting Down | NewsClick

This is the first time the Payra power plant has been shut down since it began operations three years ago.

www.newsclick.in

Please check this @LeonBlack08 Payra got shut down in May 2023 because of coal shortage, well before any substantial moneys were paid to Godda.

Regards

It became opeartional again within 20 days.

Payra Power Plant resumes operations after 20 days

Payra Power Plant has resumed its operation from this morning after being closed for 20 days due to coal shortage

www.thedailystar.net

Again - you are moving away from the core issue of the need for Adani deal and pointing fingers at other issues to create diversion.

 

[LeonBlack08]

@LeonBlack08

My understanding is

Adani payments were always made with a 6-9 month gap.
Secondly, BD was getting power in return.
Finally, even if the own power plants were lying idle they too would be getting capacity charges.

If publicly owned - then not capacity charge, but of course you would have fixed overheads to pay for. It would still be lower than capacity charge payment to Adani or any private entity.

All three local plants were public-private partnerships. Only Adani was completely private.

This is why I keep comparing the Adani deal with that of the arrangement with local private entity Summit Group - which is owned by an ex BAL MP and minister - who made a fortune charging capacity fees for his gasoline based small power plants.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

Not at all, Leonblack. I am asserting that the SHW govt was right in going for Godda irrespective of Payra, Rampal and Roopur. It is still better than going for gas and FO based power.

Capacity charge and fixed overheads are more or less synonyms once you build in the implicit return on equity. Since you are wise enough to know the concept of opportunity cost, you will have no difficulty in believing it.

Regards

 

[LeonBlack08]

Not at all, Leonblack. I am asserting that the SHW govt was right in going for Godda irrespective of Payra, Rampal and Roopur. It is still better than going for gas and FO based power.

Capacity charge and fixed overheads are more or less synonyms once you build in the implicit return on equity. Since you are wise enough to know the concept of opportunity cost, you will have no difficulty in believing it.

Regards

There is absolutely no way Capacity charge of a third party provider will be same as the fixed overhead cost internally.

A third party will always factor in their lost revenue, in addition to the fixed overhead such as interest, bills etc. for sitting idle when determining the capacity charge in the contract negotiation.

But that's not the same case for State owned entities.

 

[BananaRepublic]

There is absolutely no way Capacity charge of a third party provider will be same as the fixed overhead cost internally.

A third party will always factor in their lost revenue, in addition to the fixed overhead such as interest, bills etc. for sitting idle when determining the capacity charge in the contract negotiation.

But that's not the same case for State owned entities.

@SoulSpokesman has answered all of your points. Which are absolutely valid questions to pose.

Just to add, capacity charge is a combination of sink cost and overhead.

Btw, it is now well established that public private partnerships results in the worst of both worlds. Debt is on the government books and lot of admin costs aren’t counted against the project.

Government has limited money to invest hence it should not invest in sectors that can attract private investment and can absorb elastic price.

Also, as I have highlighted, Adani power deals are better than the deals China has done with its Israel.

The juvenile delinquents have no track record to compare.

Once you have a record - we will be happy to compare Hasina regime with the IG and beyond.

We all remember the 24/7 load shedding under BNP/Jamat and military governments - which pegged back economic growth.

 

[LeonBlack08]

@SoulSpokesman has answered all of your points. Which are absolutely valid questions to pose.

Just to add, capacity charge is a combination of sink cost and overhead.

Btw, it is now well established that public private partnerships results in the worst of both worlds. Debt is on the government books and lot of admin costs aren’t counted against the project.

Government has limited money to invest hence it should not invest in sectors that can attract private investment and can absorb elastic price.

Also, as I have highlighted, Adani power deals are better than the deals China has done with its Israel.

The juvenile delinquents have no track record to compare.

Once you have a record - we will be happy to compare Hasina regime with the IG and beyond.

We all remember the 24/7 load shedding under BNP/Jamat and military governments - which pegged back economic growth.

You are all over the place. Get a coherent post together first, then we can have discussion.

Also - this discussion is regarding the merit of the Adani deal.

Do not try to divert with your word salad to drag it into something else, as you have tried here.

 

[UKBengali]

We all remember the 24/7 load shedding under BNP/Jamat and military governments - which pegged back economic growth.

To be fair BD was a much poorer country then and at that level of economic development that is quite normal.

IG and Adani should release the contract details and even if the previous government have agreed to secrecy(why?) this should be ignored as this cannot be binding on successive government's.

 

[BananaRepublic]

You are all over the place. Get a coherent post together first, then we can have discussion.

Also - this discussion is regarding the merit of the Adani deal.

Do not try to divert with your word salad to drag it into something else, as you have tried here.

You guys are trying to rewrite history and don’t like it when we remind you what it was like.

You are literally erasing history.

Again my posts are being deleted lol

 

[BananaRepublic]

To be fair BD was a much poorer country then and at that level of economic development that is quite normal.

IG and Adani should release the contract details and even if the previous government have agreed to secrecy(why?) this should be ignored as this cannot be binding on successive government's.

It was a poor country because of load shedding and poor infrastructure in general.

It’s cause and effect.

 

[LeonBlack08]

You guys are trying to rewrite history and don’t like it when we remind you what it was like.

You are literally erasing history.

Again my posts are being deleted lol

Again, stay on topic. No one asked you for history lesson. I have lived in Bangladesh long enough to know very well how it was under both BAL and BNP regimes multiple times.

If your post was deleted, it was for a valid reason. If you want to challenge it, raise it up in GHQ.

 

[PakFactor]

You are one of the few people who uses logic and is rational.

Thanks, Kola bhai although I think that title belongs to you, UKB dada, @Meengla @PakFactor and a few others.

However when the planning was done, no one expected that BD economy would have had many years in the early 2020s of sub-7% growth.

Exactly, countries must prepare for growth as it must for disasters. No one in late 2010s could have seen the double whammy of the Chinavirus and Ukr.

Regards

Thanks for your kind words.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Again, stay on topic. No one asked you for history lesson. I have lived in Bangladesh long enough to know very well how it was under both BAL and BNP regimes multiple times.

If your post was deleted, it was for a valid reason. If you want to challenge it, raise it up in GHQ.

You still have not provided any proof that Adani deal is worse than similar deals done by other countries in the region.

All you have provided are innuendos and hunches - which has been debunked by me, @UKBengali and @SoulSpokesman .

I suggest you hurry the IG to provide the proof - it’s been months of blabbering like price of coal without stating the quality of the coals being compared.

You guys are self confessed India haters. So, by definition anything associated with India is bad.

The India derangement syndrome leads you to chase all sorts of conspiracy theories.

Anyway, enough on this thread until you guys come up with solid proof!

 

[LeonBlack08]

You still have not provided any proof that Adani deal is worse than similar deals done by other countries in the region.

All you have provided are innuendos and hunches - which has been debunked by me, @UKBengali and @SoulSpokesman .

I suggest you hurry the IG to provide the proof - it’s been months of blabbering like price of coal without stating the quality of the coals being compared.

You guys are self confessed India haters. So, by definition anything associated with India is bad.

The India derangement syndrome leads you to chase all sorts of conspiracy theories.

Anyway, enough on this thread until you guys come up with solid proof!

Why do I have to compare it with other countries?

I have given plenty of evidence to support why it was not for Bangladesh's best interest. Including a research paper from US-based Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) who compared the price difference in different plants in Bangladesh and India.

https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Adani-Godda-Power-Project-April_2018.pdf

And the report from AJ who claimed to have reviewed the contract -

Redirect Notice

Also, price isn't the only factor. The history of BAL regime overestimation of power needs and the Capacity Charge billionaires it created through the process by the way of quick power rental corruption schemes. The timeline of when it came to operation vs what was promised is also a factor. Then comes the import of coal from Adani 's Australian operations for a power plant in a coal rich state in India. Finally comes how Modi endorsement in 2015 played a part.

You have seen all the posts and yet here are acting naive and out with your nonsensical rant. If you choose to intentionally ignore arguments presented to you, I can't help you. You have to date have yet to present any proof apart from doling out accusations. You are being insincere and I have no reason to waste my time responding to you.

 

[c14-Isotope]

Why do I have to compare it with other countries?

I have given plenty of evidence to support why it was not for Bangladesh's best interest. Including a research paper from US-based Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) who compared the price difference in different plants in Bangladesh and India.

https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Adani-Godda-Power-Project-April_2018.pdf

And the report from AJ who claimed to have reviewed the contract -

Redirect Notice

Also, price isn't the only factor. The history of BAL regime overestimation of power needs and the Capacity Charge billionaires it created through the process by the way of quick power rental corruption schemes. The timeline of when it came to operation vs what was promised is also a factor. Then comes the import of coal from Adani 's Australian operations for a power plant in a coal rich state in India. Finally comes how Modi endorsement in 2015 played a part.

You have seen all the posts and yet here are acting naive and out with your nonsensical rant. If you choose to intentionally ignore arguments presented to you, I can't help you. You have to date have yet to present any proof apart from doling out accusations. You are being insincere and I have no reason to waste my time responding to you.

2018 report, but plant got commissioned in 2023!
And why would you compare power generation costs in two different countries? Why should Adani provide you electricity at India's rate and not at Bangladesh's rate? - from where does this entitlement come from?
That T-shirt you export to USA costs the same in Bangladesh?

There is an annual BPDB report that publishes generation costs for every power plant, why wouldn't you cite that instead of some random abba dabba jabba reports?