BRICS will not create a currency, but the yuan may become convertible 
December 2, 2024
The idea of a common BRICS currency has been discussed for a long time, but the member countries still take no concrete, serious steps to establish a true alternative to the U.S. dollar. Donald Trump’s warning to BRICS that he would impose 100% tariffs if they abandon the dollar is more targeted toward the American audience. This was commented on by Nikolay Stoykov, managing partner at Alaric Securities, on the program
“Business Start” with host Hristo Nikolov.
Within the BRICS group, “only China has a currency that is stable in the long term, with relatively low interest rates, and there is a significant alignment between the yuan and other global currencies. What prevents the yuan from becoming a global currency is simply that China does not want to allow it. An alternative to the dollar is being sought, but Russia drives this search. If China truly wanted an alternative to the dollar, it would have made the yuan convertible,” Stoykov noted.
The U.S. dollar’s position as the leading global reserve currency brings a degree of stability in terms of interest rates and helps American companies conduct business worldwide. However, the dollar’s global market dominance has not strengthened in recent years, with the euro increasing its share at the expense of the Japanese yen and British pound, Stoykov said.
Beijing likely does not want the yuan to be fully convertible to maintain complete control over its currency. However, this will eventually happen because the economy will grow large enough to mitigate any negative currency effects, Stoykov believes.
“I’m not very optimistic about a new BRICS currency, but I am relatively optimistic that sooner or later, the Chinese yuan will become convertible and start trading at levels close to the euro. I’m not convinced it will displace the dollar,” he added.
Donald Trump has nominated prominent investor Scott Besant for Treasury Secretary, a move widely seen as pro-business, with expectations of reduced regulations. Most analysts predict that the tariffs Trump frequently mentions will not have significant consequences for trade balances; these tariffs serve more as a message for domestic consumption and a threat to foreign partners. Imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods imported to the U.S. would be very damaging to the American economy—a fact understood by everyone, including Trump, Stoykov added.
The euro is undervalued compared to the dollar and has the potential to rise by 4%-5% in the coming months, Stoykov said.
“I don’t anticipate much volatility. We’re all waiting for the new president, Trump, to take office and reveal his policies, so I don’t expect the dollar to continue strengthening in the next three months. I anticipate the euro to appreciate gradually.”
You can watch the video to see how markets are reacting to the political crisis in France and whether global trade wars will escalate.
Nikolay Stoykov, Managing Partner at Alaric Securities on ‘Business Start’ The idea of a common BRICS currency has been discussed for a long time, but the member countries still take no concrete, serious steps to ...
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