Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked

[AZ_HighCountry]

weird as in thinking you can wipe out coastal China? Alot EASIER huh, so much so that we don't see US 'defending' Ukraine? Heck the Russian don't even have a proper navy now. LOL

A lot of their surface fleet was promoted to submarine.

 

[j_hungary]

There was a War stimulation by Rand Corporation which I had read a few years ago.

I am not an expert in military but in that article, US kept losing. Then they changed the stimulation to make US stronger and China weaker by setting the following.
Every missiles by the F22 hits the target 100%. Yet US still loses.
Why?
China coastal air defence is so advance, US only have a few asset that can penetrate it like F22.
All 7 US bases in Korea and Japan will be destroyed by China's artilleries. Bases are not hardened. F22 is based in Guam (If still not destroy) and needs 3 refuels to reach Taiwan theater and have little loitering time.

China, on the other hand has up to 41 bases within reach of Taiwan! So even if F22 score 100% hits, China can still use the infra red targeting to shot them as they return to base.



Now all of a sudden, you start to read reports of stimulations where its a draw or US wining. Something changed ?

Assuming you were talking about the RAND 2020 wargame.

First of all, that game start with the limitation that US force supply link is completely cut off. And the FROP is started all the way back in Hawaii. Which in reality it mostly not goin to be the case because first, that will bring Japan into the war, and second, the supply link will most likely shift to the Marianas if by any means cut off from Japan.

And then they started to do deep strike scenario and F-22 was being challenged by SAM (Which is not a part of Deep strike by the way as F-22 IS an air superiority fighter)

And if I remember correctly that war game ends with China abandoning their beachhead after it became unsustainable

 

[j_hungary]

A lot of their surface fleet was promoted to submarine.

Just ignore him man, he think China can send a bunch of fishing ship ashore and engage the Taiwanese with "Special Force"........AND CONTROL THE COAST........

I mean, you can talk to stupids but you can never make them make sense.......

 

[Han Patriot]

Just ignore him man, he think China can send a bunch of fishing ship ashore and engage the Taiwanese with "Special Force"........AND CONTROL THE COAST........

I mean, you can talk to stupids but you can never make them make sense.......

hey Gary,

Talking about stupids, are

1) Imaging sats and GPS sats the same? You were talking so expertly on satellite movements, orbit bla bla copy pasting from site, so why not explain to us how they are the same satellite.

2) Care to explain to us why you said MSC/MAERSK are still delivering directly to Ukrainian ports?

3) Please explain to us how tomahawks from your whole friggin fleet can destroy 'Chinese cities'?

You said I did not provide reference? I remember I gave you an article showing you the calculation for both building damage and human fatalities radius, I also provided you the latest vessel tracking for Ukrainian ports showing NO commercial ships present. Here let me refresh you memory BELOW. I also showed you an article proving to you the Houthis admitted to attacking a previously BRITISH owned vessel that was flagged in PANAMA.



SEE THAT BIG EMPTY VOID. uH HUH, naval blockade does not involve PORTS huh! =)

Remember the calculator for blast radius for a single TOMAHWAK with 500kg warhead, here let me attach it AGAIN to refresh your memory since you said I gave you NO REFERENCE.

Blast Damage Estimation | International Ammunition Technical Guidelines

unsaferguard.org

100 Burkes x 128 missiles = 12800 missiles x 400sqm
= 5'000'000 sqm
= 5 sqkm

Size of Xiamen = 1700 sqkm
Assuming 1/4 are buildings = 400 sqkm

Total destruction assuming 100% success
and assuming 0 A/D = 5/400 x 100
= 1.25%

With so much allowance, you can only destroy 1.25% of Xiamen. That's also assuming all your missiles are used for attacking China using heavy 500kg warheads, none are left for AD and AS and Chinese Navy/AF is tying their hands behind their backs and not sinking your ships. LOL

Btw, are LNGs still transported in pipelines?LOL

 

[Han Patriot]

A lot of their surface fleet was promoted to submarine.

Exactly my point, they were using a tin can carrier to fight in Syria, you got to give it to them for fighting with the bare minimum, and yet the STRONK USA is no where to be seen. Now imagine fighting against the world's largest industrial base producing missiles like chocolate and DRONES.

 

[Han Patriot]

Dude, you REALLY need to read your article and not meddle with the title......\




View attachment 83633

As part of my job in a strategic think tank, I have read ALMOST all war gaming report between a possible war with China and Taiwan, and done one myself with a team Field Grade officer, none of them, including the one I have involved with, where I was team China, has China win if US was directly involved. US would have suffer heavy casualty but the outcome is almost the same, the entire Chinese fleet will be destroyed. and Chinese coastal city suffer major destruction..

Strategic think tank? If this is how Australia is getting advice, from someone who can't tell the difference between an imaging sat and a GPS, I fear for their future！ LOL

 

[liuzhengdong]

lol, sure.........

Whatever man, you guys live in a weird dimension. But then again, kind of hope this is how the PLA think and how war works, because that would make things A LOT easier for everybody.....

Well I mean some Chinese here seems to think this is possible

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China has begun to verify its amphibious unmanned mechanized forces, but you still think it is impossible. Photos of China's amphibious unmanned landing vehicles are placed in front of you, but you pretend not to see them. You still believe that China used the human wave tactics of World War II to land.
Before the first flight of China's sixth-generation aircraft, you also believed that China could not develop a sixth-generation aircraft, so your simulations did not include China's sixth-generation aircraft and unmanned amphibious mechanized forces.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Just ignore him man, he think China can send a bunch of fishing ship ashore and engage the Taiwanese with "Special Force"........AND CONTROL THE COAST........

I mean, you can talk to stupids but you can never make them make sense.......

It's the strategy from day one

Mind the Gap: How China’s Civilian Shipping Could Enable a Taiwan Invasion

Recent months have seen much discussion of the “Davidson Window” — the idea, based on recent commentary by the then-commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific

warontherocks.com

China’s Maritime Militia and Fishing Fleets

China uses its maritime militia and fishing fleets as policy instruments to bridge the economic, informational, and military realms. Two PhD candidates provide a thorough discussion on China’s maritime policies and activities; the strategic uses, strengths, and limitations of China’s maritime...

www.armyupress.army.mil

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/china-is-using-civilian-ships-to-enhance-navy-capability-and-reach.html

To Invade Taiwan, The Chinese Navy Could Mobilize The World’s Biggest Transport Fleet

The Chinese navy now has access to 1.5 million tons of shipping that could carry an assault force across the Taiwan Strait and initiate an invasion of Taiwan.

www.forbes.com

 

[j_hungary]

It's the strategy from day one

Mind the Gap: How China’s Civilian Shipping Could Enable a Taiwan Invasion

Recent months have seen much discussion of the “Davidson Window” — the idea, based on recent commentary by the then-commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific

warontherocks.com

China’s Maritime Militia and Fishing Fleets

China uses its maritime militia and fishing fleets as policy instruments to bridge the economic, informational, and military realms. Two PhD candidates provide a thorough discussion on China’s maritime policies and activities; the strategic uses, strengths, and limitations of China’s maritime...

www.armyupress.army.mil

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/26/china-is-using-civilian-ships-to-enhance-navy-capability-and-reach.html

To Invade Taiwan, The Chinese Navy Could Mobilize The World’s Biggest Transport Fleet

The Chinese navy now has access to 1.5 million tons of shipping that could carry an assault force across the Taiwan Strait and initiate an invasion of Taiwan.

www.forbes.com

Well, again, if this is your strategy from day one.........

Did you get your idea from World in Conflict?? LOL

 

[j_hungary]

China has begun to verify its amphibious unmanned mechanized forces, but you still think it is impossible. Photos of China's amphibious unmanned landing vehicles are placed in front of you, but you pretend not to see them. You still believe that China used the human wave tactics of World War II to land.
Before the first flight of China's sixth-generation aircraft, you also believed that China could not develop a sixth-generation aircraft, so your simulations did not include China's sixth-generation aircraft and unmanned amphibious mechanized forces.

I didn't pretend not to see it.

I am saying this is pointless. Do you know what's fighting a drone war is like? Be it aerial drone or ground/naval based drone? It's like trying to fight a war from the perspective of a camera lenses. Because that is what drone going to do, it focuses on a part of battlefield.

As I said, if you think this is going to do anything but jam up the beach trying to find target, be my guest lol.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Well, again, if this is your strategy from day one.........

Did you get your idea from World in Conflict?? LOL

Taiwan itself knows it'll be swarmed by tens of thousands civilian ships in case of war. Those fishing ships also regularly go to South China Sea to assist Chinese navy.

 

[Beijingwalker]

Thousands of Chinese fishing boats rush to Scarborough Shoal in South China Sea

Learning a dozen of Philippio fishing boats provoked the Chinese coast guard vessels, thousands of Chinese fishing boats are rushing to Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea to counter Philippio ships and support Chinese coast guards.

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[Beijingwalker]

350,000 fishing boats sail to Taiwan to "fish" from Fujian province

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[Beijingwalker]

350,000 fishing boats sail to Taiwan to "fish" from Fujian province

 

[SolarWarden]

When nuclear weapons are not used, China has a larger military.

Answer is no USA cannot defeat China, as China improves it's military technology.

By 2030, China should be on par with USA technologically.

Lol. Are you suggesting the US is going to sit idling waiting for the chicoms to catch up? Oh puh-leeze use some logic. If the US decided to let chicoms catch up it would take the 2040s and that is a conservative estimation.


Catching up to US level is never going to happen for many many reason one of them being the chicoms are not innovators of technology but replicators.