China Can Beat the U.S. Air Force in a War

[UKBengali]

China should 'worry' about Taiwan 2027 timeline, J-20 is just 'OK' fighter: PACAF chief - Breaking Defense

“China has a much more difficult military problem from the standpoint of, they have to accomplish one of the most difficult military events that you would have to do," said Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach. “If I was them, I'd be worried. If I was a [Chinese] military commander, I'd be worried about 2027.”

breakingdefense.com

While the J-20 is certainly more capable than the Su-57, the US Air Force isn’t really all that concerned about the J-20.

Is the US Air-Force concerned about J-20s being equipped with WS-15 engines and if not why not?

What can they possibly know that this machine is no threat to them as its stealth, radar and electronics is all kept under wraps.

I think F-35 and even F-22 pilots would be more than concerned about coming face to face with one of these J-20s sporting twin WS-15 engines.

 

[UKBengali]

So just because China built a car that looks like a Mercedes/Rolls in Hongqi-H9 doesn't mean it's a Mercedes/Rolls in quality performance. Same with Chinese stealth fighters and AESA radars just because they have them doesn't mean they have the capability/performance of US stealth fighters and AESA radars.

So you have some top secret information on the capabilities of both US F-22 and Chinese J-20 and know about the relative capabilities of both US and Chinese AESA radars?

No-one on this planet knows the answer to this question right now and they will not till there is a full war between US and China.

 

[last-soul]

China is struggling to control tiny little Taiwan and here folks are suggesting they can take on USAF?!?!

 

[SolarWarden]

Military experts agree that the greatest advantage of China is that its fighter planes would be fighting near its home bases in mainland China and the artificial islands it built in the SCS.

Who are these military experts? Do they know these airbases that China will use in Taiwan conflict, which is about 6-9, are all within range of Taiwan missiles?



Chinese military is just like the Russian military before it invaded Ukraine... They both look good in parades, weapons expos and staged combat exercises for cameras and look how it turned out for Russia. Everyone including me thought Russia would run over Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine Taiwan has teeth and can strike back hard and chairman-Xi knows it.


If Ukraine had half of what Taiwan has in military Russia would have unlikely invaded.

 

[lightning f57]

Who are these military experts? Do they know these airbases that China will use in Taiwan conflict, which is about 6-9, are all within range of Taiwan missiles?
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Chinese military is just like the Russian military before it invaded Ukraine... They both look good in parades, weapons expos and staged combat exercises for cameras and look how it turned out for Russia. Everyone including me thought Russia would run over Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine Taiwan has teeth and can strike back hard and chairman-Xi knows it.


If Ukraine had half of what Taiwan has in military Russia would have unlikely invaded.

Taiwan can be leveled without even the chinese landing in Taiwan, the Taiwanese wont have sufficient arsensal to sustain a longer war, Ukraine cant work in this context as Taiwan ahead of any invasion would be under a blockade.

The US has got use to destroying mud huts and bombing countries that cant strike back. We see how they react when they know the result will be overwhelming destruction even if they will win. Its the same over Taiwan. There will be no stomach for a long war like the Russia Ukraine conflict as China has the biggest advantage in this theatre.

 

[SolarWarden]

Taiwan can be leveled without even the chinese landing in Taiwan, the Taiwanese wont have sufficient arsensal to sustain a longer war, Ukraine cant work in this context as Taiwan ahead of any invasion would be under a blockade.

The US has got use to destroying mud huts and bombing countries that cant strike back. We see how they react when they know the result will be overwhelming destruction even if they will win. Its the same over Taiwan. There will be no stomach for a long war like the Russia Ukraine conflict as China has the biggest advantage in this theatre.

There won't be any invasion of Taiwan but there will be an air, missile and naval conflict which the US and Taiwan will have weeks to prepare as US ISR and other nations like Japan and Taiwan start seeing huge movements of PLA forces. There won't be no sneak attack by the time China gives the order to launch missiles, Taiwan's forces will also be ready. Chinese fanboys have this perception that somehow Taiwan will be passive and vulnerable but that is not reality. Taiwan's navy will be at sea by the time China decides to attack and that is not counting the 2-3 US CVNs and their battle group that will be near Taiwan.

If China starts with blockade that is an act of war and Taiwan will respond by sinking those ships. Can Taiwan sustain such a conflict for long period of time of course not, but they don't have to. In that short period of time Taiwan can severely damage PLA's fighting capability making very costly for CCP. PLA will have no air superiority over Taiwan and PLAN ships will be easy targets for Taiwan's land base antiship missiles which will have the high-ground advantaged giving the radars a greater range than they would have if deployed at sea-level.

China's military is as corrupt as Russia and it also suffers like the Russians of people being in high ranking positions not by merit but from who they know. China has not been in any war since they fought Vietnam and their military doesn't have a combined arms capability/Joint-Command style of fighting making them very vulnerable.

 

[lightning f57]

There won't be any invasion of Taiwan but there will be an air, missile and naval conflict which the US and Taiwan will have weeks to prepare as US ISR and other nations like Japan and Taiwan start seeing huge movements of PLA forces. There won't be no sneak attack by the time China gives the order to launch missiles, Taiwan's forces will also be ready. Chinese fanboys have this perception that somehow Taiwan will be passive and vulnerable but that is not reality. Taiwan's navy will be at sea by the time China decides to attack and that is not counting the 2-3 US CVNs and their battle group that will be near Taiwan.

If China starts with blockade that is an act of war and Taiwan will respond by sinking those ships. Can Taiwan sustain such a conflict for long period of time of course not, but they don't have to. In that short period of time Taiwan can severely damage PLA's fighting capability making very costly for CCP. PLA will have no air superiority over Taiwan and PLAN ships will be easy targets for Taiwan's land base antiship missiles which will have the high-ground advantaged giving the radars a greater range than they would have if deployed at sea-level.

China's military is as corrupt as Russia and it also suffers like the Russians of people being in high ranking positions not by merit but from who they know. China has not been in any war since they fought Vietnam and their military doesn't have a combined arms capability/Joint-Command style of fighting making them very vulnerable.

Wars never work out the way one thinks.

If I am China, I would fire my long range missiles and take out all of Taiwan's military bases, radar stations, ports and naval bases. China has sufficient strategic depth and large bases to sustain a response from Taiwan. No matter what some hot headed american politician or general will say they will not engage China in a direct battle unless China hits US assets first so those battle groups wont be getting involved directly. China also has large surface fleet which will be employed for sustaining a blockade, its their neighbourhood they have the home advantage.

The US can not save Taiwan if China did decide to go all in. Taiwan has 4 destroyers, 22 Frigates, some corvettes, a few submarines. China has 58 destroyers, 54 frigates, 75 corvettes, 20+ submarines, their aircraft inventory 1000+ vs Taiwans 400ish fighters and every year China becomes stronger, it will be a one sided result. US, Japea, S.Korea can not replicate what Nato is doing with Ukraine getting any large assets into Taiwan by sea will be very risky and I highly doubt they will run a blockade.

 

[Nilgiri]

I don't think I have ever talked about reforger here, I did talk about red flag or Talisman Sabre in the old forum, so I think you were talking to someone else.

The thing about reforger and NATO in general is that this is how we learn to fight together, it's really pointless if you are having a big blob of troop but come under 10 different jurisdictions, then you don't have a single command-able troop, instead you have 10 separate unit each operate on their own, and that you can easily divide them and defeat them in detail.

The thing about a potential US and China war is, it's never going to be just USA against China, nobody will fight in a war unless you know you have absolute advantage unless you are forced to (like you are being attacked) which mean there are virtually no reason for US to start any war alone if they cannot get their allies onboard, and if they can, then China will not be just facing the might of the US. But a combine might of a group of country headed by the US. And that's how we get you. Because we can distribute direct and indirect capability to countries that may not even be directly involved in that war. But for our opponent they would need to put their effort in overdrive in order to fight us.

For China. The strength of their military is not going to be judged by the face value alone, which make these type of articles pointless to begin with.

yeah it was likely another mil veteran then in another forum perhaps I'm remembering.

In real life, I had long chat one time with a brig gen who was major back then and was part of reforger a few times. He was really guy who got me much more interested in logistical comprehensive planning...both military but also any domain in general...and how to visualize these things to requirements wise and sensoring wise for the data....then the analysis and how to then delegate, observe and so on.

Reforger had a substantial OPFOR element which made it unique to say operation brasstacks india did in 1980s Its been years since i did deep dive on YT to look for more stuff, I found this interesting one to add to my archive:

especially from about 8 minute mark onwards:

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Whereas PLA (be it GF, AF or N) do large drills from time to time, but they dont even do brasstacks scale stuff to test+refine mobilisation AFAIK....forget about dedicated intense OPFOR element like reforgers.....with the extra long logistics tested as well.

I for one hope the current combined exercises done by quad (while a good start for familiarisation + coordination etc) evolve to something closer to reforger to some degree in years to come...as far can be done without having NATO style integration anyway (this anyway exists to large degree between US/Can and Japan+Korea)

 

[Nuffle]

Not only that US bases in Korea, Japan, and Guam are vulnerable to attack as they were bunched in a small number of bases and all of them had no hardened shelter a big vulnerability. While Chinese squadrons are spread over a large number of bases and most of them are hardened

Disabling an air base even without reinforced defenses is an extremely difficult task that requires continuous attacks, even if the attack is with ballistic missiles.

 

[Nuffle]

I for one hope the current combined exercises done by quad (while a good start for familiarisation + coordination etc) evolve to something closer to reforger to some degree in years to come...as far can be done without having NATO style integration anyway (this anyway exists to large degree between US/Can and Japan+Korea)

China does not need to carry out major exercises to test its real combat and mobilization capabilities. Just do small joint exercises and then establish all the parameters and assignments of that small exercise for even greater strength.

 

[Hendarto]

Disabling an air base even without reinforced defenses is an extremely difficult task that requires continuous attacks, even if the attack is with ballistic missiles.

Why do you say so because China can attack using DF 17 with no countermeasure as of now

 

[Nilgiri]

China does not need to carry out major exercises to test its real combat and mobilization capabilities. Just do small joint exercises and then establish all the parameters and assignments of that small exercise for even greater strength.

If you say so.

I prefer not to do bicep curls as proof I can squat and deadlift though.

 

[Shanlung]

Who are these military experts? Do they know these airbases that China will use in Taiwan conflict, which is about 6-9, are all within range of Taiwan missiles?
View attachment 43305
View attachment 43306

Chinese military is just like the Russian military before it invaded Ukraine... They both look good in parades, weapons expos and staged combat exercises for cameras and look how it turned out for Russia. Everyone including me thought Russia would run over Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine Taiwan has teeth and can strike back hard and chairman-Xi knows it.


If Ukraine had half of what Taiwan has in military Russia would have unlikely invaded.

CHINA GOT LOTS LOTS OF FIREDRAGONS THAT EASILY COVER ALL OF TAIWAN AND MORE

AND BELOW AS WELL

 

[j_hungary]

yeah it was likely another mil veteran then in another forum perhaps I'm remembering.

In real life, I had long chat one time with a brig gen who was major back then and was part of reforger a few times. He was really guy who got me much more interested in logistical comprehensive planning...both military but also any domain in general...and how to visualize these things to requirements wise and sensoring wise for the data....then the analysis and how to then delegate, observe and so on.

Reforger had a substantial OPFOR element which made it unique to say operation brasstacks india did in 1980s Its been years since i did deep dive on YT to look for more stuff, I found this interesting one to add to my archive:

especially from about 8 minute mark onwards:

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Whereas PLA (be it GF, AF or N) do large drills from time to time, but they dont even do brasstacks scale stuff to test+refine mobilisation AFAIK....forget about dedicated intense OPFOR element like reforgers.....with the extra long logistics tested as well.

I for one hope the current combined exercises done by quad (while a good start for familiarisation + coordination etc) evolve to something closer to reforger to some degree in years to come...as far can be done without having NATO style integration anyway (this anyway exists to large degree between US/Can and Japan+Korea)

Reforger is basically simulate how Russia goes over the Berlin Wall and attack west Germany, we all thought that was a possibility until it wasn't, now the line is Ukraine.

The reason why Reforger is important is because we need to be able to concentrate the body of troop intact, by that we mean a clean estimation between how long until the main body of force to arrive from the US and how long the frontline troop is going to fight, which mean a rear guard action and a strategic deployment of troop, so that we know how many troop we need to station in Germany in order for them to fight a delay battle until the main body of troop arrive. Kind of like how the 24th infantry division fought a rear guard action until UN force built up in Busan.

Which mean the OPFOR component is important because you can't estimate how long your own troop fight until you come in contact with your enemy. OPFOR concept is developed so it goes like your enemy, think like your enemy and deploy like your enemy, in particular, most NATO OPFOR operation are led by former Russia/Soviet commander that had defected to the West so to give the best representation as possible.

Eastern doctrine however, depends on a set of playbook that nobody can change, a top-down command structure (Which is the reason why Eastern Doctrine country like Russia or Ukraine don't have a functioning NCO corps) that result in nominal battle planning on lower level, which mean the concept of OPFOR is not used, because you don't really need to factor in the change of tactics, or strategy unless you are in a corps or armies level.

Which is why Eastern armies exercise don't rely on the dynamical frontline environment, since you can't interact with lower level command structure if they have no input at all. Which also mean most Eastern Doctrine would depends on their enemy to fight the way they wanted. While we in the west would have interaction even at squad level, that's why OPFOR for us is more important because we need to see and react after contact.

 

[DF-41]

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⚔ If the United States intervenes in the conflict with China over Taiwan, Beijing is capable of striking 330 American military bases within the first island chain within the first 10 hours. The number of American casualties will reach from 100,000 to 200,000, and hundreds of thousands of Japanese military personnel will also die - Chinese professor Li Yi

China3army Australian Ambassador to the USA Kevin Rudd about the conflict over Taiwan

▪ It is foolish to ignore the growing clarity of China's military signals , including its latest military exercises.

▪China's actions will depend on its perception of US deterrent power .

▪ The US acknowledged that “if China succeeds in annexing Taiwan, it will impact US credibility and have a lasting impact on the perceived strength of US alliances around the world.”

▪ The US, China and Taiwan have a common interest in avoiding open military confrontation over the future of Taiwan.

▪ The economic costs, domestic political and geostrategic consequences that such a war would entail would be as great as the consequences of World War II.

▪ Whatever the outcome (US or Chinese victory or bloody stalemate), "the world after such a war is likely to be a radically different place than it was before."