China preparing for 'protracted' war, says think tank

[Hendarto]

Well I don't have a clue what are you trying to say . The proof is in the pudding The collective West sent everything they got including a kitchen sink to Ukraine to stave off the defeat emptying even their stockpile. Hyping themselves saying Russian weapons are junk etc

Yet The Russians advance and they can hit Ukraine towns, troop concentrations, weapon depots etc with impunity while shielding themselves with IAd and electronic warfare

 

[gambit]

Well I don't have a clue what are you trying to say .

Your loss. And that loss is a statistical deterrence to knowledge.

 

[War Lord]

That is a complete lie Russian casualties are way lower than that Most of the casualties are due to artillery fire and Russia has overwhelming superiority when it comes to artillery fire. Russia artillery Fire is almost 5 to 1 ratio compared to Ukraine. We know Ukraine's casualties are around 500,000 dead or injured her interior minister said that So Russian casualties are around 150000.

What? 2 to 10 returns that are BS for every dollar you sent to Ukraine mean there are fewer dollars for domestic programs like health care and welfare. Witness the rising homelessness and bankruptcy in the collective West. So the idea of cost-free provocation to weaken Russia backfired badly. The Russian economy is getting stronger while the EU and especially Germany witnessing the hollowing of industry, rising unemployment and rising inflation Good luck with that

Lmao go read the news before coming and replying to me.

 

[War Lord]

The same applies to Taiwan missiles they will be intercepted and fooled by electronic warfare. Witness the experience of the Russo-Ukraine war Russian IAD works perfectly there are leaks here and there but mostly they work. But Russia has almost limitless missiles, drones, and rockets that overwhelm Ukraine's IAD. Hitting Ukraine's weapon depot, airfields, cities etc. No China doesn't attack Taiwan not out of weakness but To declare war and sending someone's son, father, and husband to death is not something you do on a whim you need casus belli for that Sofar Taiwan does not declare independence everything is good.

Russia has lost 12 fighters in 12 days. Again go read the news and educate yourself.

 

[War Lord]

Well I don't have a clue what are you trying to say . The proof is in the pudding The collective West sent everything they got including a kitchen sink to Ukraine to stave off the defeat emptying even their stockpile. Hyping themselves saying Russian weapons are junk etc

Yet The Russians advance and they can hit Ukraine towns, troop concentrations, weapon depots etc with impunity while shielding themselves with IAd and electronic warfare

Not everything and not the first time Russians have been "advancing". Advances can be checkmated and reversed.

 

[Hendarto]

Lmao go read the news before coming and replying to me.

You are reading Western press based on Ukrainian military statements It is just like an echo chamber. Now Elensky said Ukrainian casualties throughout the war are only 31000 Now do you believe that when Russia has been hurling artillery 30000 shells per day? Yeah read the propaganda Ukraine is winning the war but the reality is something else! go on keep dreaming

 

[Hendarto]

Russia has lost 12 fighters in 12 days. Again go read the news and educate yourself.

At this rate Ukraine will win the war right Is it true?
You just believe everything that the Western press lies to the public yup hook, line and sinker you eat them up

 

[War Lord]

At this rate Ukraine will win the war right Is it true?
You just believe everything that the Western press lies to the public yup hook, line and sinker you eat them up

You should go read some books on war before coming to PDF and engaging me.

Different sides have different interests involved. US wants to bog down Russia in Ukraine, a repeat of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Don't worry, give it a few more years and you'll see what I'm talking about.

 

[War Lord]

You are reading Western press based on Ukrainian military statements It is just like an echo chamber. Now Elensky said Ukrainian casualties throughout the war are only 31000 Now do you believe that when Russia has been hurling artillery 30000 shells per day? Yeah read the propaganda Ukraine is winning the war but the reality is something else! go on keep dreaming

I have read statements from both sides.

Russians have themselves admitted to losing 100k+ soldiers so far with twice the amount of casualties. If you really knew anything about warfare or this war in particular you would know.

 

[Hendarto]

You should go read some books on war before coming to PDF and engaging me.

Different sides have different interests involved. US wants to bog down Russia in Ukraine, a repeat of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Don't worry, give it a few more years and you'll see what I'm talking about.

It is really funny that you mention Afghanistan Now who is running away from Afghanistan after 20 years and trillions of dollars? It is not the Russian? Remember this photo ?
Russia is not bogged down in fact Russia is thriving with full employment and Russian ruble appreciation There is no shortage of goods in Russian stores. Russia's GDP growth is 3% better than EU countries

https://www.npr.org/2023/12/17/1219882734/russias-economy-is-going-strong-despite-sanctions-from-the-u-s-and-its-allies#:~:text=Weekend%20Edition%20Sunday-,Russia's%20economy%20is%20going%20strong%20despite%20sanctions%20from%20the%20U.S.,with%20the%20Carnegie%20Eurasia%20Center.

PROKOPENKO: That's the one part of the narrative - the Russian economy will collapse immediately. I mean, what do we see now? Economic growth in Russia in 2023 is likely to exceed 3%. It is - in terms of figures, I mean, it's great. It's more than economy of the United Kingdom or of Germans' economy. So what's behind these figures is that over a third of this growth is attributed to the war economy, where defense-related industries are flourishing at double-digit rates. This growth is not what we called, you know, improving people's well-being. It's more about the state spending on war.

 

[gambit]

It is really funny that you mention Afghanistan Now who is running away from Afghanistan after 20 years and trillions of dollars? It is not the Russian? Remember this photo ?View attachment 23659

Yes, we 'fled' Afghanistan from 'fear' of the Taliban. Anything to make you happy.

 

[Raiden]

Russian losses, of every kind, in Ukraine are being watch closely -- understatement of the year -- by China. In war, environment dictates both defense and offense. The problem for China here is the environment -- water. On land, you have more flexibility, speed, and rate of change for mobility. Not the same on water. These guys talk as if it is easy to cross that 100 miles of water. If such crossing is as easy as their ignorance spewed, Taiwan should have fallen before they became the democratic country they are today. It is funny that the guy who said he design SHIPS, not boats, can make that claim with a (virtual) straight face.

Assault Amphibious Vehicle - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Max speed is 20 mph or 30 kmh. Troop capacity 12 with full gear.

Amphibious Assault Ships

The largest of all amphibious warfare ships, the LHD is a multi-purpose amphibious assault ship that resembles a small aircraft carrier. Each can carry 1,870 troops as well as a variety of air and landing craft.​

​

Which will be able to make that 100 miles crossing in sea states that could break human spines? Here is the Douglas Sea Scale for example.

Douglas sea scale - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Most of the yr, the Taiwan Strait states are 5-7 with two 2-3 weeks window of state 4. The PLAN will need to transport 1 million troops over rough sea at speed maybe 12 mph.

Optimizing ship speed depending on cargo and wind-sea conditions for sustainable blue growth and climate change mitigation - Journal of Marine Science and Technology

The impact of fuel consumption on merchant ships is categorized in both economic and environmental ways in terms of sustainable blue growth. Apart from the economic benefits of reducing fuel consumption, attention should be paid to related environmental concerns with ship fuels. As a result of...

link.springer.com

Look at section 3.1 : Factors affecting ship fuel consumption and ship speed
All ships must arrive at Taiwan at the same time. I do not mean at exactly the same time but within a narrow window to disembark troops. That mean all ships must be in specific array during transit and landing. The entire time, unlike land warfare where troops can quickly disperse and regroup, change direction and return, these ships must stay in formation and because the environment is water, changes in directions are predictable by observers.

Navigating the Black Ditch: Risks in the Taiwan Strait | Center for International Maritime Security

Navigating the Black Ditch: Risks in the Taiwan Strait

cimsec.org

Seasonal environmental variation has a large impact on the navigability of the strait. The China Coastal Current flows southward in the western part of the strait from a maximum strength in winter months, backed by the northeast monsoon, to its weakest point in the summer. On the eastern side of the strait the northward flowing Kuroshio Branch Current is turned back by the north-east monsoon in the winter after exiting the Penghu Channel, but continues the rest of the year, while reaching its maximum strength in the summer. Each year from July to September, an average of six larger (and, thus, named) tropical storms and typhoons impact the strait. Year-round, the strait is known for strong winds, wave swells, and fog (156.3 days a year of level 6 or higher on the Beaufort Scale), but these effects are amplified during the winter months. Fang Xu and Pingping Chen, writing in Securing the Safety of Navigation in East Asia by Keyuan Zhou and Shicun Wu, note that these conditions impact “not only challenges to safety at sea but also obstacles for efficient search and rescue.”​

​

The Beaufort Scale is for wind. Here is wind state 6:

Beaufort Wind Scale

Large waves begin to form; the white foam crests are more extensive everywhere.​

Large branches in motion; whistling heard in telegraph wires; umbrellas used with difficulty.​

So for at least 1/2 of the yr, wind is strong enough to knock humans over, and if we reference the highlighted, the invasion windows are April-May or Oct-Nov with 2-3 weeks each. And even then, the transit will be in rough not calm sea. Now, try to imagine the transit while under bombardment. This is not twice but thrice the difficulty of D-Day when you factor in that there is no element of surprise, unlike D-Day when the Allies had the element of surprise from deceiving the Germans months before. For D-Day, it took 6 hrs to fully disembark all troops. How long will the PLAN need?

The guy claimed to design SHIPS in post 230 but is clueless on these facts. Am Air Force and I found these facts.

I am aware of this, yes, weather and geography dictate how China should fight this war. Certainly, a landing in Taiwan is not as easy a task as how PDF Chinese expert talks proposed. In fact I'm aware of this post somewhere you write in the old PDF.

But has it ever tickled your mind, that somewhere there, the Chinese (the PLA war planners of course, not PDF China experts) are actively trying to overwhelm the force and constraint of nature by sheer engineering?

What if the Chinese come up with a 21st-century equivalent of Mehmet ordering ships to be dragged on land? and lay 1000 years of brilliant natural and man-made defense obsolete?

The Chinese war planners have 70+ years to plan for this, and they're not any less aware than you are.

What if instead of short sharp wars, a la Desert Storm, the Chinese opted for a long military campaign that worked to China's advantage? I read a lot of op-eds and news from Western think tanks that China would surrender quickly after the West destroyed the PLAN, the cream of PLA's military modernization (emulating the Germans in WW1). But after seeing that Putin was not overthrown after the large-scale defeat 6 months early into the war, there needs to be questions floated about how realistic such hope is.


Also, you're talking about the technical aspects only, war is complex and it goes down to non-technical issues as well. A long military campaign, enduring years for example, could thin out, not only Taiwan's military infrastructure but also its willingness to fight. I saw a lot of enthusiasm of Ukrainians entering the local territorial defense force early in the war, 2 years later they had to be kidnapped in broad daylight by recruitment officers. The Taiwanese aren't any less human than those Ukrainians.

 

[Raiden]

Russia has lost over 300-400k men. It'll continue to lose more as the year, or the years, progress. It'll be hard to replace them. Just like it won't be easy to replace all the material and financial loss.

War is indeed costly for Russia, and I can't emphasize just how damaging it is not only for the Russian armed force that Putin spent a fortune trying to build in the last 2 decades but also for their reputation and (perceived) might.

But even if it's true that Russia lost 300-400K, you guys do realize that Russia gained 5-7 million men and women from the conquered territories right? That's a potential base for military recruitment. Not only that, the riches of Ukrainian lands and natural resources will justify such losses, in the long term.

300-400K is small for a population of 142 Million (149 if including citizens of newly occupied Ukraine)

 

[gambit]

I am aware of this, yes, weather and geography dictate how China should fight this war. Certainly, a landing in Taiwan is not as easy a task as how PDF Chinese expert talks proposed. In fact I'm aware of this post somewhere you write in the old PDF.

But has it ever tickled your mind, that somewhere there, the Chinese (the PLA war planners of course, not PDF China experts) are actively trying to overwhelm the force and constraint of nature by sheer engineering?

What if the Chinese come up with a 21st-century equivalent of Mehmet ordering ships to be dragged on land? and lay 1000 years of brilliant natural and man-made defense obsolete?

The Chinese war planners have 70+ years to plan for this, and they're not any less aware than you are.

What if instead of short sharp wars, a la Desert Storm, the Chinese opted for a long military campaign that worked to China's advantage? I read a lot of op-eds and news from Western think tanks that China would surrender quickly after the West destroyed the PLAN, the cream of PLA's military modernization (emulating the Germans in WW1). But after seeing that Putin was not overthrown after the large-scale defeat 6 months early into the war, there needs to be questions floated about how realistic such hope is.


Also, you're talking about the technical aspects only, war is complex and it goes down to non-technical issues as well. A long military campaign, enduring years for example, could thin out, not only Taiwan's military infrastructure but also its willingness to fight. I saw a lot of enthusiasm of Ukrainians entering the local territorial defense force early in the war, 2 years later they had to be kidnapped in broad daylight by recruitment officers. The Taiwanese aren't any less human than those Ukrainians.

Sure, it is possible that China can make the Taiwan War a yrs long affair. So what will the Chinese economy look like? What will global economy look like since no one will be sailing thru the South China Sea, and certainly not thru the Taiwan Strait?

 

[Han Patriot]

You should look at that tanker in the Red Sea that recently sunk. The ship did not have that much damage, yet it sunk. All it take to take out an amphibious troop carrier is ONE artillery round. And the strait transit will take at least eight hours.

Which is exactly my point, logistics is near impossible to supply Taiwan, and I want to reiterate my point, th3 distance is good for artillery missiles and air force, no Chinese is gonna land without tenderising Taiwan. Taiwan's geography is both a blessing and a curse. If Taiwan is as large as Ukraine, it will be a blessing but Taiwan is a puny island.