China preparing for 'protracted' war, says think tank

They say China is weak in the ASW So the west can strangle Chinese SLOC at will. I am not sure if that is true. China has built 6 TAGOS ships, She has one of the largest conventional submarines in Asia. Notice the sea surrounding China is shallow good for diesel sub. SOSSUS is now in place. China has a large fleet of Maritime patrol planes and ASW KQ200. Here is a long and scholastic work about Chinese TAGOS

China Maritime Report #36: “China’s T-AGOS: The Dongjian Class Ocean Surveillance Ship”


About the Author

Mr. Devin Thorne is a Principal Threat Intelligence Analyst with Recorded Future. He specializes in the use of publicly available Chinese-language sources to explain China’s security strategies and their implementation, with a focus on maritime security, national defense mobilization, military-civil fusion, and propaganda. He was previously a Senior Analyst with the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS) and has also conducted research on behalf of the Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy, Hudson Institute, and U.S. Department of State. Devin holds a B.A. from the University of Alabama at Birmingham and an M.A. from the Johns Hopkins University–Nanjing University Center for Chinese and American Studies. He lived, studied, and worked in China for multiple years. He speaks Mandarin.

Summary

Since 2017, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has commissioned a new class of ocean surveillance vessel into its order of battle: the Type 927. Similar in design and function to the U.S. Navy’s Victorious and Impeccable class T-AGOS ships, the Type 927 was introduced to help remedy the PLAN’s longstanding weakness in anti-submarine warfare.

The PLAN has likely built six Type 927 ships to date, most based for easy access to the South China Sea. In peacetime, these ships use their towed array sonar to collect acoustic data on foreign submarines and track their movements within and beyond the first island chain. In wartime, Type 927 vessels could contribute to PLAN anti-submarine warfare operations in support of a range of different maritime campaigns. However, their lack of self-defense capabilities would make them extremely vulnerable to attack.

Introduction

Since 2017, Chinese shipyards have launched, and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has likely commissioned, six new ocean surveillance ships. These ships—designated the Type 927 or Type 8161 by the PLAN and the Dongjian class by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)2—provide the PLAN an improved capability for acoustic detection of undersea threats. In peacetime, they will collect acoustic signatures and monitor the activities of foreign submarines operating in China’s claimed maritime spaces, strengthening the PLAN’s ability to seize the initiative if war erupts.3 In wartime scenarios,

Type 927 ships will very likely support a range of offensive and defensive campaigns with an anti-submarine warfare (ASW) component, in coordination with other surface, air, undersea, and shore-based systems, sensors, and platforms. The Type 927’s helipad likely enables it to work directly with an ASW helicopter to precisely detect, localize, identify, and attack enemy submarines.4

Like the ocean surveillance ships of other modern navies, Type 927 ships almost certainly have both a passive and low-frequency active (LFA) sonar capability. The PLAN’s new ocean surveillance fleet will likely create challenges for the undersea operations of the United States (U.S.), Japan, and others in the Asia-Pacific region, imposing new obstacles to their stealthy navigation and security. The challenges will likely be greatest within, and along the periphery of, the first island chain, where the activities of Type 927 ships will likely concentrate.5

This report is divided into three sections. Section one discusses the strategic and operational environment informing China’s investment in ocean surveillance ships and how they will likely be used.

Section two examines what is known (and unknown) about the Type 927 class, including vessel identifiers, basing, layout, and sonar capabilities, as well as the PLAN’s previous generation of ocean surveillance ships. Section three analyzes the likely peacetime and wartime roles of Type 927 ships as well as the likely geographic focus of their operations. … … …

Conclusion

China’s new-generation of ocean surveillance ships is almost certainly designed to help (in coordination with other sensors and platforms) alleviate longstanding weaknesses in the PLAN’s ASW capability and in China’s undersea security more broadly.

That so many Type 927 ships have been built so fast—six were likely delivered between 2017 and 2022—underscores the importance that Chinese military leaders place on the undersea domain and on addressing shortcomings in long-range undersea detection and target identification. The pace of construction also suggests

China has successfully developed adequate long-range passive and (almost certainly) LFA sonar technologies, as well as acoustic data processing techniques. However, the PLAN’s sonar systems likely remain behind those of the U.S. and others in performance and(not sure if this is true) reliability.

While strengthening China’s national defense posture is the primary motivation for building the Type 927 fleet, these ships further the PLAN’s offensive ambitions as well. SMS 2020, for example, calls for developing the ability to establish “comprehensive sea area control” on the basis of “all-weather, omni-directional, multi-dimensional, multi-band battlefield perception, target recognition, tracking, and positioning capabilities.” 115 Type 927 ships will very likely, in certain scenarios, contribute to this and related goals, such as exercising command of the sea during a conflict.

Thus, in peacetime and wartime, the operations of Type 927 ships will likely create new challenges for American, Japanese, and other submarines operating regionally. Some Chinese sources express that American ocean surveillance ships have an “interfering” effect on China’s submarine operations and other undersea military activities.116 Along similar lines, other Chinese sources suggest that Type 927 ships can help China interfere in, and thwart, the “harassing” activities of U.S. submarines operating in the South China Sea.117 Should China deploy these ships to surveil waters near foreign naval bases, for instance, they will likely become obstacles to free, stealthy movement into and out of those ports.

The Type 927 may also make stealthy navigation of China’s maritime periphery more difficult in general as part of the PLAN’s likely desire to impose a buffer zone between foreign submarines and China’s strategic naval ports. As China’s undersea detection capabilities continue to improve and these ships are further integrated into maturing PLA C4ISR networks, Type 927 ships will likely increase the threats to foreign submarines.











 
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Here is the text description of the above image
A state-funded 2019 study by researchers affiliated with the China Ship Development and Design Center (中国舰船研究设计中心) that describes a model of underwater combat operations (see Figure 3 below) envisions the following scenario. 103 Reconnaissance satellites are used to analyze and predict enemy submarine disposition (部署)104 at the strategic level. Underwater surveillance systems and ocean surveillance ships implement “campaign reconnaissance”105 to ascertain the rough area and bearing (方位) of enemy underwater platforms over a wide area. ASW aircraft then carry out targeted searches using sonobuoys and other methods to identify and position the enemy. Finally, ASW aircraft and other platforms track or attack the enemy as required by mission parameters.


With this range and 6 ships, China can cover the South China Sea where the US sub most likely lurks. Here is the detection range of type 927
According to Shipborne Weapons, the Type 927’s equipment has a detection range of hundreds of nautical miles and a detection depth of up to 450 meters. Ordnance Industry Science Technology asserts that when using “very low-frequency sonar”, the Type 927’s equipment can detect submarines at ranges greater than 300-700 kilometers (162-378 nautical miles) without relying on convergence zones.

As China’s undersea detection capabilities continue to improve and these ships are further integrated into maturing PLA C4ISR networks, Type 927 ships will likely increase the threats to foreign submarines.

With its new fleet of ocean surveillance ships, the PLAN has moved closer to its goal of being prepared to win a “high-end naval war” and improved its chances of detecting, tracking, and even attacking potential future adversaries in the undersea domain. 118
 
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Coupled with KQ 200 surveillance China covers the South China Sea area, a likely place for US submarine operations,




Author’s depiction on a satellite image from Google Maps

The identified area of interest is particularly significant when compared to topographical and bathymetric maps shown in Figure 4. The topographical and bathymetric conditions create two natural submarine interception points against U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) in the northern part of the South China Sea. The first opportunity is in the Bashi Channel and Luzon Strait, which have shallow waters and few natural hideouts.

The second interception opportunity in entering the Taiwan Strait is the upward slope of the South China Sea Slope, an important underwater topographic future connecting the South China Sea and mainland China. Submarines are forced to ascend along the South China Sea Slope to the shallower waters of the South China Sea Shelf.



Source: Chenglin Gong (December 2014) and Gang Wang (April 2015)

In an earlier work, Lu Li-Shih wrote that this “underwater geography, with a complicated mix of seabed sediments along with its hydrological environment and geographical location, makes the area greatly suitable for ‘submarine area hunting’ for Taiwanese forces.” If the submarine geography can indeed be considered as a good “submarine hunting ground” for the Taiwanese navy,

it must also be of great interest to the PLAN as well. This could well go a long way in explaining the frequent PLAN KQ-200 sorties over this particular geographic and submarine topographic area.
Moreover, the USN dispatches its own anti-submarine and maritime patrol aircraft, P-8A Poseidon, sorties frequently to the very same geographic area (see, for example, here, here and here).

The fact that the U.S. P-8s – as well as other capabilities often supporting these missions, like KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft, RC-135 and EP-3 signals-intelligence collection aircraft, or even Triton high-endurance and long-range unmanned systems – frequently orbit over either the strategic Bashi Channel (see here, here, and here) or the South China Sea Slope, further demonstrates the significance of this finding. Open-source intelligence sources have also shown the occasional simultaneous presence of both Chinese and U.S. ASW aircraft circling over the same area at the same time, suggesting a mutual interest in screening each other’s submarine movements.

In addition to another critical maritime chokepoint north of Taiwan, the Miyako Strait between the Japanese islands Miyako-shima and Okinawa, another critical chokepoint, the Bashi Channel, to the south, connect the western Pacific to the South China Sea. These geographical features also serve as conduits for any U.S. forces traveling from the continental United States, Hawaii, or bases along the Second Island Chain, such as Guam, to the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, the two straits are of great strategic importance to China, both in the PLA’s attempt to “break out” from the First Island Chain to the western Pacific and in denying the U.S. Navy access to the area in times of conflict.

Furthermore, the South China Sea Slope offers the PLA another viable interception point against U.S. SSNs entering the Taiwan Strait.
Another plausible explanation for the near daily intrusions of the KQ-200 in the area and, especially, flights across the Bashi Channel to the western Pacific, relate to the type’s function as the PLAN’s primary maritime patrol aircraft. The type is not just an anti-submarine warfare aircraft but also an effective maritime patrol aircraft.

Figure 5 illustrates the type’s occasional long-distance missions, taking the aircraft across the Bashi Channel and into the western Pacific. The data provided by Taiwan’s MND also show the aircraft’s typical flightpath turning northeast along the sea lanes of communication coming from Japan’s direction toward the South China Sea. Importantly, this is also the direction from which USN vessels based in Yokosuka, Japan, would arrive in the area. Additionally, the USN and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force often conduct joint exercises south of Okinawa, in the Philippine Sea. This is arguably all of great interest to the PLA in collecting intelligence information about USN movements.

 
Early? There's huge numbers of ghost buildings. What is your definition of late?
It looks bad on the media but only comprises a small percentage of total floor space built in China. The government will buy those buildings on the cheap and complete them for low-income rental Remember China's urbanization rate is only 65% because of the restrictive Hukou system. Which is being dismantled bit by bit. So there will always be a need for housing remember those ghost towns like Orsoa that were sensationalized by western media Now it is a booming and lively city

 
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what a joke.. world's second most powerfull army took 8 -9 months to take control of Bakhmut, defended by 15k Ukranian soldiers and the CCP minions are expected to swifty take control of an aread 3 x of Ukrain habitated by 800 million hostile people ?
Ukraine has lost the war.

Russia has occupied its claimed areas in Eastern Ukraine, with no intention of a total conquest of Ukraine.

Ukraine, as a "blue eyed blonde haired" country, has the logistical backing of the entire western world. India does not have such a luxury.

India's inferior economy and military will lose a long war against China.
 
LOL! Apparently this conveniently slips your mind when it involves Chinese commenting on 9/11. Your self-righteous preaching seems to be heavily one-sided. For instance to put it in perspective maybe things that happened in China back then was a Chinese government false flag...
Still doesn't make glorifying child massacre and rapists ok. Unless of course you are such a person.
 
Early? There's huge numbers of ghost buildings. What is your definition of late?
I suggest you visit these 'ghost cities' and see for yourself. One American did just that and came back surprised. Lololol
 
LOL! Well here's a surprise for you...
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Have you ever checked the source of your so called news? Next time quote epoch times.

Chinese urban housing is inadequate, the problem is not oversupply, the problem is pricing. Previously, the government do not mind the property price rising to stimulate the economy, now the government wants the property price to stablise so people can afford to buy it. Remember China even has a cap on the number of houses one can buy in tier 1 cities.

Alot of old housing in the countryside built in the 80s and 90s will. Be demolished because of migration to cities, and rural farm land will be consolidated.
 
Judging by the recent string of US space failures. It is not wine. Older doesn't mean better. The US lost its leadership in space due to start and stop policy due to budget constraints They disbanded NASA and replaced it with a private contractor.
Civilian engagement in space is inevitable. You can list all the mistakes and errors the US made to make you feel better, but that will not hide the fact that your China is STILL a follower, not a leader, in space ventures. We done the hard work, now you are reaping the benefits.

Does China have a 'civil aviation' sector? No, you do not. Chinese internal airspace is still under military control. The US have literally tens of thousands of non-government pilots. I myself learned how to fly BEFORE entering the USAF. How many civilian pilots does China have? What does it take to earn a pilot license in China? From our aviation experience, you can criticize US as having a disastrous civil aviation sector because we have so many accidents, and since China have virtually zero civil aviation sector, Chinese aviation is the more 'successful', eh?

Your argument is a joke.

 
rather India has to be treated as equal to come to a mutual solution on the boarder.
And you people's idea of being treated as equal is for China to give up its rightful land claims in favor of your country ? Lol.
 
, china is on course to become another Japan, the only question will be on the speed and scale.
I think you people being delusional about China whether wishfully is for good reason.
 
India may lose a long protratced war with China without external support, but will go down with a Chinese arm and leg with it..

Given that China is the most prominent enemy of the US, I dont see a single reason why US and west will not support India with mean and technology.. our industry base and economy are multiple times bigger tha Ukarine and can sustain a war far longer than what we have seen for Ukraine
No doubt America will attempt to harm China

But the Chinese are aware of this. They will probably do a 1962 type deal, where they capture Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, then unilaterally declare peace.
 

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