China’s naval supremacy: A new reality for the U.S.

[Beijingwalker]

China’s naval supremacy: A new reality for the U.S.​

15 Sep 2024 11:25

In a recent video, journalist Kerim Sultanov discusses China's impressive rise in military power, particularly its naval strength, which surpassed the U.S. Navy in 2023 .

He highlights China's ambitious shipbuilding efforts, including advanced nuclear submarines and destroyers, while the U.S. faces setbacks due to supply chain issues and decommissioning older ships.

Sultanov also touches on China's growing global influence through joint military exercises and strategic outposts, and the increasing naval parity between the U.S. and China, which is reshaping the global balance of power.

 

[Alter_Ego]

I think China is just gettin started.
The next two decades will witness massive PLAN advantages..

 

[Beijingwalker]

China’s Naval Expansion Threatens U.S. Dominance at Sea​

Story by Kathrine Frich
September 15 2024

China's shipbuilding capacity has far outpaced that of the United States, reaching a staggering 232 times greater, raising concerns about U.S. naval dominance.

Could Challenge American Vessels​

While the U.S. Navy is still recognized for its technological superiority, China's rapid advancements in warship design and production are shifting the balance of power at sea, according to Ziare.

According to a report by the Alliance for American Manufacturing, China’s shipbuilding capability dwarfs that of the U.S., and its modernization efforts are turning its warships into increasingly advanced platforms that could challenge American vessels in combat.

China's military expansion comes amid a growing strategic partnership with Russia, which has pledged to share advanced submarine propulsion technology with Beijing, a move previously avoided.

Outnumbering U.S. Navy​

The rise of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) isn’t just about numbers but also sophistication. Projections suggest that PLAN could grow to 435 ships by 2030, significantly outnumbering the U.S. Navy's current fleet of around 300 vessels.

This numerical and technological gap could limit America's ability to project naval power near Chinese waters, weakening the deterrence effect that U.S. ships currently hold.

Although U.S. warships maintain a technical edge in radar, missile defense, and electronic warfare, these advantages are becoming less significant as China develops new technologies.

Notably, China's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems, designed to target U.S. aircraft carriers, raise questions about the future of American carrier production, as these vessels may become increasingly vulnerable.

MSN

 

[Beijingwalker]

I think China is just gettin started.
The next two decades will witness massive PLAN advantages..

 

[FuturePAF]

I think China is just gettin started.
The next two decades will witness massive PLAN advantages..

China has caught up to a certain level of tech it there are still a ways to go, especially against threats like the Brahmos and hypersonic threats.

Waiting to see when China reveals its “555 missile”; a quad packed missile like the ESSM, Mach 5 with a 50 km range. Enough firepower that even dedicating 32 cells (out of 64-112) on a PLAN destroyer with these missile would mean considerable defense (128 missiles in the 50 km range) just for knocking out waves of enemy anti ship missiles with confidence of get each one.

Then China will also need a next generation missile like MBDA’s four stage Aquila missile that can better intercept very manuverable hypersonic missile.

Finally, waiting to see destroyer based title rotor UAVs with AWACS capabilities to protect surface task forces.

I don’t think it will take 2 decades but it’s possible it could be the mid 2030s before we see enough cutting edge tech as well as numbers till the PLAN, can really challenge the US, let alone the collective US led alliance.

 

[Alter_Ego]

China has caught up to a certain level of tech it there are still a ways to go, especially against threats like the Brahmos and hypersonic threats.

Waiting to see when China reveals its “555 missile”; a quad packed missile like the ESSM, Mach 5 with a 50 km range. Enough firepower that even dedicating 32 cells on a PLAN destroyer with these missile would mean considerable defense (128 missiles in the 50 km range) just for knocking out waves of enemy anti ship missiles with confidence of get each one.

Then China will also need a next generation missile like MBDA’s two stage Aquila missile that can better intercept very manuverable hypersonic missile.

Finally, waiting to see destroyer based title rotor UAVs with AWACS capabilities to protect surface task forces.

I don’t think it will take 2 decades but it’s possible it could be the mid 2030s before we see enough cutting edge tech as well as numbers till the PLAN, can really challenge the US, let alone the collective US led alliance.

I believe Laser weapons also have a role to play in this regard. Especially the intercepting domain.

 

[FuturePAF]

I believe Laser weapons also have a role to play in this regard. Especially the intercepting domain.

Directed energy will have a role, but I suspect it will be more towards weaken a missile’s ability to maneuver, allowing regular kinetic interceptors to engage it.


It will also lead to offensive missiles being layered in heat resistant coatings or materials to make them more survivable.

 

[majesticpug]

I think China is just gettin started.
The next two decades will witness massive PLAN advantages..

The surface ship advantages are already obvious. What PLAN lacks is supplies and logistics typically provided by oversea bases. A 052D could basically sink multiple Arleigh Burke II/III before an AB could damage it because most Arleigh Burke are old and their radar and anti-ship missiles are craps. Remember -- the US has only fought terrorists in the last 20-30 years and their DDGs were mostly equipped with anti-air missiles. The Harpoons are subsonic shits that have ZERO CHANCE to get past 052D's CIWS. So the real naval batte advanage has to be evaluated where the battles take place. In East Asia in the First and Second Chains, advantages are PLAN as it could summon land-based missiles and supplies are readily available. Outside that, it's all American.

 

[Yommie]

The future of warships is small and fast. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated big ships are not survivable.

 

[j_hungary]

China has caught up to a certain level of tech it there are still a ways to go, especially against threats like the Brahmos and hypersonic threats.

Waiting to see when China reveals its “555 missile”; a quad packed missile like the ESSM, Mach 5 with a 50 km range. Enough firepower that even dedicating 32 cells (out of 64-112) on a PLAN destroyer with these missile would mean considerable defense (128 missiles in the 50 km range) just for knocking out waves of enemy anti ship missiles with confidence of get each one.

Then China will also need a next generation missile like MBDA’s four stage Aquila missile that can better intercept very manuverable hypersonic missile.

Finally, waiting to see destroyer based title rotor UAVs with AWACS capabilities to protect surface task forces.

I don’t think it will take 2 decades but it’s possible it could be the mid 2030s before we see enough cutting edge tech as well as numbers till the PLAN, can really challenge the US, let alone the collective US led alliance.

There are 2 inherit problem China face vis-a-vis US Navy. The first problem is US is a global faring force with 14 different forward deploy point (Bases in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Spain, Italy, Africa, Indian Ocean and Oceania) , while China have 0, US is ALWAYS going to be able to handle more ship than China, US is expecting to have 100 Arleigh Burke Class by 2030 when the first ship of the class retire and the DDG(X) Program started, China would not be able to have the same number since they will have to base them all within their coastline.

Second issue is the US Combine (Joint) Task Force concept, US Navy don't operate their fleet like a fleet, they operate as a Special Multi-Nation Task Force, 4th and 5the Fleet is not just with 4th and 5th Fleet, but they operate as CTF-150 that have element of Spanish, German French and British (or any number of NATO partner), which always give them numerical superiority. Take Asia for example. if there is ever a war between US and China, China would have to content the issue that US bases in Japan, South Korea, Philippine, Diego Garcia (UK), Singapore and Australia. Do China leave these base untouched? or do they attack them and drag perspective country into war? The CTF Concept in Asia evolve around all these nations. Because China wouldn't be facing 3rd and 7th Fleet alone, they are going to have to face the naval might of all those countries.

Technological wise, the gap for PLAN vis-a-vis US Navy is still quite big, things are catching up a bit and you can probably offset some gap with advance drone, but then PLAN is still about decade to 15 years behind the US.

 

[FuturePAF]

There are 2 inherit problem China face vis-a-vis US Navy. The first problem is US is a global faring force with 14 different forward deploy point (Bases in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Spain, Italy, Africa, Indian Ocean and Oceania) , while China have 0, US is ALWAYS going to be able to handle more ship than China, US is expecting to have 100 Arleigh Burke Class by 2030 when the first ship of the class retire and the DDG(X) Program started, China would not be able to have the same number since they will have to base them all within their coastline.

Second issue is the US Combine (Joint) Task Force concept, US Navy don't operate their fleet like a fleet, they operate as a Special Multi-Nation Task Force, 4th and 5the Fleet is not just with 4th and 5th Fleet, but they operate as CTF-150 that have element of Spanish, German French and British (or any number of NATO partner), which always give them numerical superiority. Take Asia for example. if there is ever a war between US and China, China would have to content the issue that US bases in Japan, South Korea, Philippine, Diego Garcia (UK), Singapore and Australia. Do China leave these base untouched? or do they attack them and drag perspective country into war? The CTF Concept in Asia evolve around all these nations. Because China wouldn't be facing 3rd and 7th Fleet alone, they are going to have to face the naval might of all those countries.

Technological wise, the gap for PLAN vis-a-vis US Navy is still quite big, things are catching up a bit and you can probably offset some gap with advance drone, but then PLAN is still about decade to 15 years behind the US.

In terms of tech, I think they can do it in 10 years. Churning out 3 SSNs and a SSBN a year, by the mid 2030s, the fleet will be considerable. It will need to be deployed strategically, but it will be above the force ratios the Soviet’s had deployed, in the 80s, in the Pacific and Indian oceans vis a vi the US.

The key will come down to basing. Cambodia and Djibouti are likely, Myanmar is hard (possibly on one of their islands) but possible with considerable Chinese “investment”, and beyond that it doesn’t look likely.

By providing a base, just like for the US, each nation would be picking sides (except Djibouti which houses everyone )

 

[j_hungary]

In terms of tech, I think they can do it in 10 years. Churning out 3 SSNs and a SSBN a year, by the mid 2030s, the fleet will be considerable. It will need to be deployed strategically, but it will be above the force ratios the Soviet’s had deployed, in the 80s, in the Pacific and Indian oceans vis a vi the US.

The key will come down to basing. Cambodia and Djibouti are likely, Myanmar is hard (possibly on one of their islands) but possible with considerable Chinese “investment”, and beyond that it doesn’t look likely.

By providing a base, just like for the US, each nation would be picking sides (except Djibouti which houses everyone )

10 years is very generous, China is lacking behind a number of naval tech, they don't have a functioning naval rail gun (AGS was produced in 2010) and tilt rotor technology does not exist in China, and is at least decade away with VTOL tech, none of the Chinese war ship have Enhanced Stealth tech like the Zumwalt. If we use Zumwalt as a base line, 15 years is actually very generous.

Basing wise, Djibouti is too far to be effective, Pakistan would probably a better choice than Cambodia but even Pakistan I don't think you guys are going to host a Chinese fleet, not to mention the proximity between Pakistan and India, if Pakistan start hosting Chinese fleet, then I would imagine India would probably looking for similar arrangement to the US, which is why it's unlikely.

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

The surface ship advantages are already obvious. What PLAN lacks is supplies and logistics typically provided by oversea bases. A 052D could basically sink multiple Arleigh Burke II/III before an AB could damage it because most Arleigh Burke are old and their radar and anti-ship missiles are craps. Remember -- the US has only fought terrorists in the last 20-30 years and their DDGs were mostly equipped with anti-air missiles. The Harpoons are subsonic shits that have ZERO CHANCE to get past 052D's CIWS. So the real naval batte advanage has to be evaluated where the battles take place. In East Asia in the First and Second Chains, advantages are PLAN as it could summon land-based missiles and supplies are readily available. Outside that, it's all American.

The harpoon is more surviving anti-ship Missiles then your supersonic YJ-12 which have a big RCS and IR signature due to speed and ab class destroyers not come alone they come in groups/battle groups and they have also RAM (rolling airframe Missiles) and evolved sea sparrow short range SAMs specifically designed to intercept supersonic ASCMs

And also USN will not come alone USAF will also there for USN help, B-1 from Guam and maybe from Diego Garcia equipped with LARSM with a better survivability than your supersonic YJ-12 with range of 1000 km (out of range of any PLAN long-range SAMs) will take care of your ships in SCS and in Pacific ocean

And last USN not considered ALL SUPERSONIC ANTI-SHIP MISSILES as major threat but USN consider hybrid anti-ship cruise missiles as a major threat like Russian sizzler and your YJ-18 (subsonic in cruise phase +supersonic dash in terminal phase)

They have both qualities of subsonic ( stealth) and (supersonic ((less reaction time)

 

[Beijingwalker]

They forgot that all scenarios change with absolute power, so called allies are never forever, once you become a dominant power, all others suddenly will request to become your allies. Once China outmatch US in absolute power, allies and overseas bases will spring up all over the world. Britain use to have bases and colonies all over the world, but its naval dominance was gone quickly with the decline of its industrial and manufacturing capability, now British navy is just a joke.

 

[FuturePAF]

10 years is very generous, China is lacking behind a number of naval tech, they don't have a functioning naval rail gun (AGS was produced in 2010) and tilt rotor technology does not exist in China, and is at least decade away with VTOL tech, none of the Chinese war ship have Enhanced Stealth tech like the Zumwalt. If we use Zumwalt as a base line, 15 years is actually very generous.

Basing wise, Djibouti is too far to be effective, Pakistan would probably a better choice than Cambodia but even Pakistan I don't think you guys are going to host a Chinese fleet, not to mention the proximity between Pakistan and India, if Pakistan start hosting Chinese fleet, then I would imagine India would probably looking for similar arrangement to the US, which is why it's unlikely.

Even the USN is “moving back” from the Zumwalt for its next gen destroyer, a less ambitious design, and actually looks more akin to the PLAN’s Type 055.

The rail gun and tilt rotor tech may not be perfected, but 10 years is a long time in naval tech development, with the level of investment China is making, they will break through relatively quickly.

When the tech is known, catching up is a matter of R&D and espionage.

I suspect more replenishment at sea with support ships utilizing Chinese commercial ports for the next 5-10 years, politics and economics will dictate what happens beyond that. China has learned a lot participating in the counter piracy patrols of the last decade.