China may possess a second-rate Navy in terms of quality. But their number one status in terms of size is all that matters. This was a lesson the Americans once knew well and applied with devastating effects on their enemies. We’ve forgotten that reality.
by Brandon J. Weichert
December 2, 2024
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Remember this, frankly, tired old mantra: quantity has a quality of its own. This was something that the Americans once
understood. During the Second World War, the United States used its massive advantages as a large industrial power to become the
“Arsenal of Democracy.”
We supplied the weapons and equipment needed to keep the overall Allied war effort going, even before the Americans officially entered the war on the side of the Allies after the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, America supplied vital weapons and wartime equipment to the embattled militaries of Britain and the Soviet Union, indeed, the only reason the Soviets were able to overwhelm the Nazis was thanks to the gallant efforts of the U.S. Merchant Marines who
ensured that critical U.S. military supplies reached the Red Army.
U.S. Manufacturing is Broken
The United States cannot accomplish a similar task today. Its defense industry is a shambles and has been for decades. Indeed, unless radical reforms are implemented on day one of the new Trump administration, the defense industrial base will continue its slide into absolute obsolescence. Meanwhile, America’s greatest strategic rival, the People’s Republic of China, and even to a lesser degree, the Russian Federation, have spent the last few decades turning themselves into what I like to call the
“Arsenals of Autocracy.”
One decisive advantage that China’s “Arsenal of Autocracy” has granted Beijing over Washington is in the arena of shipbuilding. As I recently reported in these pages, the Chinese shipbuilding capacity is
officially 232 times greater than that of U.S. shipyards. Because of this tragic reality, China now possesses the world’s largest navy.
This is a serious inflection point in the history of America’s modern navy. Not since before WWII has the American Navy found itself in a similar position. Unlike at that point in history, the U.S. Navy today, from an industrial standpoint, is a spent force whereas back in the WWII era, America had latent industrial capacities that were being activated by the increased demand of the war.
The interesting part of U.S. military technology during WWII, the last major war that the Americans decisively won, is that not all the systems employed by the Americans were the most technologically advanced.
For example, German Wehrmacht Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) were
infinitely technologically superior to the U.S.-supplied Sherman MBTs. Yet, the American systems completely overwhelmed their Nazi rivals simply through sheer numbers. The lack of complexity made the Shermans a more desirable platform because they were much easier to quickly assemble by factory workers back home in the United States.
Quantity is All That Matters
American submarines, too, during that war were far less impressive than those of their German Kriegsmarine enemies. Indeed, by the time the Nazis surrendered to the Allies in 1945,
according to Proceedings magazine, “Germany surrendered to the Allies a submarine fleet so advanced that no practical defense against it existed at the time.”
Indeed, as Navy Lt. Cmdr. A.N. Glennon wrote in Proceedings back in 1961, “no Navy—including the United States Navy—had submarines that even came close to matching the potency of Germany’s U-Boats until the navies of the victorious Allies radically modernized their submarine forces.”
What killed the Germans throughout the war, as well as the Japanese, and certainly, the Italians, was the fact that the Allies, thanks mainly to the United States, could simply outproduce the platforms of the Axis Powers. Even though many of those German and Japanese systems were significantly more advanced.
Today, the Americans find themselves in the position of the Axis Powers, particularly when it comes to the U.S. Navy. Almost every ship in the U.S. Navy is technically more advanced and complex than those belonging to its potential rivals in either China or Russia, although China is rapidly catching up in terms of capabilities.
But America’s
shipyards are a shambles. The U.S. shipyard crisis is preventing a requisite number of submarines, aircraft carriers, and other important warships from being produced at the quantity that is needed to deter China.
Those who disagree with my assessment will point to the fact that China’s Navy is relatively untested in combat. Indeed, they are. So, too, was the U.S. Navy heading into the Second World War. And, like the Americans in WWII, the Chinese have simpler systems in greater quantities that can simply overwhelm the handful of more advanced American warships and submarines, in much the same way the Americans were able to swarm their Axis-Power enemies in the last great war.
If America Doesn’t Repair the Damage, It Will Never Win a Major War
And America has yet to take any meaningful steps to truly ameliorate the ongoing, decades-long shipyard crisis, at a time when China’s shipyards are producing increasingly advanced warships like sausages. When the
shooting war between China and America erupts in the Indo-Pacific, U.S. forces will be overwhelmed by the sheer number of lesser advanced, though more numerous, Chinese ships.
China may possess a
second-rate Navy in terms of quality. But their number one status in terms of size is all that matters. This was a lesson the Americans once knew well and applied with devastating effects on their enemies. We’ve forgotten that reality.
