Covid-19 News and Discussions


COVID summer wave grows, especially in West, with new variant LB.1 on the rise​


By Alexander Tin
Edited By Paula Cohen
June 21, 2024 / 4:10 PM EDT / CBS News

A summertime wave of COVID-19 infections is arriving earlier than last year across a growing share of the country, federal data suggests, as a new variant called LB.1 could be on track to become the latest dominant strain of the virus.

For the first time in months, the CDC estimates that no states or territories are seeing COVID-19 infections slow this past week. Key virus indicators appear to be worsening fastest across a number of western states, where trends first began climbing this month.

Levels of virus detections in wastewater from the western region, often an early signal of rising COVID-19 cases, are already near the threshold the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention deems to be "high" levels of infection risk. Nursing home COVID-19 cases had also accelerated in recent weeks from this region.

An average of 1.23% of emergency room visits were from COVID-19 patients in HHS Region 9, a grouping of states that spans Arizona through Hawaii. This is now the worst average of COVID-19 emergency room visits in the region since early February.

Since early during the pandemic, authorities have tracked surges of COVID-19 after a springtime lull in cases, though at different times during the warmer months.


Last year's increase did not begin to pick up nationwide until late July. Trends of the virus in emergency rooms peaked around the end of August and early September, right as officials were gearing up to roll out a new COVID-19 vaccine shot.

"For flu and for RSV, we have years and years of data with very similar trends over time. So, you can't quite set your watch by when those seasons are going to start, but you can get close. For COVID, that's not true at all," Ruth Link-Gelles, head of the CDC's COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness research, said this month at a Food and Drug Administration meeting.

The rise of LB.1 and KP.3 variants​

COVID-19 cases are picking up at the same time that the CDC says it is tracking two new variants growing in proportion nationwide. Scientists call them KP.3 and LB.1.

KP.3 has reached roughly a third of cases nationwide, up from 25% two weeks ago, and LB.1 makes up 17.5% of cases, as of the CDC's "Nowcast" projections published Friday.


Both are displacing a close relative, a so-called "FLiRT" variant called KP.2, which had risen to dominance last month. The CDC's projections so far have LB.1 starting to grow at a faster rate than KP.3, suggesting LB.1 might overtake KP.3.

All three of these variants share a common ancestor in the JN.1 strain that drove a wave of cases last winter.

"We've seen descendants of that moving along, that's KP.2, KP.3 and LB.1. So these other new variants, these came up relatively quickly. I wouldn't say they caught us by surprise, but because they happened relatively quickly, we had to react," the FDA's Dr. Peter Marks said Friday.

Marks was speaking at a webinar hosted by the group Champions for Vaccine Education, Equity and Progress, defending the agency's move this month to pick KP.2 as the strain for Moderna and Pfizer's updated shots this fall.

That had reversed an earlier decision to recommend shots for JN.1, as a panel of the FDA's outside advisers had favored instead. At the time that the panel was picking between the two variants, there was significantly more data on picking JN.1 as the shot for the fall.

Switching to KP.2 instead was not based on "iron-clad evidence," Marks conceded, but officials hope it will offer at least a marginal improvement over shots aimed at the older variant.

"There's probably some degree of cross-protection, but the optimal protection probably involves making sure we get closest to what is actually circulating now," he said.


Since the FDA's meeting, the CDC has begun to track KP.3 and LB.1's rise to overtake KP.2.

It is not clear whether the CDC has observed any changes in KP.3 or LB.1's severity, as it has tracked for some past new variants. A spokesperson for the agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Early lab data from scientists in Japan, which were released this month as a preprint that has yet to be peer-reviewed, found one of LB.1's mutations — a change called S:S31del, which KP.3 and JN.1 does not have — could enable it to spread faster.
 

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Covid Situation Report: Jun 20, 2024​

Update on Covid providing information on positivity and hospital admissions for England and its regions. This post is best viewed using the browser or Substack app.​

INDEPENDENT SAGE
JUN 21, 2024

Introduction​

This weekly Covid Situation report was originally posted on my substack ‘Seeing the Forest for the Trees’ where I publish articles on Covid and other topics. You can access my substack at the following link.
Seeing the Forest for the Trees
A reminder that not all of the data previously included in the situation update is now available on a weekly basis. Where relevant, changes to the content and data sources have been noted.
This week’s report has more data available with the return of the UKHSA surveillance report, which is now only published every two weeks. In addition, the report covers recent data released by the ONS on the impact of Long Covid. Finally, an update on the Spring 2024 booster campaign is provided.

Summary.

The data this week shows that Covid levels are rising with both positivity rates and hospital admissions increasing.
In the past week, the positivity rates for Covid increased from 8.4% to 10.0% and are at their highest since the end of Dec 2023.
Weekly hospital admissions also increased to levels last seen at the start of May.
Recent data from the Office for National Statistics confirmed that in March 2024, 1.1 million individuals in England and Scotland reported experiencing Long Covid symptoms for more than 12 weeks, with the highest rates occurring among those aged 45 to 64.
The Spring 2024 booster campaign in England closes at the end of June. As of now, slightly more than 4 million doses have been administered, but there has been a decline in the number of doses distributed this week. It is unlikely that vaccination coverage for all eligible groups will reach the levels of the 2023 booster campaigns.
As always, it’s important to remember that the risk of hospitalisation from Covid infection increases significantly with age and for those immunocompromised. Also Long Covid remains a risk for all as shown by the recent ONS report. Therefore, it is prudent to take appropriate measures such as self-isolating when experiencing Covid symptoms and enhancing ventilation or wearing masks whenever possible.
For those who are interested, I recently published an article covering the ONS data on Long Covid in more detail which can be found here. Also a comprehensive review of the evidence in support of wearing masks is available here.

Status of main respiratory diseases in England

This section presents the latest available data on positivity rates for primary respiratory infections in England. It is important to understand that positivity differs from prevalence, which refers to the overall percentage of COVID-19 in the general population. Appendix 1 provides a more detailed explanation of the difference and why positivity rates are a useful indicator of trends in Covid infection levels
The chart below displays the test positivity rates for the main respiratory illnesses in England, including Flu, Covid, RSV, and Rhinovirus.

The Covid positivity rate increased to 10.0% for the week ending Jun 16 indicating a resurgence of Covid levels in the general population. Meanwhile, the flu positivity rate has continued to fall and remains significantly lower than that of Covid. Additionally, RSV rates have dropped to very low levels, accompanied by a minor decrease in Rhinovirus rates.
The final chart in this section shows weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 people in England for the main respiratory diseases.

For the week ending Jun 16, weekly hospital admission rates for Covid increased by 20% over the prior week to 3.3 admissions per 100,000 people confirming that Covid levels are once again increasing. Note that hospital admission data for Flu and RSV is no longer published.
While the age data for hospital admissions is no longer published, history indicates that this increase in hospitalisations will predominantly affect the over 75 year old age group. This age group is the most recently vaccinated and should be well protected against hospitalisation, suggesting that prevalence levels might be higher among the general population.
It's important to note that while testing policies have been updated from April 1, 2024, the guidelines for testing patients showing Covid symptoms or when a positive result would change the patient's treatment remained unchanged. Consequently, the number of Covid hospital admissions should be a dependable indicator of the virus's prevalence in the community for the period shown in these charts.

Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy​

This section gives a more detailed examination of the most recent daily Covid data for hospitals in England.
NHS England stopped the weekly publication of data used to create these dashboards from April 4, 2024 and have moved to a monthly publication schedule. The next update will be on July 11, 2024 covering May Covid hospital admissions and bed occupancy.

Impact of Long Covid

In April, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a report on Long Covid in the UK, drawing on data from the 2023/2024 Winter Infection Survey. The main findings of the report are detailed in my recent Substack article, available here.
The ONS report found that an estimated 2.0 million individuals (3.3% of the population) in England and Scotland reported experiencing Long Covid of any duration from February 6 to March 7, 2024. However, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO), Long Covid is defined by symptoms that persist for more than 12 weeks. Recently the ONS have released supplementary information that provides data based on the WHO definition of Long Covid.
Based on the WHO definition, there are an estimated 1.1 million people (1.9% of the population) suffering from Long Covid in England and Scotland. The following chart shows the percent of the population in each age group who report suffering from Long Covid for over 12 weeks.

The chart shows the rates of self-reported Long Covid of any duration was greatest in people aged 45 to 64 years, with an estimated 480,000 individuals. Conversely, the youngest and oldest age groups reported the lowest rates.
The next chart shows the number of people who report their activity levels being impacted ‘not at all’, ‘a little’, and ‘a lot’ by Long Covid symptoms lasting longer than 12 weeks by age. Hovering over each bar reveals the number of affected people in thousands.

The chart show that whilst most peoples activity levels are impacted a little or not at all, a substantial number report a significant impact. Among the working-age population (aged 18 to 64 years), this accounts for just over 200,000 individuals.
The following chart shows the percent of those suffering from Long Covid who report that physical and mental activity worsens their symptoms across the age groups.

The chart indicates that across all age groups, the majority of individuals with Long Covid reported a worsening of symptoms following physical and mental activity. Younger adults were especially affected by this trend.
The final chart in this section shows the number of people economically inactive due to long term sickness in the UK for those aged 16 to 64 years old.

The chart shows a significant rise in economic inactivity due to long-term sickness following Covid, with the figure now exceeding a record 2.8 million people. Various reasons have been proposed for this increase, with Long Covid cited as a contributing factor. The high number of Long Covid cases reported by working aged individuals suggests that it may be a significant factor in this increased economic inactivity within the workforce.

Spring 2024 Booster Campaign​

The Spring 2024 booster campaign started on April 15 and will close at the end of June. Considering the decline in vaccine efficacy after 15 weeks, a successful Spring 2024 booster campaign is important to protect the most vulnerable populations.
The following chart displays the weekly number of doses administered during the booster campaigns for England to date. The Spring campaigns are represented in green, the Autumn campaigns in brown, and doses administered outside of these campaigns are depicted in grey.

The Spring booster campaigns are exclusively for individuals aged 75 and above, residents of care homes, and those with compromised immune systems. According to NHS England, approximately 7.3 million people qualify for the Spring campaign in England.
The Spring 2024 booster campaign in England is progressing at a similar pace as the Spring 2023 campaign, with just over 4 million doses administered to date. However, progress is slowing, with just 135,535 doses administered last week.
Finally, the following table indicates that disparities among the eligible groups remains an issue. It compares the latest available coverage of the Spring 2024 booster campaign by eligible group to the final coverage of the 2023 booster campaigns for England, Scotland and Wales. Unfortunately, care home coverage is not available for the 2023 booster campaigns for England and for the immunosuppressed in Wales.

The data shows that across all home nations and eligible groups, the present vaccine booster coverage is trailing the levels reached at the end of the Spring and Autumn 2023 booster campaigns, with only a few weeks left until this campaign ends. Notably, individuals with compromised immune systems continue to have lower vaccine coverage.
Just a reminder that the Spring 2023 booster campaign closes at the end of June.
From now until the 30 June, there are thousands of appointments available every day across the country, including at pharmacies and GP practices. Some areas also offer convenient walk-in options, with a full list of walk-in sites available online.
You can check to see if you are eligible and book a booster at the following link.
Book a Covid Booster

In conclusion​

Despite the reduced level of data now published, the available information indicates that Covid levels are once again rising.
Long Covid remains an issue with over 1.1 million people in England and Scotland reporting symptoms lasting longer than 12 weeks.
The Spring 2024 booster is progressing reasonably well, with just over 4 million doses administered so far. However, the immunosuppressed remain under vaccinated.
As always, if you have any comments on this Covid Situation Report or suggestions for topics to cover, please post a message below.
Thanks for reading Independent SAGE continues! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work.

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Appendix 1. Test positivity rates and prevalence

Positivity rates are derived from the results of hospital laboratory tests conducted on patients exhibiting symptoms of respiratory diseases. Test positivity is the percentage of patients who test positive for Covid of the total number of patients tested. Since the individuals tested for this measure are not a representative sample of the general population it differs from prevalence, which is derived from a representative sample of the population.
Test positivity rates, while not directly estimating the number of Covid infections in the general population, can be a valuable indicator of the infection trend. The panel chart below compares the weekly test positivity rate among hospital patients with respiratory symptoms to the prevalence of Covid in the general population, as reported in the Winter Infection Survey.

The chart shows that the weekly test positivity rates for patients with symptoms of respiratory infections follows the same pattern as the prevalence for Covid reported by the Winter Infection Survey. Since the Winter Infection Survey is based on a representative sample of the general population this supports using test positivity as a useful indicator for infection trends.
 

COVID POEM​

my first one (!!!)​


ESTHER COHEN
JUN 21, 2024

I’ve never written
a COVID poem although
I’ve read Other Peoples
especially meditators
(Stay still. Stop busyness etc)
For the first time we have Covid
on days too hot
to go outside.
Good air conditioning.
Enough food for the entire
building. Piles of books.
Many streaming movies.
(surprised Tig Notaro I love her
new movie was Not Good. I
still love her.)
We feel OK enough (a cold.)
Peter talked to his doctor on Zoom
then took Paxlovid. I talked
to my doctor on the phone.
Zinc and Vitamin C.
We both feel OK enough.
Colds. Sleeping.
A different life.
Quiet. Looking
out the window.
Happy enough
right here.
 

COVID KP.3 variant remains dominant in the US making up 33.1% of cases: See latest data​

With a two-week period ending on June 22, the CDC Nowcast data tracker predicts that KP.3 positive cases will rise to 33.1% followed by KP.2 at 20.8%.​

Ahjané Forbes
USA TODAY

Positive cases for the COVID-19 KP.3 variant are rising, according to newly released data by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The KP.3 variant has risen from accounting for 25% of positive cases to 33.1%. The KP.3 variant has become the new frontrunner after JN.1 held the reigns for several months after making its first appearance in 2023.
Using the CDC’s Nowcast data tracker, it shows the projections of the COVID variants over a two-week period. The tool is used to help estimate current prevalence of variants, but does not predict future spread of the virus, the CDC said.
The government agency's data tracker shows that for the two-week time period between June 9 and June 22 the KP.3 variant is at 33.1%. Closely following behind is KP.2 at 20.8% while JN.1 only has 1.6% of positive cases, the data shows.
Here’s what you need to know about the KP.3 variant.

What is the KP.3 variant?​

Like JN.1 and "FLiRT" variants KP.1.1 and KP.2, KP.3 is a similar strain. CDC Spokesperson, Rosa Norman, said in a statement to USA TODAY that the KP.3 variant is, “a sublineage of the JN.1 lineage” which comes from the Omicron variant.

What are symptoms of KP.3?​

Norman says the symptoms associated with KP.3 are identical to those from JN.1. Which include:

  • Fever or chills
  • Cough
  • Sore throat
  • Congestion or runny nose
  • Headache
  • Muscle aches
  • Difficulty breathing
  • Fatigue
  • New loss of taste or smell
  • "Brain fog" (feeling less wakeful and aware)
  • Gastrointestinal symptoms (upset stomach, mild diarrhea, vomiting)
The CDC notes that the list does not include all possible symptoms and that symptoms may change with new variants and can vary by person.

In general, the agency says, people with COVID-19 have a wide range of symptoms, ranging from mild to severe illness. Symptoms may appear two to 14 days after exposure.

How can we protect ourselves if we are concerned about the KP.3 variant?​

Norman suggests that everyone that is 6 months old and older get the 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccine. She said the vaccine will help to protect against any serious illnesses from COVID.

COVID-19 positivity rates, deaths and hospitalizations​

CDC data shows which states has the lowest and highest COVID-19 positivity rates from June 8, 2024 to June 17, 2024.
Within the past week COVID test positivity has risen to 5.4%, the CDC data shows.
Norman said that COVID-19 related deaths and hospitalizations remain low since March 2020. On March 28, 2020 there were 3,211 reported COVID-19 related deaths in the United States. The following week on April 4, 2020 the death toll rose to 10,113. Now in 2024 there have been 132 deaths reported as of June 8, CDC data shows.
 

21-JUN-2024

Cannabis use tied to increased risk of severe COVID-19​

Similar to smokers, cannabis users nearly twice as likely to need hospitalization, intensive care when infected with the virus

Peer-Reviewed Publication
WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE



Nurse in ICU
IMAGE:
NURSE MEGAN ROBERTS CARES FOR A COVID-19 PATIENT IN AN INTENSIVE CARE UNIT AT BARNES-JEWISH HOSPITAL IN 2020. A STUDY BY RESEARCHERS AT WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE IN ST. LOUIS SHOWS THAT PEOPLE WITH COVID-19 WHO USED CANNABIS WERE MORE LIKELY TO BE HOSPITALIZED AND REQUIRE INTENSIVE CARE THAN THOSE WHO DID NOT USE THE DRUG.

view more

CREDIT: MATT MILLER/WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
As the deadly disease that came to be known as COVID-19 started spreading in late 2019, scientists rushed to answer a critical question: Who is most at risk?
They quickly recognized that a handful of characteristics — including age, smoking history, high body mass index (BMI) and the presence of other diseases such as diabetes — made people infected with the virus much more likely to become seriously ill and even die. But one suggested risk factor remains unconfirmed more than four years later: cannabis use. Evidence has emerged over time indicating both protective and harmful effects.
Now, a new study by researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis points decisively to the latter: Cannabis is linked to an increased risk of serious illness for those with COVID-19.
The study, published June 21 in JAMA Network Open, analyzed the health records of 72,501 people seen for COVID-19 at health centers in a major Midwestern health-care system during the first two years of the pandemic. The researchers found that people who reported using any form of cannabis at least once in the year before developing COVID-19 were significantly more likely to need hospitalization and intensive care than were people with no such history. This elevated risk of severe illness was on par with that from smoking.
“There’s this sense among the public that cannabis is safe to use, that it’s not as bad for your health as smoking or drinking, that it may even be good for you,” said senior author Li-Shiun Chen, MD, DSc, a professor of psychiatry. “I think that’s because there hasn’t been as much research on the health effects of cannabis as compared to tobacco or alcohol. What we found is that cannabis use is not harmless in the context of COVID-19. People who reported yes to current cannabis use, at any frequency, were more likely to require hospitalization and intensive care than those who did not use cannabis.”
Cannabis use was different than tobacco smoking in one key outcome measure: survival. While smokers were significantly more likely to die of COVID-19 than nonsmokers — a finding that fits with numerous other studies — the same was not true of cannabis users, the study showed.
“The independent effect of cannabis is similar to the independent effect of tobacco regarding the risk of hospitalization and intensive care,” Chen said. “For the risk of death, tobacco risk is clear but more evidence is needed for cannabis.”
The study analyzed deidentified electronic health records of people who were seen for COVID-19 at BJC HealthCare hospitals and clinics in Missouri and Illinois between Feb. 1, 2020, and Jan. 31, 2022. The records contained data on demographic characteristics such as sex, age and race; other medical conditions such as diabetes and heart disease; use of substances including tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and vaping; and outcomes of the illness — specifically, hospitalization, intensive-care unit (ICU) admittance and survival.
COVID-19 patients who reported that they had used cannabis in the previous year were 80% more likely to be hospitalized and 27% more likely to be admitted to the ICU than patients who had not used cannabis, after taking into account tobacco smoking, vaccination, other health conditions, date of diagnosis, and demographic factors. For comparison, tobacco smokers with COVID-19 were 72% more likely to be hospitalized and 22% more likely to require intensive care than were nonsmokers, after adjusting for other factors.
These results contradict some other research suggesting that cannabis may help the body fight off viral diseases such as COVID-19.
“Most of the evidence suggesting that cannabis is good for you comes from studies in cells or animals,” Chen said. “The advantage of our study is that it is in people and uses real-world health-care data collected across multiple sites over an extended time period. All the outcomes were verified: hospitalization, ICU stay, death. Using this data set, we were able to confirm the well-established effects of smoking, which suggests that the data are reliable.”
The study was not designed to answer the question of why cannabis use might make COVID-19 worse. One possibility is that inhaling marijuana smoke injures delicate lung tissue and makes it more vulnerable to infection, in much the same way that tobacco smoke causes lung damage that puts people at risk of pneumonia, the researchers said. That isn’t to say that taking edibles would be safer than smoking joints. It is also possible that cannabis, which is known to suppress the immune system, undermines the body’s ability to fight off viral infections no matter how it is consumed, the researchers noted.
“We just don’t know whether edibles are safer,” said first author Nicholas Griffith, MD, a medical resident at Washington University. Griffith was a medical student at Washington University when he led the study. “People were asked a yes-or-no question: ‘Have you used cannabis in the past year?’ That gave us enough information to establish that if you use cannabis, your health-care journey will be different, but we can’t know how much cannabis you have to use, or whether it makes a difference whether you smoke it or eat edibles. Those are questions we’d really like the answers to. I hope this study opens the door to more research on the health effects of cannabis.”
 

Life with long Covid


‘A 30-second walk would exhaust me beyond reason’: Natacha’s life with long Covid​




Natacha Gray had an active life, diving, climbing and playing music, before illness left her so tired she would collapse on the way to the couch. She discusses two and a half devastating years – and how she stays optimistic
By Sam Wollaston

Wed 19 Jun 2024 10.00 BST
Share


Natacha Gray is singing the song she has written about living with long Covid. It’s a lovely, haunting song and she sings it beautifully. It begins:
There’s a piano in my home
Untouched for many months
With black and white keys
That gather up dust


Natacha Gray: Long Covid Song


00:00:00

00:05:15
The piano is there, in the corner of the room, but Natacha is sitting on the couch, feet up, with an acoustic guitar. “I used to play the piano a lot,” she says. “I lost the ability to walk, to see friends and go to work. But to lose the ability to sit at a piano in your living room is pretty drastic. And I used to write a lot of songs. Not being able to play or create because my brain wasn’t working right was pretty rough. I actually wrote poems because they were short and I could do them during little bursts of energy. I used the poems to create lyrics later.”
Natacha – one of 950 people who responded to a Guardian reader callout – got Covid just before Christmas 2021, when she was 27. Not especially badly: she felt she was getting better. She went back to work – customer services in an office – but started having breathing problems and feeling exhausted, even after lots of rest. “One morning I sat there waiting to start work and I just stared at a black screen for half an hour without a thought. Someone came up to me, I remember, and asked: ‘Are you OK? Do you need to go home?’ And I went: ‘I think so.’ That was the last time I worked in that office.”
She and her fiance, Tom, had recently moved in with her dad and his wife outside Bolton – just for a few weeks, while they found somewhere for themselves. Two and a half years on, they’re still here. Tom works upstairs; he drops in and out of the interview, with tea, checking Natacha’s OK, helping with the memories. Dad John sometimes appears at the door to chip in. He has to leave when she sings the song, though – it gets to him every time.
Natacha at the summit of Mont Pelvoux in the French Alps in 2010.
View image in fullscreen
Natacha at the summit of Mont Pelvoux in the French Alps in 2010. Photograph: Courtesy of Natacha Gray
On the walls are photos of a super-active, outdoorsy family – Natacha diving on the Great Barrier Reef, rafting, climbing, ecstatic on the summit of a snowy peak. It was a long way down from there.

She recalls an early low point. “I was at what we call level zero, which is complete energy crash: I couldn’t move, speak, turn my head.” And she was finding it hard to breathe, so Tom took her to hospital. “I was sat waiting on those seats, staring at the front doors going round and round and people coming in and out. All these people were sick, but to me they seemed to be doing insurmountable things. There was a frail old woman blowing her nose, and I thought: ‘You look so healthy to me – you’re so full of energy.’”
“It was as if you had locked-in syndrome,” says Tom. “She was thirsty for an hour, maybe two, but couldn’t tell anyone, she couldn’t communicate.” Tom has become very good at recognising where Natacha is at and knowing what she needs.
Her GP diagnosed long Covid, and the local long Covid clinic gave her some fatigue management video lessons, and later some sessions with a physiotherapist, who taught her how to increase her energy levels. “We started with 30-second walks that would exhaust me beyond reason.” Another GP told her she had chronic fatigue syndrome. “He said it was lifelong and there was nothing I could do about it really. That sent me into a downward spiral.”
I spent a whole week wondering
If my entire future – life –
Was slipping through my fingers
Painted with an unknown colour

Natacha trimming a tree in summer 2021, a few months before she contracted Covid.
View image in fullscreen
Trimming a tree in summer 2021, a few months before she contracted Covid. Photograph: Courtesy of Natacha Gray

Fortunately, the long Covid clinic didn’t agree with the second GP, and Natacha was referred to a therapist for counselling, which she says saved her. “It’s difficult to describe long Covid simply, but if it is one thing, it is heartbreaking. I was unable to work, think, move. My only exercise would be getting to the couch in the morning, trips to the bathroom during the day, and going back to my bed in the evening. Often I would collapse on these tiny trips, and someone would have to pick me up off the floor.”
I asked Dr Binita Kane, the Manchester-based respiratory physician I’ve been speaking to throughout this series, whether it’s known why some people get long Covid, while others recover quickly. “We don’t officially know the answer to that: the research hasn’t been done,” she says. But when she looks at the medical histories of the patients she sees in her private long Covid clinic, she can identify clear themes. “I definitely see one group who have an allergic-type history such as mild asthma, eczema, hay fever and, say, lactose intolerance as a child, or a bit of irritable bowel. Another common finding is a previous viral infection with a prolonged period of recovery, such as glandular fever. Other themes are having a head injury in the year before they got ill, or going through severe stress or trauma in the run-up to getting Covid. We need to research whether these are risk factors, and why.” Natacha says she does get bad hay fever.
Natacha spent her days sitting on the couch – this couch – watching the seasons change and the world passing by outside the window. Everything was difficult – eating, thinking, speaking, even sleeping and laughing. “I couldn’t cry for months, because influxes of emotions would drain my battery immediately. Imagine you are so upset about something that you burst into sobs, and immediately slump down, so tired you can’t lift your hands, or push your hair out of your face, or call for help.”
It changed things with Tom, who had to take on a whole new role as a carer. “I’ve had to accept that it’s frustrating and tiring for him. I was a lot more, you know, ‘I’m an independent woman’ before, and suddenly I’m like a child who needs to be taken care of by someone who was your equal and now needs to be more than that. You still are equals, but it’s hard to find that balance. Where does the carer stop and the partner and the friend begin?”
Natacha celebrates with her dad, John, after they finished tiling a kitchen in August 2021.
View image in fullscreen
‘I was incredibly lucky to have people around me’ … celebrating with her dad, John, after they finished tiling a kitchen in August 2021. Photograph: Courtesy of Natacha Gray

It sounds like Tom did good. He learned to understand how Natacha was feeling when she couldn’t speak, to anticipate the crashes; he’s always prepared. “Like the other day we were out and I was getting cold (I am affected by temperature a lot more). And he just pulled out a scarf and gloves and hat like it was nothing: ‘Here you go – cover up.’ I started crying because he shows care in so many small ways that always catch me off-guard.”
Oh yes, Natacha can – and does – cry now. She chokes up a little when she talks about the really dark times, when it felt as if she was locked in and couldn’t communicate. But mostly, when she talks about how brilliant Tom has been.
And she can go out now, too. They went to Chester Zoo, because Tom found out it offers free wheelchairs …
The zoo looks different from down here
It’s full of people who part like waves
I ache from bumpy bridges
And watching butterflies fly overhead

It was a success, and led them to buy their own chair, with knobbly tyres for more rugged, off-road adventures. It’s not quite the mountains of before, but maybe a tiny step in that direction.
Natacha has been taking tiny steps herself – actually walking. Not far to begin with: to the end of the garden (and carried back), then a bit further. She set a new record the other day. “Was it like a kilometre? It was crazy,” she says. “It was the slowest kilometre anyone has ever walked. I used the wheelchair as a walker, and I kept saying to Tom: ‘I’m taller than everyone!’ It was weird because for the last two years I’ve been shorter than everyone, sitting down.” Still, they never leave the house without the chair.
Natacha kayaking on Lizard Island, Australia, in 2017.
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Kayaking on Lizard Island, Australia, in 2017. Photograph: Courtesy of Natacha Gray

The progress Natacha has made, she feels, is down to them figuring it out for themselves – what to do, diet, exercise and so on. She hasn’t been impressed with the treatment and support from the health service. A referral to a cardiologist simply never materialised. “The NHS long Covid system was slow and there was very little of it,” she says. Yes, she had some counselling, but it took a year to get it and now she’s not seeing anyone. She has family abroad (her mother is French), “And everyone goes: ‘You’re not seeing your doctor? They’re not checking-up on you?’ It seems they’re doing very little here compared with other countries.”
Kane says that 2 million people struggling with a multisystem chronic problem has created a huge challenge for an already overstretched NHS. She describes the organisation as a “juggernaut” that lacks the agility to keep up with the changes, and says a lack of funding and research has meant that patients aren’t getting the treatment, support and rehabilitation that they should be.
It’s not just the NHS that Natacha takes issue with but the whole government response. She thinks that people like her have been forgotten and abandoned, that long Covid has been brushed under the carpet. “If I had had more support, I wouldn’t have tried to force myself back to work after four weeks off, because I had to,” she says. “That probably tanked my health.”
She ended up leaving that job, because she couldn’t do it even while working from home on the couch. Then she was rejected for both disability living allowance and mobility allowance. “Why? Because I’m not receiving any treatment or any medication and I haven’t had a crash for a while. I’m not receiving treatment or medication because there isn’t any and I’m not crashing because we have spent the last few years figuring out how to avoid crashes,” she says.
Natacha with Tom.
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‘He shows care in so many small ways’ … Natacha with Tom. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian

Kane has an idea why people like Natacha aren’t getting more support. “If you acknowledge long Covid as a disability, it costs money and requires significant investment to wrap the right support around children and adults, from home to school to work to clinical services,” she says.
Natacha says she has not been believed. “Constantly. Because there are things in the news about people pretending to have long Covid to get out of work. If someone faked having a broken leg, would you assume everyone with a broken leg was faking it? No, you wouldn’t, but they do with long Covid.”
To the list of things Natacha has lost to long Covid – a long list that includes health, muscle, mental health, time, mobility, memories, passions, music, freedom – she can add faith. Faith in the NHS and the system.
She has gained one good thing though: she and Tom got married. It came from a low point. “My thoughts had turned so dark, so depressed and hopeless, everything felt worthless, I genuinely couldn’t see how life was going to get better. And I felt as if I was ruining Tom’s life. I felt a lot of guilt.”
They had previously planned a big wedding in France before the pandemic. “I said: ‘We’ve put off our wedding for three years because of all this. I don’t really care about having a big wedding – I just want to be married to you.’”
So that’s what they did: they eloped. Well, kind of – they drove to a hotel in the Lake District, with four friends as witnesses. Tom fetches the photo album. Natacha says: “I would stand for a few pictures, then sit in the wheelchair again; it was the most I’d stood for two years. Energy and happiness carried me through the day – it was wonderful.”
Natacha sits on the floor playing her guitar.
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‘I’m optimistic.’ Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian

Something that she hasn’t lost is hope. “I’m optimistic – it’s just a slog.” One day she’d like to be on top of those mountains again. “And I want to have children, even though that is not imaginable right now.”
Natacha actually considers herself to be one of the lucky ones. How come? There’s a line about it in the song (one that chokes her dad up):
There’s people at my back
She means her family, her dad and Tom. “I can’t imagine how people survive if they are on their own or with young children or no partners. I was incredibly lucky to have people around me, to have the safety of their home, despite how horrible it has been.”
They are talking again about getting their own place. Natacha has a new job, which can be done remotely. Her employers are understanding and encouraging. She has told them that she might not be going back to work today and they’re fine with that. She does suddenly look tired, and pale, she’s speaking more slowly, her battery is visibly running down. Talking for two hours has taken it out of her. Talking, and singing. There’s a note of optimism at the end of the Long Covid Song:
So hear me sing
See me stand
Feel my hands
On the keyboard again
Cos I can sing
And I can stand
I put my hands
On the keyboard again.
 

Covid is back in Washington just in time for your summer vacation​

June 20, 2024 / 6:40 am

caption: As summer travel begins to spike, so does Covid cases across the United States. Unlike other respiratory viruses that surge in winter, like the flu and RSV, Covid has established a pattern of spiking in winter and summer, according to Dr. Helen Chu with UW Medicine. Seen here, a busy day at Ronald Reagan National Airport.

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As summer travel begins to spike, so does Covid cases across the United States. Unlike other respiratory viruses that surge in winter, like the flu and RSV, Covid has established a pattern of spiking in winter and summer, according to Dr. Helen Chu with UW Medicine. Seen here, a busy day at Ronald Reagan National Airport.
Tim Mossholder / Unsplash
As Covid continues to settle into everyday life, health experts are noticing it has certain patterns, and a few other changes from the first few years the virus struck.
Summer Covid is a thing. This is not what health officials expected from the virus. Sure, there's the common winter cold and flu season. Many expected Covid to align with that timing and join the other respiratory viruses, but it seems the pattern Covid has settled into is to spike during winter, and then again in summer, just as you get ready to go on vacation.
"For the first two years, I said, 'Oh ya know, this is just an anomaly.' But now as we head in to year three of this, it's clear that we are having summer Covid," Dr. Helen Chu with the University of Washington Medicine told Seattle Now.

"We are heading into a summer surge," she added. "If you remember from the last couple of years, there is a large winter surge, and then there is often a smaller, but still significant, surge in mid- to late-summer. So, we're heading into that now."
Officials began noticing Covid cases were on the rise in early June. Viral levels in wastewater, both nationally and in Washington state, were getting higher and higher. The CDC currently states the national level of Covid is "low," based on viral testing of wastewater. Chu reported that the viral levels are highest in the Northeast, Florida, and California, "but we're not far behind." As of early June, Washington state was trending slightly higher than the national average.

caption: Covid levels from testing wastewater in Washington state, up to June 8, 2024.

1 OF 3 Covid levels from testing wastewater in Washington state, up to June 8, 2024.
Centers for Disease Control
Chu said visits to emergency rooms for Covid have also been increasing in Washington. Covid hospitalizations are not up, but she noted those numbers usually lag behind the the other surges.
"As we head into summer travel season, you don't want to ruin your vacation. So, remember doing the things we did in the past — wearing a mask in crowded spaces, testing yourself if you're symptomatic if you are gathering with loved ones, especially those who are more vulnerable," she said.
Looking at Washington's Covid dashboard, the surge in Covid cases heading into summer 2024 is not nearly as severe as the spikes during the pandemic era. Still, Chus said it's worth noting for those who are more vulnerable — immunocompromised people and older adults. Chu stressed that such groups should keep up-to-date on their Covid booster shots. While the Covid booster vaccine expected in the fall is designed for the current strain causing the spike in cases (JN1), vulnerable groups should be boosted as soon as possible.

Summer surges are just one aspect of Covid that health experts are beginning to notice, though Chu expects that it will continue to evolve.
There are some changes to the illness in 2024 that stray from previous seasons.
"One thing that is a little bit different than we've seen over the last few years, is that the number of people reporting loss of sense of taste or smell is decreasing," Chu said. "Also, the proportions of people developing long Covid after their infections is going down."
"It tells us that we are not at a steady state with this virus yet," she added. "Right now, we're still learning how to interact with it, how our immune systems are responding to it, and whether or not the population as a whole just doesn't have long-lasting immunity that gets us through until the next season. So, we're seeing these little surges that are happening every summer. It may take much longer to get to a state where we see Covid turn into a normal seasonal respiratory virus like flu or RSV."
 

Marsha Blackburn Warns Of COVID’s Lingering Effects On Labor: We ‘Have A Workplace Shortage’​


 

COVID summer surge​


 

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