Dr. Shahiduzzaman: in order to change India’s habitual perception, our only answer as I feel is nuclearization.

[AjayGhatak]

If you use the strategem of Chanakya, the chief millitary adviser of Chandragupta Maurya. Then countries sourround a center power in layers of «cocentric ring».
According to this layering if youre the center power(layer 0): India, you support Afghanistan (a land in the 2nd layer) to put pressure on on a land in the 1st Layer: Pakistan.

So in BDs’ case India would use Myanmar to put pressure on Bangladesh.

But the main issue for India is that Afghanistan is under heavy Pakistan influence, plus they are essentially divided by a artificial border. So that didnt work and India was kicked out when Americans left Afghanistan.

In BD’s case, Myanmar also cant be used against BD because Myanmar is under heavy Chinese influence.

Which means India is Strategically isolated in the terrestrial domain.

Another interesting thing is that according to the same Model of Chanakya, Pakistan and Bangladesh is eachothers 2nd Layer countries.

Thing is, both Mayanmar and Afghanistan are antagonists to Bangladesh and Pakistan respectively. While neither countries will strictly follow India, given a chance to acquire leverage over Bangladesh and Pakistan respectively, they will take it with open arms.

 

[hyperman]

I mean if B'desh has to take refuge from India, it would rather choose China or USA. Depending upon who is in power in Bangladesh.

Its not an either or.

The US doesn't make sense, b/c its an extraregional party, i.e. there are no vested interests to permanently stay in alignment due to geography, those elements also change when it tries to court India against Pakistan and prioritizes India above Pakistan, regardless of the cold war relations. Pakistan learned this the hard way. Similarly there is no innate reason for them to pick Bangladesh over India, their interests in the region are via a vis China. Thats the lens/axiom from which the US functions in the region, especially post war on terror era.

 

[AjayGhatak]

The US doesn't make sense, b/c its an extraregional party, i.e. there are no vested interests to permanently stay in alignment due to geography, those elements also change when it tries to court India against Pakistan and prioritizes India above Pakistan, regardless of the cold war relations. Pakistan learned this the hard way. Similarly there is no innate reason for them to pick Bangladesh over India, their interests in the region are via a vis China. Thats the lens/axiom from which the US functions in the region, especially post war on terror era.

US is a world level player with bases in all corners of the world. It has interests in each and every damn place. Otherwise, why will they poke their nose in Afghanistan and Vietnam of all places?

As far as this region goes, Bay of Bengal is pretty stretegic. It allows choking of Malacca Strait. With its presence near horn of Africa (Djibouti), US can control supply lines of China if it has control of Malacca Strait too.

So yeah, I can see US being very interested in this region and it is not impossible that they will try to get Bangladesh in their sphere fully.

If that happens, Bangladesh can kiss any other military alliances good bye. That will not happen. But then if Bangladeshis are clever enough, they can get enough investment and industrialisation to become a middle income country much much faster than India.

Being US allie is fatal only if your country is stupid.

 

[SteppeWolff]

Thing is, both Mayanmar and Afghanistan are antagonists to Bangladesh and Pakistan respectively. While neither countries will strictly follow India, given a chance to acquire leverage over Bangladesh and Pakistan respectively, they will take it with open arms.

Pakistanis and Afghans are interwined in many ways, stop commenting about Af-Pak as if you know anything.
And what is your bullshit of giving Nukes to the Talibs lmfao . Most of the planet doesn't even recognize Talibs, you think you can share Nukes with such an entity? Stop having wet dreams on an online forum dawg.

 

[AjayGhatak]

Pakistanis and Afghans are interwined in many ways, stop commenting about Af-Pak as if you know anything.
And what is your bullshit of giving Nukes to the Talibs lmfao . Most of the planet doesn't even recognize Talibs, you think you can share Nukes with such an entity? Stop having wet dreams on an online forum dawg.

Give a real reason what will stop India from giving Talibs nukes if Pakistan gives Bangladeshi nukes. A real reason not a wishy washy one.

 

[Pataliputra]

Complete delusion if you think there isn't a second strike option. We saw what happened with the "Surgical Strike". lol, you don't seem to understand how second strike capability works.

There is no possibility of a second strike once Pakistan launches a nuclear missile against India. Not only will the missile be neutralized, but all of Pakistan’s nuclear installations will also be taken out by the Indian military. The entry of 12 Mirage-2000s, escorted by 4 Su-30 MKIs and drones, deep into Pakistani territory to bomb Balakot and return undetected has proven that Pakistan has no credible nuclear deterrence against India. Even the Indian MiG-21 that was downed the next day was inside Pakistani airspace and also managed to down a Pakistani F-16.
The Kargil War is the perfect example of Musharraf’s delusion that the myth of nuclear deterrence would stop India from bombing Pakistani positions and retaking the Kargil heights. In reality, Pakistan had to request U.S. intervention to protect itself from the advancing Indian military, fearing that India would escalate the conflict further.

 

[Pataliputra]

Economy doesn’t matter when it comes to the fear of a mutually assured destruction and deterrence. Also stick to more professional commentary because y’all have become champions of racist stereotypes

You've assumed from watching Pakistani media that both India and Pakistan can annihilate each other using nukes, but that’s not true in reality. India will neutralize all of Pakistan's nuclear installations, which is why India maintains a policy of no use of nuclear weapons against Pakistan, even if Pakistan tries to use them. Pakistan doesn’t have a credible nuclear deterrence against India. Instead, India would eliminate all nuclear sites and invade Pakistan, much like in 1971, using conventional forces.
The Kargil War is the perfect example of Musharraf’s delusion that the myth of nuclear deterrence would stop India from bombing Pakistani positions and retaking the Kargil heights. In reality, Pakistan had to request U.S. intervention to protect itself from the advancing Indian military, fearing that India would escalate the conflict further.

 

[Michael Corleone]

NATO also has MASSIVE trade going on between its partners. Besides NATO was a result of fear of communism. USA was afraid of spread of communism in Europe there by bringing communism and communist military threat to its own shores.

Do Bangladesh and Pakistan have any major trade?

What does Pakistan gain in this scenario? What kind of increased security it gains for making so much expense? India is already sitting on its throat because they share border. Nothing will change there.

If there is nothing to be gained then Pakistan will not keep its word by attacking India with nukes if India attacks Bangladesh.

Look into recent developments after hasina’s downfall. That should answer your questions on bilateral trade and as for a threat similar to communism, look no further than the dream of a akhand bharat

 

[Michael Corleone]

Before you start talking big about India, you might want to take a hard look at what’s happening in your own backyard. Bangladesh is in the middle of an economic storm, with foreign reserves dropping below $20 billion when they used to be over $40 billion not too long ago. Inflation is crushing the average person, your government had to turn to the IMF for a $4.7 billion bailout just to stay afloat, and you’re now looking at rationing fuel because of power cuts. Even your prized garment sector is seeing a dip in demand thanks to the political crisis in Bangladesh.

As for your 'China field day' comment, India is securing its borders in the Northeast with better infrastructure, forward deployments, and active patrolling. And if things heat up, the Indian military has the capability to make life very difficult for any invader. We’ve fought tougher battles in much harsher terrains, like Siachen and Kargil.

So instead of dreaming about India's problems, maybe focus on the looming debt trap Bangladesh is falling into. If you don’t sort things out, you’ll end up losing more than just face. Don’t punch above your weight, because right now, you’re barely hanging on. Stick to fixing your economy and leave regional geopolitics to the big boys.

Speaking of economy. It’s recovering swiftly after hasina left. Our national debt is 99bln. She stole 93 bln dollars in 15 years. After her fall the inflation has been the lowest in last 11 years, foreign reserves recovering within a month and already over 20 bln.

There isn’t a fuel shortage, price have been lowered after hasina left. As for garments sector, no orders have been cancelled.

India has no success defending against Chinese aggression since its inception. No need to talk about bd economy when your source is Indian propaganda.

 

[Michael Corleone]

So Bangladesh mutually assured destruction fear will be so great for Pakistan that it would risk a nuclear retaliation on itself by providing a nuclear umbrella to a lungi land?

Yes exactly because fall of Bangladesh means the forces deployed to protect chickens neck and surrounding region can be easily deployed to Pakistan border increasing their own risk of existence.
I know it’s hard to comprehend with a brain running on uric acid from cow piss so try to stay sober and then respond professionally

 

[Michael Corleone]

Really? Pakistan is not even in top 10 of your trading partners...
Source : https://bbs.portal.gov.bd/sites/def...12-07-34-e579cd4a68742f5c4e7184120cb9d08b.pdf



You know... Your export to Pakistan is not even 100 million dollars?

You’re using data from the past to judge the present?

 

[Michael Corleone]

Pakistan’s economy is in shambles—defaulting, begging for loans, and barely keeping its lights on. If that's your benchmark, then congrats, you’re teaming up with another sinking ship. But you know what’s funny? You boast about a few million dollars’ worth of trade with Pakistan but it’s hardly a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Meanwhile, trade with India is crucial for Bangladesh. If India decided to stop exports tomorrow, you’d be in serious trouble.

India’s trade with Bangladesh is insignificant when you look at the bigger picture. India’s economy is close to hitting $4 trillion, and trade with Bangladesh makes up a fraction of that. In 2023, India-Bangladesh bilateral trade was around $18 billion, peanuts for us but critical for you. For Bangladesh, India is one of the biggest sources for essentials—whether it's raw materials, pharmaceuticals, or critical infrastructure equipment. If India were to cut off supplies tomorrow, Bangladesh would be in serious trouble. What about the devastating power crisis you’re facing? We export electricity to you. You think your economy can survive without Indian imports? Let’s not kid ourselves, your supply chain would collapse, leading to price hikes, shortages, and chaos.

When India halted exports of essential goods like onions in the past, what happened? Prices in Bangladesh skyrocketed, protests erupted, and your government was left scrambling to get emergency supplies. Now imagine if we cut off all critical exports—you’d be finished. Bangladesh doesn’t have the industrial or economic strength to become self-sufficient in these areas, so enjoy that ‘growing’ trade with Pakistan while you can. It's not going to fill the gap that India would leave behind.

And as for India, halting trade with Bangladesh doesn’t affect us at all. We’ve got trading partners like the US, Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia that dwarf Bangladesh in economic importance. Losing your market would be a drop in the ocean for India. Our economy is booming, with exports in high-tech, pharmaceuticals, and defense equipment reaching new heights every year. You? You’re still reliant on low-wage garment factories that are losing competitive edge. You can’t even keep up with your neighbors, and you’re worried about market research? Focus on surviving the coming economic storm instead of getting cocky about trade.

Honestly, I find it hilarious that you think losing a few billion in trade is going to hurt India. Bangladesh relies on India for everything from raw materials to food, power, and medicines. We don’t need you, but without India, your economy would face a crusading collapse. One small shift from India, and it’s game over for you.

None of Indian trade is critical for us. Most of that 18 billion ended up in your coffers anyways thanks to Hasina. Don’t forget the 6 billion in remittance that your people used to earn up until now, that’s legal estimates no one knows how much gets laundered into India. What infrastructure equipment are you talking about because I don’t recall the Chinese having to buy Indian stuff to make infrastructure in bd as for raw materials, India has already started lowering prices because new government is sourcing from alternative countries. Don’t even get me started on pharmaceuticals because we are self sufficient on that department with medicines cheaper than in India. You’re talking about power crisis? Then how come I’m running my AC 24 hrs a day without having a backup generator at my home? I’m not even gonna entertain you anymore because your source of information is the Indian media which is laughable.

You asked why collab with a sinking ship? Well purely for deterrence reasons, they have nuclear capability and we will in turn help their economy by trading with them. I know as an Indian it burns you for seeing yourselves lose influence in a country that your people belittles and sees as inferior but I guess cope harder

 

[Michael Corleone]

I have always maintained that REAL deterrance for Bangladesh is to develop its own bomb (crude or whatever) or buy few secretly from North Korea together with solid fueled MRBMs that they have. North Korea has the most advanced and well tested bombs out of all non-P5 states.

North Korea got their nuclear tech from Pakistan in exchange Pakistan got rocketry tech from them.

 

[Michael Corleone]

You've assumed from watching Pakistani media that both India and Pakistan can annihilate each other using nukes, but that’s not true in reality. India will neutralize all of Pakistan's nuclear installations, which is why India maintains a policy of no use of nuclear weapons against Pakistan, even if Pakistan tries to use them. Pakistan doesn’t have a credible nuclear deterrence against India. Instead, India would eliminate all nuclear sites and invade Pakistan, much like in 1971, using conventional forces.
The Kargil War is the perfect example of Musharraf’s delusion that the myth of nuclear deterrence would stop India from bombing Pakistani positions and retaking the Kargil heights. In reality, Pakistan had to request U.S. intervention to protect itself from the advancing Indian military, fearing that India would escalate the conflict further.

I stopped at watch Pakistani news. I don’t watch regional news channels at all

 

[Pingle]

I have always maintained that REAL deterrance for Bangladesh is to develop its own bomb (crude or whatever) or buy few secretly from North Korea together with solid fueled MRBMs that they have. North Korea has the most advanced and well tested bombs out of all non-P5 states.

This is the only option... This Nuclear Umbrella type Machoism suits only top tier countries like USA with economy and military to sustain any repercussions.... Not to 3rd world countries like Pakistan or India....