This is quite apart from the fact that going for a combo deal is a strange step: Article 232 assumes a provincial government overwhelmed by events, and leaves its assembly standing. Article 234 says the government itself cannot function constitutionally. It is hard to imagine both being true (and, in any event, neither is).
Plus, the unity regime is diving over guardrails it once built itself: the
Eighteenth Amendment requires a resolution of the province’s own assembly for an internal emergency. Failing that, each house of parliament must approve within 10 days. Zardari, who signed off on the original amendment once upon a time, has used the backdoor: at no point did the province consent.
Afridi’s ministry may have been displaced for now, but it cannot be ousted outright. That can only happen when he loses the legislature’s confidence: as a Supreme Court concurrence put it in
Pir Sabir Shah v. Federation in 1994, ‘The president, therefore, cannot dismiss the chief minister and the provincial cabinet in exercise of his power under Article 234.’
Afridi thus returns the second the proclamation of governor’s rule is lifted, per
Sabir Shah, along with his cabinet and assembly. As for ‘history remembering’, Sharif has his own party men to thank for securing such a verdict in 1994, that too against the Bhutto-Zardaris’ attempt at ouster.
A year after
Sabir Shah, when the same PPP
thought to remove chief minister Manzoor Wattoo in Punjab, it again ended in tears: Shehbaz Sharif, then leader of the opposition, even raised the alleged plot in the provincial assembly. The Lahore High Court ruled against the PPP’s power grab: to impose governor’s rule under Article 234, a ‘breakdown of constitutional machinery’ was a must. No such breakdown was in the offing then in Punjab, nor now in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
As for emergency, the test is even starker. Again, the ruling regime would know: in May 1998, the prime minister’s brother Nawaz Sharif had imposed
emergency under Article 232 and suspended fundamental rights under Article 233, right after Pakistan and India’s nuclear tests.
But Nawaz’s emergency was challenged in the Supreme Court by former president Farooq Leghari and one Imran Khan, described (in a strange echo of network television’s ongoing ban) as ‘chairman of a political party Tehrik-e-Insaf’. While the Court ruled in favour of emergency, it did so explicitly on the basis of ‘imminent danger of external aggression’.
Not least, it felt the government’s claims of lawlessness in Sindh and sectarian killings in Punjab didn’t count as actionable internal disturbances, and that Islamabad had no good reason to suspend fundamental rights. The Court struck down the suspension.
Compared to the present, context is also important. Under Article 232, Chief Justice Ajmal Mian held in
Leghari, ‘the existence of the nation itself is at stake’. In 1998, that meant mushroom clouds. In 2026, it means Sohail Afridi’s caravan meandering down from Peshawar.
The unity regime’s latest disaster is not only self-inflicted, it is also self-defeating. Back when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto dismissed the National Awami Party’s ministry in Balochistan in 1973, it was for reasons that rhymed with today’s: terror, disloyalty, and the backing of hostile powers. Yet the only thing Bhutto managed to destroy was his opposition. After Quetta fell, the NAP’s coalition in the frontier (led, in yet another irony, by Maulana Fazl’s father Mufti Mahmood) resigned in protest. A four-year insurgency followed in one province, and mayhem and murder in the other.
It turns out that displacing an elected government in a restive land has been tried before. The only way through, in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, is through greater representation, not less.
When Pakistan did prevail against insurgency in the previous round, it was because of a hard-won consensus between state and society. That consensus is fracturing. Emergency will be its accelerant.