FIFA World Cup 2026

[_Arabia_]

I'd say it's rather simplified to rely on the stats in certain contexts. xG is not a stat I like particularly because it renders defensive and goalkeeping ability meaningless.

xG could be high because a team has lots of on target shots but if every shot is from a difficult angle and/or easily charged down and/or well saved by a top keeper, xG will still be high but that team cannot overcome the opponent's defensive and goalkeeping skill.

I totally agree that the absence of Yamal and Williams was critical though. Spain need those two fully fit (or at least Yamal) and starting every game.

It is the best objective statistic that we have. Analysts are using it extensively on the highest level for a reason.

Spain had 35-40 shots on goal against Cape Verde. On any given day they would have easily won that game if not for historically bad finishing and one of the best goalkeeping performances in World Cup history.

Such results occur and it is part of the charm of football and sports in general.

That however does not change anything about Spain being reigning European champions, likely winning their group anyway and 1 of the 2 main favorites alongside France.

Anyway I think that you agree with my points. Same thing with Spain being a much, much superior team to Belgium which every objective metric also confirms. There is no comparison. Belgium has now had 2 pathetic performances against teams that they were favorites against. I would honestly not be shocked if they somehow could not defeat New Zealand who are one of the worst teams in their own right.

I'm not saying you weren't being factual, was I?

And am I wrong to state that everything looks great on paper? Or was I wrong that it is final results that matter?

By all rights, the recently completed Stanley Cup Final should have been between Colorado and Carolina. Colorado had the best record and stats in the league. Yet, they went home and Vegas went in their place. Vegas had to fight to make the playoffs.

Sure but that is exactly why I wrote that freak results do occur in sports. Football is no different - in fact such results tend to occur more often than in most other sports. Because it is usually much easier to sit deep and defend than to create and score at the highest level which the World Cup is.

What I am arguing against, which should be obvious, is that you cannot use 1 sole freak result to make any conclusions when we are talking about Spain of all teams with their pedigree, history, players, accomplishments, role as one of the 2 or 3 main favorites in this World Cup etc.

They also proved today that they are back in business. I have no doubt that they will be one of the favorites to win it if they do not suffer from any injuries to their key players. They have an insane squad depth and quality across the board (every position of the field) as well.

With the genius, creativity, goals, assists and dribbling (best dribbler in Europe and the world statistically) of Yamal.

BTW it seems like FIFA agrees with me. MoM was that Iranian goalkeeper who saved them 1 point despite Belgium playing with 1 man less for 1/3 of the game.

@Desert

Do you think that Egypt will defeat New Zealand tonight? Also I read that Salah and the manager are at odds with each other? Any truth to this rumor?

If the game ends in a draw all 4 teams will have 2 points before the last round.

We need as many Arab teams to advance as possible.

It would be amazing if we could get KSA, Egypt, Morocco etc. to advance. Jordan and Algeria would be great as well. Unfortunately I don't see Iraq making it as they had the misfortune to draw some of the toughest opponents. They are going to play France next for instance.

What is funny is that Qatar could advance by defeating Bosnia in the last game. I would not put it past them completely even though Bosnia eliminated Italy.

This World Cup enlargement has really made it much easier to advance from the group stage compared to when the World Cup had 32 teams. Back then it was a real achievement to advance from the group stage when only the 2 best teams in a group advanced.

When KSA advanced to the Round of 16 in 1994 (USA), there were 32 teams in total and only 2 Asian teams even qualified to the World Cup.

It was much harder not only to qualify to the World Cup in the first place but also to reach the Round of 16. There were practically no "weak" teams on paper like you have nowadays.

1994 FIFA World Cup qualification (AFC) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

1994 FIFA World Cup - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Now you are almost certain to qualify if you end 3rd in your group with just 3 points. Or even theoretically just with 2 points if you do not have a too big negative goal difference.

To put it into perspective - one of the worst KSA squads in recent history, can qualify to the knockout stages if we defeat Cape Verde.

Yet we had a far superior team and results IMO in Qatar 2022, and also managed to defeat Argentina (World Cup champions) one of the greatest results of any non-European/South American team in World Cup history.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Egypt will be playing New Zealand in the next 3-5 hours. By the start of that game, the Iranian players will already be back in their hotel in Tijuana and resting.

This is very similar to the 2022 World Cup where Iran enters the final game potentially just needing a point to qualify (TBD other results). All on the line against Egypt.

 

[ShapurII]

Egypt will be playing New Zealand in the next 3-5 hours. By the start of that game, the Iranian players will already be back in their hotel in Tijuana and resting.

This is very similar to the 2022 World Cup where Iran enters the final game potentially just needing a point to qualify (TBD other results). All on the line against Egypt.

We also have a chance to top the group if we defeat Egypt and Belgium doesn't score many goals against New Zealand.

Our defense line is still pretty messed up. I'm sure we can score against Egypt if we play offensively, but that will open up so many holes and spaces for Egypt to score as well.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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37 year old Shoja Khalizadeh had an incredible game, and dominated the box.

• Most defensive contributions (22)
• Most clearances (14)
• Most blocked shots (3)
• Most tackles made (4)
• Most duels won (9)

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Persian Gulf]

We also have a chance to top the group if we defeat Egypt and Belgium doesn't score many goals against New Zealand.

Our defense line is still pretty messed up. I'm sure we can score against Egypt if we play offensively, but that will open up so many holes and spaces for Egypt to score as well.

honestly I think our technical ability and defence is too weak to try to be attacking against a team that is reasonably good (like Egypt). we should adopt a similar strategy as we did against Belgium but only slightly more attacking. a draw could still get us through, so I expect we will be very conservative and look to convert 1-2 chances from set pieces or on the break.

but we will need to rotate, our players look exhausted. at least Ezatolahi came off early and got some rest.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[ShapurII]

honestly I think our technical ability and defence is too weak to try to be attacking against a team that is reasonably good (like Belgium). we should adopt a similar strategy as we did against Belgium but only slightly more attacking. a draw could still get us through, so I expect we will be very conservative and look to convert 1-2 chances from set pieces or on the break.

but we will need to rotate, our players look exhausted. at least Ezatolahi came off early and got some rest.

Our offense is pretty good. We miss talents like Ali Karimi, Karim Bagheri, Mahdavikia, Esteeli, Nekounam and others in the midfield.

For decades, Iran's strongest line was midfield. Under Carlos Queiroz, our strongest line became defense. And now our strongest line by far is our strikers. I personally think if we had Sardar Azmoun, Sardar and Taremi together would've crushed New Zealand.

 

[hasssanali8998]

Alireza Beiranvand wins match of the match

goalkeepers are the real heros of this wc lmao

 

[ShapurII]

I'm checking European channels on the match and love to see how butt-hurt some European analysts and commentators are.

 

[PakAl]

Then explain the 0-0 draw with Cabo Verde.

Spain dominated them, controlled the game but only could not finish it off. If they play again Spain will trash them. Cape Verne had only 29 passes in Spain half meanwhile Spain had 600 passes in Cape Verne half. This is why Spain won 4 - 0 against Saudis.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Our offense is pretty good. We miss talents like Ali Karimi, Karim Bagheri, Mahdavikia, Esteeli, Nekounam and others in the midfield.

For decades, Iran's strongest line was midfield. Under Carlos Queiroz, our strongest line became defense. And now our strongest line by far is our strikers. I personally think if we had Sardar Azmoun, Sardar and Taremi together would've crushed New Zealand.

Yeah, that's why a game like this suits us well.

Azmoun and Taremi have a good partnership, and Azmoun has more legs left than Taremi, but Azmoun fucked up in the past few months and only has himself to blame.

In the last game we should give that German-Iranian kid Dennis a shot. at least he has been playing in Europe and has match fitness. Ghayedi can also stretch tired Egyptian legs a lot in the final moments of the game. Jahanbakhsh was not good. Torabi and Mohammadi did OK on the left after they came on, but Ramin had a poor game on the right.

 

[ShapurII]

In the last game we should give that German-Iranian kid Dennis a shot. at least he has been playing in Europe and has match fitness.

Can he play in the last match against Egypt?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Can he play in the last match against Egypt?

yeah, why not? he's in the squad. Rouzbeh Cheshmi might be back from injury for that game too, which is really useful for some rotation in defence/midfield.

 

[Master Chief]

It is the best objective statistic that we have. Analysts are using it extensively on the highest level for a reason.

Spain had 35-40 shots on goal against Cape Verde. On any given day they would have easily won that game if not for historically bad finishing and one of the best goalkeeping performances in World Cup history.

"Bad finishing" takes due credit away from good defending. So this illustrates the exact flaw with xG I mentioned earlier.

35-40 shots, high xG...sure. But now tell me if every time Spain shot, was it the inherent weakness of their shot that resulted in no goal OR was it the striker being forced into an awkward angle/rushed shot/awkward physical position by an excellent defender that caused no goal to be scored?

xG doesn't make that distinction.

So Cape Verde may have defended excellently to force that draw (rather than Spain making errors in front of goal) and a brilliant defensive team is just as praiseworthy as a brilliant offensive team. In fact, brilliant defenses often win tournaments! Italy, Germany traditionally typify this approach to tournament football.

I do have my opinions on why Spain didn't win that match and I feel it was fundamentally due to unavailability of star players and heroic CV defending rather than any errors by Spain in front of goal. In other words, credit is due to Cape Verde!

Iran today were quite similar - they forced Belgium to scuff shots and/or not have a clear route to goal and their goalie did the rest.

Btw, xG for Spain in that game was 2.03 and for Belgium today was 1.82, which isn't a huge difference. Both games played out similarly even if one looks at just the stats.