From Russia with love? How Moscow amplifies India’s anti-Bangladesh disinformation campaign

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Emily Kohlman
Publish : 30 Sep 2024,

In the days after Bangladesh’s former prime minister Sheikh Hasina resigned following the government’s violent crackdown on student-led protests, Indian State Supporters – referring to accounts affiliated with India’s ruling party, the BJP, or are otherwise marked as supporters of pro-Indian nationalistic ideology – worked to amplify claims of anti-Hindu violence in the South Asian country. Now, this network’s disinformation strategy has pivoted to allege discrimination against Hindus in Bangladesh, particularly as it relates to the current flood disaster. Indian disinformation related to the flooding includes claims that Bangladeshi Hindus are being denied access to flood relief materials and that the flood is emblematic of nature punishing Bangladesh for its anti-Hindu violence.

Current tensions between India and Bangladesh, combined with deadly flooding, created a social media environment primed for the spread of misinformation. This led to the widespread circulation of the narrative that India deliberately opened the Dumbur Dam to flood Bangladesh without warning. India has denied this, asserting that heavy monsoon rains exacerbated the floods, and the resulting power outages complicated India’s ability to sufficiently warn Bangladesh about the automatic release of water from the dam.

Indian State Supporters continue to drive existing narrative attacks by misrepresenting media to assert of anti-Hindu violence in Bangladesh. They appear to benefit from increased circulation by Russian State Supporters to extend the reach of various disinformation narratives – especially one claiming that the United States played a role in ousting Hasina and placing Muhammad Yunus in the position of chief adviser of Bangladesh in the interim government.

Narrative Attack 1: Anti-Hindu sentiment continues in Bangladesh as flood relief materials are being distributed only to Muslims and skipping over Hindus​

Indian State Supporters continued to leverage several disinformation tactics to launch narrative attacks, including inflating anti-Hindu violence by misrepresenting images and videos and using AI-generated or manipulated content and inflammatory language, such as referring to Muslims as “terrorists” and “jihadists.” Additional hashtags such as #HinduLivesMatter and #HindusUnderAttack are circulating and alleging anti-Hindu violence in other countries like Pakistan – indicating an effort to amplify assertions of a Hindu genocide more broadly across South Asia.

When the flooding in Bangladesh began, these pro-Indian voices continued amplifying claims of anti-Hindu sentiment across Bangladesh by asserting that flood relief materials were being distributed only to Muslims, purposefully avoiding Hindus. Claiming that aid was being diverted from areas with large Hindu populations, this network also appeared to use these allegations of discrimination against Hindus to implicate Yunus or even the US, suggesting an effort to undermine and delegitimize Bangladesh’s interim government.

Narrative Attack 2: Nature is punishing Bangladesh for its violence against Hindus​

Another narrative attack emerging from the Indian State Supporter network claimed that the flooding was a form of retribution for Bangladesh’s attacks on Hindus. Pro-India voices argued that God was upset and teaching Bangladesh a lesson, “Mother Nature” was punishing Bangladesh, and the flood was a great example of karma for violent actions against Hindus in Bangladesh. Some even implied that Bangladesh would have to suffer like Afghanistan and Pakistan have for perceived wrongdoings. Negative sentiment toward Pakistan in particular, has been a strategy in amplifying multiple narrative attacks stemming from Indian State Supporters. A smaller pro-Indian network attempted to further demonize Pakistan by alleging that the country sent Bangladesh flood relief materials but that Bangladesh was outraged that some of the items were expired. These claims regarding expired aid are unsubstantiated and likely attempted to downplay Pakistan’s efforts to supply aid to Bangladesh.

Narrative Attack 3: The United States and the CIA orchestrated a coup in Bangladesh, has been influential in Pakistani politics, and will instigate similar unrest in India and the broader region​

This narrative has been spreading since August 5. Still, pro-India engagement with it peaked just after August 8 when Yunus was sworn in and again across the first week of September in reaction to news of Yunus’s upcoming trip to the UN General Assembly in New York. While Indian State Supporters were the most significant cohort initiating and driving this narrative, Russian State Supporters were also involved – particularly in propagating disinformation promoted by Russian state media suggesting that the US was behind Hasina’s ousting. These conversations alleged that Russia warned Bangladesh in December 2023 that if the election results the following month did not “favor” the US, unrest and a coup would follow. Compass by Blackbird.AI provided additional context, confirming that there has been no evidence of this. Russian State Supporters were most active in discourse suggesting the involvement of the “deep state”/US in regime changes. Among Russian State Supporters in particular, anomalous activity was exceptionally high, indicating a highly coordinated effort in pro-Russian spaces to amplify the narrative that the US interfered not only in Bangladesh but also in Pakistan by ousting former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

On September 11, Indian State Supporters did not garner significant engagement. Still, Chinese State Supporters and Russian State Supporters did, suggesting that both pro-China and pro-Russia spaces likely capitalized on the opportunity to attempt to sow disinformation about the US after the September 10 US presidential debate.

Additionally, Indian State Supporters circulated a map of South Asia with borders drawn, expanding the territory of Bangladesh to include parts of India, Bhutan, and Myanmar, claiming that pro-US networks were sharing this image – seeking to prove that the US was behind Bangladesh’s regime change and would benefit from a geopolitical shift. Other pro-India discourse alleged that Bangladeshi students were using anti-India rhetoric to target the “Seven Sister States” – referring to the culturally diverse northeastern region of India – and that the US is actively working to incite radical Islamist threats and facilitate a situation that would pose an issue to India’s security.

The Way Forward​

Transitional periods and natural disasters both create opportunities for disinformation narratives to flourish. The network of Indian State Supporters driving narrative attacks during Bangladesh’s transitional period capitalized on the chance that the flooding disaster presented, playing on preconceptions and biases to spread disinformation. This cohort aimed to sow division further and contend that Bangladesh is a threat to Hindus and India, using allegations of relief efforts avoiding Hindus and asserting that the flood is retribution for Bangladesh’s anti-Hindu violence.

Narrative attacks stemming from Indian State Supporters benefited from additional amplification by Russian State Supporters, particularly when seeking to undermine Bangladesh’s interim government by suggesting that the US orchestrated Hasina’s ousting. Blackbird.AI’s tools are here to help navigate these complex environments by providing crucial context and analyzing where these disinformation narratives are coming from and how they are spreading.

Emily Kohlman is an Intelligence Analyst at Blackbird.AI. This article first appeared on Blackbird.AI and has been republished under special arrangement