Gaza-Israel Conflict | 2023-2024

Peregrine said:
I am sceptical too.
Just saying, Arabs wont do anything against Israel now as there is too much to loose because of Western backing of Israel.

But as always the geopolitical landscape is ever changing. If a opportunity would present itself, certainly Israel would be in trouble.

Has happened before, during the Outremer period when Salah Ad Din Ayuubi and Rukn Ad Din Baybars destroyed the Crusader States.
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Yup, this is true.
 
Peregrine said:
I am sceptical too.
Just saying, Arabs wont do anything against Israel now as there is too much to loose because of Western backing of Israel.

But as always the geopolitical landscape is ever changing. If a opportunity would present itself, certainly Israel would be in trouble.

Has happened before, during the Outremer period when Salah Ad Din Ayuubi and Rukn Ad Din Baybars destroyed the Crusader States.
Click to expand...


I have mentioned this a couple of times already but the Zionist occupation of Palestine was created and sustained through western dominance. First UK and then the USA.

Zionists are nothing more or less than modern day colonial settlers and once the balance of power on the planet changes within a generation , then the narrative that they are an anomaly in the ME will become mainstream around the world.
 
Aziqbal said:
now what will Hezbollah do next? this is a very serious escalation up the ladder

can the resistance not assassinate the israeli leaders like this? surely they have some intelligence ?
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No, Hezbollah is a small non-state actor without a navy, without an air-force, without billions of dollars of military aid and political support from a superpower, etc ...

There is a huge power asymmetry between Hezbollah (and Hamas etc) and Israel/USA. The way to offset that is via asymmetric and guerrilla warfare, but they cannot respond to targeted assassinations / drone strikes in the same way, it's simply not possible.

It is indeed a huge escalation, though, and Seyed Nasrallah previously promised a strong response to any Israeli assassinations in Lebanon, so we will for sure see a strong response by Hezbollah. Although to go to full war over this would be very stupid, and Hezbollah are not stupid like others, so they will try to respond in a calculated way that restores deterrence without escalating to a full war (which would entirely obliterate large parts of Lebanon, like we see Gaza being turned to dust, a fate no Lebanese wants).

Another constraining factor is the fact that so many Lebanese Christians celebrated this attack and they support Israel due to their hatred of Hezbollah. We even see in this thread a few pages back a vicious Zionist say how much he agrees with our resident vicious sectarian in their mutual hatred of Iran/Hezbollah.
 
Dalit said:
Absolutely. What should really be happening is that Arab masses should be inundating the streets in their respective countries. Irrespective of strict protest rules in those countries. Instead what we are seeing is a very soft response. People should be defying their leaders and holding them responsible. What we are witnessing is clearly insufficient and frankly pathetic.
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It is incredible that the Israeli Embassy in Jordan is still standing, especially considering 50% of people in Jordan are Palestinians ... If Palestinians themselves can't remove an Israeli Embassy in their heartland which they control, then there is no hope of wider Arab or Islamic solidarity and nor should they be able to expect such a thing.
 
UKBengali said:
I have mentioned this a couple of times already but the Zionist occupation of Palestine was created and sustained through western dominance. First UK and then the USA.

Zionists are nothing more or less than modern day colonial settlers and once the balance of power on the planet changes within a generation , then the narrative that they are an anomaly in the ME will become mainstream around the world.
Click to expand...

Its impossible to predict the future.
Still, if we take into account longetivity of Outremer, which was 90-130 years long. With Israel seemingly to no longer be able to win wars, and with its declining relative power against power center of Turkey, Gulf, Egypt and Iran. It may well be that Israel is history in mere 50 years into the future.
 
Persian Gulf said:
No, Hezbollah is a small non-state actor without a navy, without an air-force, without billions of dollars of military aid and political support from a superpower, etc ...

There is a huge power asymmetry between Hezbollah (and Hamas etc) and Israel/USA. The way to offset that is via asymmetric and guerrilla warfare, but they cannot respond to targeted assassinations / drone strikes in the same way, it's simply not possible.

It is indeed a huge escalation, though, and Seyed Nasrallah previously promised a strong response to any Israeli assassinations in Lebanon, so we will for sure see a strong response by Hezbollah. Although to go to full war over this would be very stupid, and Hezbollah are not stupid like others, so they will try to respond in a calculated way that restores deterrence without escalating to a full war (which would entirely obliterate large parts of Lebanon, like we see Gaza being turned to dust, a fate no Lebanese wants).

Another constraining factor is the fact that so many Lebanese Christians celebrated this attack and they support Israel due to their hatred of Hezbollah.
Click to expand...



I totally agree with your post.

What do you think a proportionate response could be that would restore deterrence?

They obviously cannot assasinate any top Zionist leaders and are already engaged in small scale skirmishes on the border.
 
Peregrine said:
With Israel seemingly to no longer be able to win wars, and with its declining relative power against power center of Turkey, Gulf, Egypt and Iran. It may well be that Israel willbe history in mere 50 years into the future.
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Turkey = NATO member with full economic and diplomatic relations with Israel

Persian Gulf states = US vassals with almost full economic and diplomatic relations with Israel (some behind the scenes, most now out in open, with many even hosting Israeli Embassies)

Egypt = don't make me laugh
 
UKBengali said:
I totally agree with your post.

What do you think a proportionate response could be that would restore deterrence?

They obviously cannot assasinate any top Zionist leaders and are already engaged in small scale skirmishes on the border.
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It's very difficult for a guerrilla movement to restore deterrence against a much stronger power. Especially since Hezbollah usually tries to avoid targeting civilians or resorting to illegal means of warfare that the Zionists use (e.g. cluster munitions in HUGE numbers, white phosphorus, etc). Their best hope is to extract a clear cost from Israel. Intelligently to prevent major escalation, perhaps by targeting Israel's offshore gas facilities - extract a cost without a big loss of life which would tip them into full war.
 
Already the lies are starting. It's to give Hezbollah and Iran a way down the escalation ladder. They will say Israel acted independently against US will and therefore we don't need to respond as it's in the interest of the US, lol. Anyone who believes they don't inform the US is delusional or playing along with the script.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1742265551399907609
 
BHAN85 said:
Even if someone words were definitive, that means nothing without a right trusted source and it's pure speculation, no need to say.
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Words have meanings that are defined for a reason, that's all. I appreciate the clarification, again.
 
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