Gaza-Israel Conflict | 2023-2024

[PakFactor]

Looking at Israeli sites, talks of conquering, occupying and annexing Lebanon up to Litani River are happening. That land is not only strategic depth but also fertile. Israel has been eying that for a long time. And contrary to what someone said above, Israelis were forced to leave south Lebanon. They don't leave any land except for the Sinai but that was too much to swallow. They are not even leaving tiny Sheba Farms.

Israel occupied Southern Lebanon for 18 years; with minor skirmishes without much losses.

For Israel, the Litani River is key as it will create a natural northern border. That's why they are eyeing it.

This is a very difficult time for the region. Israel's Northen military commander has proposed setting up a "buffer" zone in parts of southern Lebanon to "secure" northern Israel.

This "buffer zone" is just another fancy term for annexation of land belonging to a neighbouring sovereign nation.

The Jordanian's should see this as a massive red flag for things to come if they have any sense.

Everyone knew it was coming; to say otherwise was foolish thinking.

The Jordanians don't have any sense, they've lost long ago, its only a matter of time when Israel chooses to gobble them up.

 

[RescueRanger]

Israel occupied Southern Lebanon for 18 years; with minor skirmishes without much losses.

For Israel, the Litani River is key as it will create a natural riverway on its northern border. That's why they are eyeing it.



Everyone knew it was coming; to say otherwise was foolish thinking.

The Jordanians don't have any sense, they've lost long ago, its only a matter of time when Israel chooses to gobble them up.

Valid.

 

[r3alist]

You keep under estimating Israelis' attachment to Israel. Friend: It is not good to draw such conclusions because it feels good. Yes, there is a lot more Palestinian attachment and legitimacy to Palestine but Israelis are not all recent arrivals. Many will flee but many more would stay. They have been living their for generations and even gave up good fertile safe abodes in Europe and America to come to Israel. They will fight to the bitter end and I don't rule out even using nukes.

Well said.


Herzog says here all options are on the table

There are plenty of oriental Jews who have never stepped foot out of Israel, they are of the region in general

 

[Meengla]

i don't think an all-out war is likely at this point.

It would be sub-optimal for Hezbollah to engage now, without knowing how much and how deep the compromise was. You don't expect a conventional war between Hezbollah or Lebanon against Israel, because they will lose big, and intelligence/counter-intelligence is primal in any irregular warfare. The Pager and Icom thing shook that aspect for Hezbollah to the core,

I don't think you have been following this conflict well. Hezbollah didn't want, doesn't want, will not want an all out war. It is Israel which has been wanting it for a long time but in such a way that Americans would get dragged in.

Israel occupied Southern Lebanon for 18 years; with minor skirmishes without much losses.

Ahh, so Israel left prime, fertile, land which also provided strategic depth out of goodness of its heart? They were driven out because, even if there was not a lot of bloodshed, Hezbollah was forming into a formidable force those years. Israelis are VERY casualty aware! I think they want to first totally absorb the West Bank and then focus on other places. The knew that until that's done, no point bleeding men and material in south Lebanon or even Gaza those years.

 

[PakFactor]

Valid.

I mentioned during the Iranian strike in that thread that the regional actors should draw Israel into the Golan Heights and have a shoot out there in the open. It's a vast geographical land with fewer small scattered villages than Israel's mainland. It would have been easier to infiltrate and strike via rockets, ballistic missiles, and artillery. At that time, I also mentioned the Golan Heights contains a lot of production facilities for Israeli manufacturers.

 

[PakFactor]

I don't think you have been following this conflict well. Hezbollah didn't want, doesn't want, will not want an all out war. It is Israel which has been wanting it for a long time but in such a way that Americans would get dragged in.



Ahh, so Israel left prime, fertile, land which also provided strategic depth out of goodness of its heart? They were driven out because, even if there was not a lot of bloodshed, Hezbollah was forming into a formidable force those years. Israelis are VERY casualty aware! I think they want to first totally absorb the West Bank and then focus on other places. The knew that until that's done, no point bleeding men and material in south Lebanon or even Gaza those years.

That's a possibility, and Camp David Acords did half the work of setting up the West Bank to be cut down and absorbed over time.

But do know the French play protector of Lebanon due to its sizable Christian population and Francophobia population. It had a hand in the UN resolution.

 

[Aziqbal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1837852942356910470

May Allah send them his help

I hope and pray Hezbollah recovers from the last few days of attacks

Israel has gone in hard and they have lost a lot of good men

For sure man to man Israel doesn’t stand a chance

 

[Persian Gulf]

i don't think an all-out war is likely at this point.

It would be sub-optimal for Hezbollah to engage now, without knowing how much and how deep the compromise was. You don't expect a conventional war between Hezbollah or Lebanon against Israel, because they will lose big, and intelligence/counter-intelligence is primal in any irregular warfare. The Pager and Icom thing shook that aspect for Hezbollah to the core,

I personally would disengage if my organisation were compromised like that, effectively there are no comm (or trustable comm) and there are no counterintelligence aspect for Hezbollah, frankly, they don't know which phone they can use and who they can trust at this moment. The assassination and the pager thing is very clearly a one two punch from the IDF, there are NO WAY Hezbollah Comm and/or C4 structure wasn't compromised.

You need to at least wait until you can rebuild your comm network, then there are a realistic chance to fight, and that could be years.

I disagree. only c. 3000 new pagers (likely from same shipment) were compromised. old pagers were not impacted. Hezbollah has 100,000 members.

 

[StormOfTruth]

The major operations carried out by the Palestinian resistance groups on Saturday, September 21, are as follows:
Al-Qassam Brigades’ operations:

• Targeted two buildings where a number of Israeli soldiers were holed up with four anti-personnel and anti-fortification shells, east of the Al-Tanour neighborhood in Rafah city in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Targeted a D9 military bulldozer with a Yassin-105 shell east of the Al-Tanour neighborhood in Rafah city, southern Gaza Strip.

Al-Quds Brigades’ operations :

• Engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli infantry force using appropriate weapons in Wadi Ezz al-Din, Jenin, occupied West Bank.
• Engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces on the axes of Khallet al-Sawha, al-Bayader, the eastern neighborhood, and Wadi Ezz al-Din in Jenin, occupied West Bank.
• Engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces storming the Khallet Al-Suha neighborhood in Jenin, occupied West Bank.

 

[BHAN85]

Hezbollah beeper blasts: Timing not due to plan being exposed, sources say - exclusive

The Jerusalem Post has exclusively learned that whoever caused the sabotage did not pick the timing because of a sudden discovery by Hezbollah.

www.jpost.com

This confirm pagers explosions were a deliberate provocation to happen NOW, when they want to move war to north.

 

[j_hungary]

I don't think you have been following this conflict well. Hezbollah didn't want, doesn't want, will not want an all out war. It is Israel which has been wanting it for a long time but in such a way that Americans would get dragged in.

I think I said multiple time , even before the IDF operation in Gaza begin that Hezbollah does not want an engagement with Israel. And it takes a lot more than just thousands of rocket to go to war with Israel. And whoever cross the line first probably loses.

 

[j_hungary]

I disagree. only c. 3000 new pagers (likely from same shipment) were compromised. old pagers were not impacted. Hezbollah has 100,000 members.

It's not the number of pager affected, but question like

How long ago the comm network was compromised?

Was there anything other than Comm network that had been compromised?

Did the IDF did anything to the Comm network other than the pager or explosive?

How extensive the effect was and etc

In the field of intelligence, anonymity is key, I don't show you my hand unless I need to, so you don't know my capability. And when you enemy is doing the opposite, then you need to think about why they are showing your hand now, because that's actually more dangerous than not showing you anything, because they are showing you what they can done without. The pager thing is a "Throw Away" they can do without, by exposing to you they can do this. And if they throw away that capability without losing a heartbeat, then you need to think, real hard, real deep, what they have on you and you don't know.

The alternative is IDF is just a giant moron and throw away their trump card and that's the best they can do, well, if you are comfortable to believe this is the case., then I don't have anything more to say.

 

[Persian Gulf]

It's not the number of pager affected, but question like

How long ago the comm network was compromised?

since they know it was only latest batch of 3000 pages imported 5 months ago that's quite easy to isolate

Was there anything other than Comm network that had been compromised?

this is a bigger problem I agree

The pager thing is a "Throw Away" they can do without, by exposing to you they can do this. And if they throw away that capability without losing a heartbeat, then you need to think, real hard, real deep, what they have on you and you don't know.

The alternative is IDF is just a giant moron and throw away their trump card and that's the best they can do, well, if you are comfortable to believe this is the case., then I don't have anything more to say.

there were some reports that Hezbollah was about to identify the sabotage so they had to rush it. impossible for us to say but it would not surprise me if Israel had more surprises in store

 

[Cash gk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1837679205087433163

 

[j_hungary]

since they know it was only latest batch of 3000 pages imported 5 months ago that's quite easy to isolate

But then how do you know only c3000 or the new one is affected? Without knowing where the capability lead and how long ago it has started.

They show that to you by exploding 3000 pagers, that does not mean it's only that 3000 pager, in fact, the very next day they exploded some 300 (or 500, I don't remember) ICOM walkie. That show you not just one thing was compromised.

I mean sure ,if you did a full count, and make sure it just the last 5 months, but can you be sure now that it just affect the new stuff?

this is a bigger problem I agree


there were some reports that Hezbollah was about to identify the sabotage, so they had to rush it. impossible for us to say but it would not surprise me if Israel had more surprises in store

As I said, when they show you what they can do, that is the exact time you need to pay attention, because they burn that by showing you they can do that, so for them, it's not that important enough to hold on to that, so they show you they can do that.

Can they do something else? That depends on how vigilant you are