wow, what happened to you? (your opinions are usually spot on but this one, smh)
People who were on the fence about joining "the cause" that will use Nasrallah's death as motivation to push Hezbollah's plans and agendas forward.
You think its a coincidence that resistance attacks and impact in the region and world increased considerably after Soleimani died? you think Soleimani's (and Abu Mohandes too)death had nothing to do with the resistance's rejuvenation in the region? Offcourse it did. Mullah Omar and Mullah Mansur both died while leading the Taliban, but they were replaced and the Taliban ended up winning the war against NATO- and the Taliban is far from Iran in capabilities.
The reason Israel has killed more people in Lebanon in a week than Hezbollah killed all year is because they think calmly and logically instead of emotionally as we do.
So let's clear some things up first.
The Taliban did not 'win' in Afghanistan. the US withdrew voluntarily. The US has the ability, even without going nuclear, to flatten Afghanistan and to kill every Taliban leader, but the US is constrained by public opinion, both globally and domestically. That is the only reason they left, no one chased them out.
Please believe me when I tell you that the kind of technology the US possesses is decades ahead of anything anyone else has, except China, and Israel has access to almost everything the US has, plus their own. I am not just talking about massive bombs, but precision microdrones, nanotechnology, biotechnology. The US knows exactly where anyone of interest is at any given time.
So, coming to Israel, when they killed a number of Iranian proxy leaders in Lebanon and Tehran itself, and killed the Iranian President himself (yes, I believe it was an Israeli operation), then Iran should have retaliated in kind. When it failed to do so, then Israel knew that a) Iran lacked the ability, and b) Iran could not afford to escalate on that ladder because it knew its own security apparatus was compromised. This gave Israel the green light to continue those hits.
Looking at how people learn and adapt, we see again that israel learns from its mistakes and doesn't repeat them. The same cannot be said of the other side. After the 2006 Israeli raids on Lebanon, anyone with half a brain would have made it a top priority to install SAM systems throughout South Lebanon. It did not happen and we saw the results this week. Many emotional people may join the cause to embrace martyrdom but smart people will think twice because the leadership has shown themselves to be incompetent.
The point of war, as they say, is not to die for your country but to make the other guy die for his.
Finally, I don't want to put the blame and responsibility on Iran alone. It is commendable that Iran has taken up the fight where the rest of the Muslim world has failed, but it cannot fight the combined financial, technological, and military might of the Western world. There is much that Pakistan could have done given its close access to Chinese tech, especially in the area of SAMs to protect Lebanon, but Pakistani generals will never do anything that can harm their investments and retirement plans in the West or GCC.
As I wrote above and in earlier posts, the battle of technology is only going to get worse, and it doesn't look good for our side. There is nanotechnology in development that will make 99% of current security setup obsolete.
