How American strategy of ‘colour revolutions’ teaches third-world democracies a lesson

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Sagorika Sinha

Firstpost - August 18, 2024

Being the world’s only superpower came with the burden of responsibility, or so the US claimed while policing its worldwide domain. Over the last decade, as information escaped its little analogue nooks more speedily and diffused its implications across the world, the American deep state lost its shadowiness.
While much of Europe, understandably, and the US, out of nostalgia and habit, refuse to give up on their anti-Russia rhetoric, democracies have especially borne the weight of American heavy-handedness. At the same time, apart from Donald Trump’s rather ineffective trade war with China, the Democrat establishment that replaced him has not only not penalised Xi Jinping’s authoritarian regime after the Wuhan crisis but, as investigations have shown, helped cover up the nation’s involvement at the cost of American lives.
There has been a word here and a condescension there, but the largest international threat to American hegemony has been treated like a well-tolerated competitive younger brother. China’s rule-breaking works fine as long as western trade dependency remains, as well as until establishment corruption and collusion are inbuilt into the State Department. It is telling that its famous mouthpiece, the Washington Post, recently found that its foreign affairs columnist, Max Boot, is married to a Chinese spy. More, the now-arrested agent, Sue Mi Terry, is a former CIA analyst.
America’s distracted foreign policy kept busy through its constantly churning war machine, and Chinese influence makes too much of India’s necessary and historically relevant closeness to Russia. On the other hand, a few words of concern suffice for a much more globally relevant dragon-bear bond. At the same time, India’s neighbouring democracy, Bangladesh, was constantly harangued at the cost of its peace, with a constant threat of regime change, which was recently executed.
The US’s engagement with anti-government agencies that foment protest is technically the opposite of diplomacy. Global diplomacy standards depend on countries engaging with legitimate governments regardless of the diplomat’s policy preferences. The idea is to build bridges and not posture as a threat. It is why, despite a terrorist government in Afghanistan and the military rule in Myanmar, India’s dealings are with the current governments in power, not those India wishes there.
To an audience consuming content uncritically from CIA-influenced publications, “civil society” reads like an acceptable authority to deal with. Except in democracies, civil societies have literally gone out and voted to choose the government in place. Only, it is a government that the US does not like and one that it will leave no stone unturned to overthrow and replace with a puppet regime. Clearly, that has not worked out well for Ukraine, Afghanistan, or Iran.
None of the moral principles are applicable to the most exceptionalist country in the modern world. The US’ diplomatic personnel consistently pushed to engage with the opposition in India and Bangladesh. Now that the elected Hasina government has been overthrown, it is a Clinton-friendly American man at the helm of Bangladeshi affairs. Mohammed Yunus has been previously indicted in a case where he is accused of embezzling crores of rupees in a nation where the common man struggles to make thousands. Norwegian authorities have also suggested financial fraud through his Grameen Telecom which partners with Norwegian carrier Telenor. He is, however, embellished with a Nobel Prize.
At the same time, Hasina’s pushback against Chinese ambitions in her nation meant that China had vested interests in seeing a different government in power. As Prime Minister, she had refused to allow China to build the Sonadia deep-sea port. Instead, she invited the Japanese to fund one near Chittagong. This is not to say that Bangladesh’s trade or defence partnerships with China suffered during Hasina’s time. However, China maintains a close relationship with the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), and the Jamaat-e-Islami student groups are helped along by their client state of Pakistan.
Similar to their actions in the Maldives, they funded an “India Out” campaign in Bangladesh, garnering success by labelling all Awami League supporters as well as any minority Hindus as “traitors” for India. JeI is a group that violently opposed Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan and has routinely engaged in heinous crimes against minorities. Unsurprisingly, after the coup, their student groups carried out the desecration of monuments pertaining to Bangladesh’s independence and have broken the statues memorialising the surrender of Pakistan to India as they allowed Bangladesh to separate after years of neglect and violence against the Bengali people.
This volatile background had left the Awami League-led Bangladesh isolated from the US, impacting its trade and further increasing its dependence upon China. At the same time, American haranguing and blockading against Hasina’s party ensured that the extremely radicalised and undisguised Islamic Sharia favouring BNP and JeI were emboldened to throw the nation into chaos. Now that they succeeded in overthrowing Hasina’s elected government, Hindus undergo further ethnic cleansing in a repeat of the horrors of the 1971 genocide. American enablers believe these lives are of little significance in establishing control of the region. So far, there has been little comment on the situation, with the White House merely stating that they will “monitor” the situation, similar to their inaction as the Yazidis and the Hazaras have been wiped out from their lands.
With a third front opening up against India, a China-supported BNP and an ISI-supported JeI, India is left with regional instability in a hostile region. The Narendra Modi-led government has shown extreme disinterest in interventionist foreign policy, unlike earlier governments that offered military support to neighbouring nations or participated in intelligence operations to favour particular governments. It has acted in manners that are exactly contradictory to how the US State Department acts, and for all its composure and conservativeness, is left as the sole politically stable democracy in a region where Communist and military autocracy are the norm.
The subversion of democracy is an American addiction. It is not to say that the citizens whose democracies are subverted did not have legitimate grievances prior to foreign influence. However, US-assisted “Colour Revolutions” and military ousters have left every such country worse off, with any economic growth decimated, media censored, and dictatorships or puppet regimes favoured over the triumph of an actual civil society. Perhaps Bangladesh is a lesson. History rarely teaches those who do not intend to learn, though.
 
If this was a CIA instigated color revolution in Bangladesh then it has the potential to spread to India and Pakistan as the Americans do not do these in one country but over several. There have been reports that protesters in Pakistan and India have received inspiration from the events in Bangladesh which is already being dubbed the Monsoon Revolution ...
 
It is said by BNP that Hasina was installed in power by USA.
 
It is said by BNP that Hasina was installed in power by USA.
They are certainly not wrong about that and the 1/11 takeover was backed by the USA, India and the UK. The USA had for the last 15 years submitted to protecting Indian interests in the region as long as India was prepared to counter China more aggressively but Modi was not interested in this so the USA has no broken from Delhi and now brought down the Hasina regime for its own strategic interests.
 
They are certainly not wrong about that and the 1/11 takeover was backed by the USA, India and the UK. The USA had for the last 15 years submitted to protecting Indian interests in the region as long as India was prepared to counter China more aggressively but Modi was not interested in this so the USA has no broken from Delhi and now brought down the Hasina regime for its own strategic interests.
History tells us that, regime changes affected by US have left the countries totally crippled.

Iraq, Libya, Syria are few examples

Also it was foolish to expect India to become Ukraine against China
 
Bangladesh unrest signals troubling headwinds for Global South

Chietigj Bajpaee

The year of elections has claimed its first casualty. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who was re-elected for her fourth consecutive term in January fled the country earlier this month after her position became untenable amid growing anti-government protests.

The unrest that prompted Hasina’s departure related to the issue of public sector job quotas for families of war veterans. However, developments in Bangladesh can also be seen as a harbinger of broader trends in South Asia and the Global South.

The instability in Bangladesh bears an eerie resemblance to recent developments in other South Asian countries. It was only two years ago that Sri Lanka saw anti-government demonstrations that led to then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. The images of anti-government demonstrators storming the prime minister’s residence in Dhaka parallels what happened in Sri Lanka in 2022 after protesters overran the presidential palace and prime minister’s residence in Colombo.
Similar scenes were seen in Pakistan in 2023, when anti-government protesters attacked an army garrison and corps commander’s residence. This followed the arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan after his removal from power.

In every case a common theme is economic distress. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are all in the midst of International Monetary Fund bailouts. Pakistan has just secured its 24th IMF bailout, a world record. Sri Lanka is barely on the road to recovery from its 2022 sovereign default. Bangladesh is in the midst of a US$4.7 billion IMF bailout.

The West has often attributed this economic distress to China’s opaque lending practices and coercive economic activities. China accounts for over two-thirds of Pakistan’s external bilateral debt, over 60 per cent for the Maldives, over 50 per cent for Sri Lanka and around a quarter of Bangladesh’s foreign debt. Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port project has become synonymous with China’s alleged debt-trap diplomacy narrative after Beijing secured a 99-year lease for the project.

This narrative fails to grant sufficient agency to the economic mismanagement of host governments. Sri Lanka under the Rajapaksas, Bangladesh under Sheikh Hasina and Pakistan under a string of military leaders have been unresponsive to their young and aspirational populations.

South Asian economies are also vulnerable to external shocks, not least a climate of growing global protectionism. Several countries depend on foreign remittances; they accounted for almost a quarter of Nepal’s gross domestic product in 2022 and about 10 per cent of Pakistan’s in 2021.

These countries also rely on externally-oriented industries. Tourism accounts for over a tenth of Sri Lanka’s GDP and almost a third for the Maldives. Textiles account for over 80 per cent of Bangladesh’s export earnings.

Exacerbating this is the rise of social media, which has given populations access to alternative narratives while also making it easier to mobilise. In India, where prime minister Narendra Modi had been touted for his media-savvy skills, the recent election that saw his party returned to power on a weakened mandate showed that the government’s grip on public opinion has weakened.

This is being fuelled by the rise of social media influencers who are not beholden to the government. In Bangladesh, where there are more than 50 million social media users (equivalent to 30 per cent of the population) and almost 190 million mobile phone connections (exceeding the population of over 170 million), these fears are likely to have prompted the government to terminate mobile internet services at times of unrest.

Demography also plays a part. In Bangladesh, 18 million people aged 18 to 24 are reportedly not working or enrolled in school. With 400,000 new graduates competing for 3,000 civil service jobs, it is not surprising that the issue of public sector job quotas became a lightning rod for the anti-government unrest that ultimately unseated Sheikh Hasina from power.

This alludes to a broader challenge facing countries in South Asia with large young populations. With around 36 per cent of South Asia’s population below the age of 18, there is a latent risk of the region’s demographic dividend becoming a demographic burden in the absence of sufficient economic opportunities and job creation.

Even in India, which has been touted as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, the surprise outcome of the country’s recent election reflected grievances over the country’s high youth unemployment and growing inequality.

A narrative that has gained ground in recent years is the “rise of the rest”, with the “rest” referring to non-Western countries that fall under the often used, though poorly defined, label of the Global South. A combination of slowing growth, ageing populations and dysfunctional politics in Western countries has made it fashionable to talk about the “rest” surpassing the West. Supporting this narrative, the Brics grouping of emerging countries has surpassed the Group of Seven economies in terms of contribution to global GDP.

However, developments in Bangladesh point to a degree of irrational exuberance. On paper, its economy appeared to be in strong shape with its GDP once surpassing India’s, as well as its higher female workforce participation rate. Bangladesh is on course to graduate from least-developed country status by 2026.

The country, like other emerging economies such as Mexico, Vietnam and India, has been promoted as a beneficiary of the push to de-risk or diversify supply chains away from China. However, this belies structural challenges facing the Bangladeshi economy that came to the fore during the latest unrest. What happened in Bangladesh is a canary in the coal mine of broader trends in South Asia and the Global South.d79ad228-3791-4749-8e86-391d768ad731_974a4466.jpg
 
I am not sure why folks are paranoid about the CIA. If the elites run an inclusive and efficient government there is no danger about any color revolution

If Bangladesh's economy was really doing well and the benefits were spread out to enough people why would there be a revolt ?

India and Pakistan are not ideal for color revolutions because they are too large and too diverse.
 
I am not sure why folks are paranoid about the CIA. If the elites run an inclusive and efficient government there is no danger about any color revolution

If Bangladesh's economy was really doing well and the benefits were spread out to enough people why would there be a revolt ?

India and Pakistan are not ideal for color revolutions because they are too large and too diverse.
Most Bangladeshi here have dismissed the notion of a CIA color revolution. Now, we can argue about this, or trust the Bangladeshi members here who know a lot more about their politics than all of us put together.
 
Most Bangladeshi here have dismissed the notion of a CIA color revolution. Now, we can argue about this, or trust the Bangladeshi members here who know a lot more about their politics than all of us put together.

Look on PDF - numerous Pakistanis call the 2014 revolt in Ukraine a color revolution
 
Look on PDF - numerous Pakistanis call the 2014 revolt in Ukraine a color revolution
So what yous sayin is that India/ Pakistan/ Sri Lanka/ Nepal too extremely vulnerable no? Velvet hand color revolution.....? Lets not mince words here. Are you saying colored peepal/ converts vulnerable? eeezy peezy no?
 
Third world countries have greedy politicians and bad governance.
That's all there is to it. Nothing else.
If the US or any govt can influence political system in your country it's your own fault.
 
@Lulldapull

Most Bangladeshi here have dismissed the notion of a CIA color revolution.

Have you come across any Revolutionary who admits that they are beneficiaries of af a CIA color revloution?

Regards
 
@Lulldapull

Most Bangladeshi here have dismissed the notion of a CIA color revolution.

Have you come across any Revolutionary who admits that they are beneficiaries of af a CIA color revloution?

Regards
Never! Most revolutionary outfits are generally anti capitalist and sworn enemies of the imperial west. Although recently outfits like FARC or the Iranian MKO terrorists or even the PKK/YPG have gone on CIA payroll for various reasons and geo-political realities.

At the end of the day, revolutionary drama only goes so far until it gets watered down and then it inevitably become an issue of money/ survival/ transformation.

Same story all the time.
 
This was most certainly a color revolution in Bangladesh and there have been reports in the weeks prior to the upheaval there were several current advisors who visited the US embassy frequently in that period. Especially the names Asif Nazrul, Adilur Rahman Khan and Assaduzzaman come up and they have now created a clique within the CG to accumulate power for themselves and have effectively already killed the 'revolution' to achieve their own personal ends. I compare these three with Ahmad Challabi of Iraq who convinced America to do a regime change and topple Saddam and America was all ears because they wanted a servile puppet to carry out their agenda. Now look at the situation in Iraq and a very similar thing looks likely to happen in Bangladesh. Also Yunus looks like an ineffective and weak leader without a real agenda for reform and is merely being dictated to by Asif, Adil and Asad.
 

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