IMF - International Monetary Fund Program Updates

[Pradotlc]

khurram shehzad, has a criminal mindset!

I'd fire him right away without second thought!

These clowns will say any thing

 

[RescueRanger]

khurram shehzad, has a criminal mindset!

I'd fire him right away without second thought!

Its like Shohei Ohtani (amazing Baseball Player) talking about the US economy

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@PakFactor sb

Isn't USD 11 billion too large an amount given the relatively small size of PAK's foreign trade? Fudging import data would have had an impacted on the forex assets/forex liabilities position also, no?

Regards

 

[Justin TruDont]

Corruption is so deep down and recently massive expense on Elite... who every year swallow down billions in the name of perks and privilages. When Shahbaz and Mariam roaming with family and servants around the world on Pak taxpayer ... what will be the outcome. Pakistan is basically gone case...
This is the case till 2021 and imagine now ..

Elite privilege consumes $17.4bn of Pakistan’s economy: UNDP​

In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, UNDP’s Kanni Wignaraja says Pakistani leaders have promised action over the damning UN report.

Where is the 17 billion going


Surely this amount is not just being spent of Shahbaz Sharif 's foreign trips

 

[Blueishere]

IMF seeks clarity on $11b trade data gap​

PRAL, PSW import figures raises questions over credibility of data; ministries worry against making revisions public

ISLAMABAD:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has asked Pakistan to publicly disclose $11 billion worth of discrepancies in trade data reported by two government entities over the last two fiscal years, raising questions about the credibility of the country's external sector indicators.

Government sources told The Express Tribune that imports reported by Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) were $5.1 billion lower than those reported by Pakistan Single Window (PSW) for fiscal year 2023-24. The difference widened further to $5.7 billion in the following fiscal year, they added. PSW's import figures, which are considered more comprehensive and include all import entries, were also higher than the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)'s freight-on-board (FoB) based import data, said the sources. The current account surplus for the last fiscal year was calculated using the central bank's data.

The Pakistani authorities briefed the IMF this week after the global lender approached the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) before the start of review talks, according to the sources. The issue was later discussed in sessions with PBS and the Ministry of Planning and Development.

During the discussions, the IMF recommended that Pakistan adopt a clear communication policy to explain the discrepancies in trade data and the changes in methodology to avoid mistrust between the government and data users.

Pakistan reportedly admitted to the IMF that the trade data, submitted to the Geneva-based International Trade Center (ITC) by PBS, was not comprehensive and that some import figures were missing from its reporting. However, officials maintained that the underreporting was not due to any malafide intent but rather stemmed from the transition of the trade data source from PRAL to PSW.

PRAL operates under the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), while PSW is an independent legal entity, although most of its officers come from the Customs Department.

The sources said the PSW data is more comprehensive and covers all import entries, particularly those related to trade facilitation schemes. In contrast, PRAL's data underreported imports, especially of raw materials. The IMF was informed that discrepancies in data grew significantly during fiscal years 2023-24 and 2024-25, and the trend has continued during the first two months (JulyAugust) of the current fiscal year.

According to the sources, the IMF has asked Pakistani authorities to correct and update past trade data and share it with both the IMF and all domestic stakeholders, including the media. The IMF further advised Pakistan to ensure a clear communication policy, stressing that a lack of communication regarding data revisions and discrepancies in data creates doubts about the accuracy of official statistics.

Source of discrepancy

Sources have said the underreporting surfaced during an exercise aimed at identifying the reasons behind a large discrepancy between trade data reported by Pakistani importers and Chinese exporters. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had formed a committee to investigate the issue. A joint team comprising officials from the FBR, PBS, PRAL, and PSW analysed five years of trade data. It emerged that PBS's trade data was retrieved using a programmed query that had not been updated since 2017, leading to consistent underreporting of imports, which increased substantially in recent years.

The PSW's database was based on 15 types of goods declarations, offering comprehensive coverage compared to PRAL's data, which was limited to seven.

This difference resulted in a $5.1 billion underreporting of imports in fiscal year 2023-24 and $5.7 billion in the previous year, primarily due to trade facilitation scheme-related goods declarations being excluded from PRAL's dataset. In one internal meeting, sources said, the FBR informed stakeholders that Pakistan Customs had created a separate goods declaration category for trade facilitation schemes. However, this classification was not integrated into PBS's data collection system under PRAL, resulting in missing figures.

The most significant discrepancy was in the textile sector, where nearly $3 billion worth of imports were underreported. Imports in the metal group were also understated by about $1 billion in fiscal year 2023-24. Despite the IMF's recommendation for transparency, sources said the PBS was reluctant to make the revisions to the previous years' data public.

Officials in the Ministry of Finance were also concerned that publicising the revised figures could affect net export calculations, which might, in turn, influence economic growth estimates.

IMF seeks clarity on $11b trade data gap | The Express Tribune

PRAL, PSW import figures raises questions over credibility of data; ministries worry against making revisions public

tribune.com.pk

@PakFactor it’s data fudging Ishaq Dar all over again!

This government needs to be removed immediately, what else could you have expected from these frauds. Their every sentence is a lie, this was no different.

 

[Pradotlc]

This government needs to be removed immediately, what else could you have expected from these frauds. Their every sentence is a lie, this was no different.

The problem is the people who brought them in are the same…

 

[suryaya]

It emerged that PBS's trade data was retrieved using a programmed query that had not been updated since 2017, leading to consistent underreporting of imports, which increased substantially in recent years.

As a data engineer this cracks me up. Data analysts are the same everywhere.

 

[ghazi52]

Govt set to ink IMF deal after ‘flood adjustments’​

Khaleeq Kiani
October 10, 2025

ISLAMABAD: The authorities are hopeful for the finalisation of a staff-level agreement (SLA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb’s upcoming visit to the United States, subject to the consensus on the external account and verified flood-related losses, as well as their fiscal adjustment across central and provincial accounts.

Official sources confirmed that the IMF had shared the draft Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) with the authorities before a visiting mission left Pakistan after two weeks of engagements.

“We were at the cusp of finalising the SLA, but two crucial tables that form part of the MEFP required further adjustments,” an official said, hoping that the latest data on foreign remittances had strengthened Pakistan’s stance about the external account.

He said the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) would hold its cautious monetary policy stance for now in light of the rebounding inflation. Moreover, the flood-related losses still need to be finalised and verified.

Officials said the IMF mission appreciated the efforts of the power division, particularly its secretary Dr Fakhre Alam Irfan, for exceeding almost all performance indicators — a rare feat. However, the Fund warned that timely corrective measures, including tariff adjustments, would be crucial for sustainability.

Therefore, the government will have to ensure the timely disbursement of committed subsidies, including the payment of pending bills by the provinces where consumer bills were waived or relaxed in flood-affected districts.

The provinces, with adjustments against flood losses, must also deliver their cash surplus targets. The government will maintain a tight fiscal policy, particularly regarding the disbursement of development funds, while development projects in flood-affected regions will remain on hold.

The FBR is set to revise its revenue collection target downward, with measures prepared for implementation by Jan 1, 2026, to address any further shortfalls.

These issues are expected to be finalised during the upcoming IMF-World Bank annual meetings, where the Pakistani delegation, led by the finance minister and including the SBP governor and FBR chairman, will depart this weekend. Sources said that public debt-related figures, including fixed and flexible interest rates, sukuk and maturities, are safely within targets.

 

[ghazi52]

Govt close to sealing IMF staff deal, $1.2b payout expected to ease financial pressure​

IMF projects Pakistan’s economic growth at 3.6% for 2025-26, falling short of the government’s target of 4.2%

Our Correspondent
October 14, 2025

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb speaks during a Reuters interview at the 2025 annual IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, US, April 25, 2025. Photo: Reuters/ File

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The government is poised to sign a preliminary deal on a review of its loan programme with the International Monetary Fund this week, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said, a key step required to pave the way for another $1.24 billion payout from the lender.

An IMF mission left Pakistan last week without signing a so-called staff level agreement on the second review of the Washington-based lender's $7 billion Extended Fund Facility and the first one on its $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility agreed in 2024 to shore up the economy after a severe financial crisis.

"The mission was on the ground for a couple of weeks, we had very constructive dialogue with them around the quantitative benchmarks, the structural benchmarks, and we've been having some follow-up discussions," Aurangzeb told Reuters during an interview on the sidelines of the IMF World Bank annual meeting.

 

[ghazi52]

Countries under IMF lending programmes need to pass regular reviews, which - once signed off by the Fund's executive board, trigger a payment of the next tranche of IMF funding.

The IMF programme agreed in September 2024 helped shore up then-cash-strapped Pakistan's $370 billion economy that was engulfed in an economic crisis with inflation spiralling to record highs, a rapidly depreciating currency and a bulging external deficit.

Aurangzeb expected the government would launch a green Panda bond - the first one denominated in Chinese yuan for Pakistan - before year-end and return to international markets next year with a bond sale of at least $1 billion, though details were still to be decided.

"Euro, dollar, Sukuk, Islam Sukuk - we're keeping our options open," he said.

Meanwhile the privatisation push - part of a long-delayed sale of state assets under an economic reform and fiscal stabilisation agenda - was expected to gain traction in the fiscal year to end-June after disappointing results last year.

"This is something which is very important as part of our economic roadmap," he said.

Pakistan was also making progress on the sale of three power distribution companies and national carrier Pakistan International Airlines (PIA).

"We are quite hopeful," Aurangzeb said, citing prospects for qualified bidders for PIA after lucrative routes to Europe and Britain were opened, which made it "a very good proposition for the investors."

 

[ghazi52]

IMF projects 3.6% GDP growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s economic growth for the 2025-26 fiscal year at 3.6%, falling short of the government’s target of 4.2%. However, the global lender anticipates gradual improvement in growth over the coming years, along with a reduction in inflation and unemployment.

The IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook report, highlighting that the global economy continues to face trade and geopolitical uncertainties. The report noted that while Pakistan’s GDP growth is expected to underperform this fiscal year, broader economic stability is showing signs of improvement.

“Pakistan’s GDP growth is projected at 3.6% for 2025-26, below the government’s target of 4.2%,” the IMF said.

Last fiscal year, Pakistan’s economic growth was 2.7%. The IMF also estimated that unemployment in Pakistan will fall to 7.5% this year, down from 8% in 2024-25. Inflation is expected to remain contained at around 6%, compared with the government’s target of 7.5% and last year’s rate of 4.5%.

The report further forecast Pakistan’s current account deficit at 0.4% of GDP for 2025-26, slightly below the government’s target of 0.5% (equivalent to $2.1 billion). Last year, Pakistan posted a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP. The IMF projected the deficit to remain limited at 1.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.

The IMF also highlighted that Pakistan remains a major oil-importing country. While economic stabilisation signs are evident, inflation continues to pose a significant challenge to the country’s economy.

“Economic stability in Pakistan is improving, but inflation remains a key challenge,” the report stated.

 

[ghazi52]

FinMin pushes reform at IMF–World Bank meetings

Pakistan and the International Finance Corporation have agreed to expedite the financial closure of the Reko Diq project, as Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb began a series of high-level engagements with global financial institutions in Washington.

During a meeting with Riccardo Puliti, International Finance Corporation (IFC)’s Regional Vice President for the Middle East, Central Asia, Türkiye, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Aurangzeb lauded IFC’s role in driving private investment under its 10-year Country Partnership Framework (CPF). He also welcomed IFC’s new regional office in Islamabad, terming it “a step toward deeper collaboration and increased investment momentum”.

The meetings are taking place on the sidelines of the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings, where Aurangzeb is representing Pakistan to sustain reform momentum and attract long-term financing.

Read: Tariff talk clouds IMF, World Bank meetings

In discussions with IMF’s Jihad Azour and the World Bank’s Axel van Trotsenburg, both sides reaffirmed commitment to “maintaining reform momentum and macroeconomic discipline” under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) review. Aurangzeb underscored Pakistan’s climate vulnerabilities, citing floods’ impact on agriculture and GDP, and called for enhanced investment in adaptation and mitigation.

At the Commonwealth Finance Ministers’ Meeting, Aurangzeb urged “concrete actions for a resilient and prosperous Commonwealth,” backing initiatives like the Infrastructure and Financial Resilience Hub and the Technical Assistance Fund. He emphasised the need to operationalize climate financing tools, including the Loss and Damage Fund.

 

[ghazi52]

Pakistan, IMF reach staff-level agreement for $1.2bn disbursement​

Agreement subject to IMF Executive Board approval

BR Web Desk
October 15, 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Pakistani authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on the second review under Pakistan’s 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the first review under the 28-month Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

“The staff-level agreement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board. Upon approval, Pakistan will have access to about $1.0 billion (SDR 760 million) under the EFF and about $200 million (SDR 154 million) under the RSF, bringing total disbursements under the two arrangements to about $3.3 billion,” read a statement released by the IMF on Wednesday, following the conclusion of discussions with the Pakistani authorities.

An IMF team, led by Iva Petrova, held discussions during September 24-October 8, 2025, mission to Karachi and Islamabad, and in Washington DC, for the second review under the EFF and the first review under the RSF.

The Washington-based lender stated: “Supported by the EFF, Pakistan’s economic program is entrenching macroeconomic stability and rebuilding market confidence. The recovery remains on track, with the FY25 current account recording a surplus—the first in 14 years, the fiscal primary balance surpassing the program target, inflation remaining contained, external buffers strengthening, and financial conditions improving as sovereign spreads have narrowed significantly.

“However, the recent floods- which have affected nearly 7 million people, caused over 1,000 deaths, and severely damaged housing, public infrastructure, and agricultural land- have weighed on the outlook, particularly of the agriculture sector, bringing down the projected FY26 GDP to about 3¼ -3½ percent.

The floods underscore Pakistan’s high vulnerability to natural disasters and substantial climate-related risks, and the continuing need to build climate resilience,” the IMF noted.

According to the Fund, the Pakistani authorities reaffirmed their commitment to the EFF- and RSF-supported programs, and to maintaining sound and prudent macroeconomic policies while advancing ongoing structural reforms.

 

[ghazi52]

“The authorities remain committed to meeting the FY26 budget primary surplus of 1.6% of GDP, anchored in sustained efforts to mobilize revenue through tax policy and compliance measures, and stand ready to take necessary actions should revenue shortfalls risk program targets.

“At the same time, the authorities are assessing the flood damage and are providing urgent flood relief support in the affected provinces via reallocations in the provincial and federal budgets,” the IMF said.

The multilateral lender said that as social protection remains a key pillar of the EFF-supported program, the authorities are working to enhance the generosity, coverage, and administrative capacity of the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP). They are also committed to scaling up non-BISP health and education spending at both the federal and provincial levels to support inclusive growth and safeguard vulnerable populations.

The IMF said that efforts are underway to enhance revenue mobilization, broaden burden-sharing between federal and provincial governments, and strengthen public financial management. In particular, recognizing the provinces’ vital role in domestic revenue mobilization, the federal authorities will continue deepening collaboration with provincial counterparts.

 

[ghazi52]

The authorities are also making important progress in strengthening tax policy design, with the newly established tax policy office, which will lead medium-term reforms to simplify the tax code and reduce reliance on ad hoc measures.

Moreover, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) remains committed to a prudent monetary policy stance, guided by incoming data, including the impact of recent floods and the evolving economic recovery, to ensure inflation remains durably within its target range of 5-7%.

“While the floods are likely to have a temporary impact on prices, the SBP stands ready to adjust its policy stance should price pressures intensify or inflation expectations become unanchored.

While the sustained buildup of international reserves is welcome, further steps are needed to deepen the foreign exchange market to facilitate transactions, support price discovery, and cushion external shocks,” said the IMF.

The authorities in Pakistan also remain committed to preventing the accumulation of circular debt through timely tariff adjustments that ensure cost recovery and maintaining a progressive tariff structure.

Structural reforms continue to focus on enhancing the performance, efficiency, and governance of distribution companies, including through privatization; upgrading the transmission system; privatizing inefficient generation companies; and completing the transition to a competitive electricity market.