India Economy Thread

Nilgiri said:
Could I get a source for these numbers?

I am using OEC:


The springiness margins PRC has developed in "broadcasting eqpmt" (i.e Huawei) is very distinct in its raw current account surplus generated here from say 2019 to 2022

Compared to taking integrated circuits where the current account is close to zero and generally holding around minus 50 billion or so for that chunk of time in comparison....i.e the throughput phenomenon dictated in end by US seignioriage (And say bidenomics 5 trillion debt-based spend push that found its way into wallstreet).

In end the IP earnings PRC has right now from world (i.e its core USP relative to rest of world past raw throughput capex-->opex related production) translate very comfortably around Huawei (I looked at the WTO patent distribution too some years back for this, it supports this compared to say what SMIC can operationalise vis a vis say Nvidia ecosystem).

This is large part of why PRC also hemorhagged 6 trillion in market capitalisation last few years. There has not been optimal deployment in investment (for large sectors of the economy and where they stack up as options for the Chinese public to put their savings etc).... like there has been in huawei. i.e using huawei as a good gold reference here for what developing world can accomplish if it deploys things adequately w.r.t what reality of what it has.
Click to expand...
This is the official website of China Customs import and export statistics. You can directly check the annual import and export value of integrated circuits.
 
Nilgiri said:
Raghuram Rajan has good idea of where the long term springiness is for Indian HR deployment (relative to world trends compared to say PLI capital lubricant) especially with land and labour laws stagnant for cluster logistics onshoring past states with proven track record like TN. The problem is current Indian establishment in charge dont listen to him much now.

Even with goods export stagnating at ~ 450 - 500 billion range from last year to this year....while service exports (through GCC and other models its transitioning into) is what is still growing fairly fast.

In any case there is a larger reality constraint Indian economy still has to work under to large degree while its wealth and production is small % compared to world average.

PRC is downstream of these things in its own way. Not taking anything away from what they have done in 5G, 5G+, 6G etc and increasingly in EV battery tech too, they have made objective advances here that are bourne out by the IP numbers they earn from rest of world.....past things like what I've seen with Huawei financing RnD in universities with departments, professors and even peer colleagues I know.

But compared to what has worked for say Huawei here......integrated chip apex manufacturing value addition by itself is fairly small (compared to the investment), its the HR you invest into researching, developing, organising it and operationalising it into larger product lines (like with Huawei) that matters far more.

This ultimately reflects in the IP transfer numbers (how unique you do it compared to others) and also the related service sector numbers inducted in the larger economic circuitry around it. Last I looked about 10 billion of the 13 billion that PRC earned from world was from huawei and related broadcast/comms companies. i.e everything else was just 3 billion or so....so the net trade for say integrated circuits by themselves as a category reflects that.

There is a strategic argument for the apex drive though (related to military autarkic capability), but that is another subject.

There are juicy tiers (in large world commercial economic domain) for India to really get into here in all kind of ways....but it requires knowing how to work with what you got rationally and not putting the cart in front of donkey too much. Appropriate price signalling for investment.

But there are warning signs for India building up already like the small and medium cap bubble (driven by desperate small investors).... because again the govt intervention has been very flawed.

i.e what are the logjams for manufacturing (in large densely populated states) that requires less upfront investment (that say TN has proven India can do over last 20 years be it Chennai car hub or Tirrupur RMG)....why aren't those being addressed before you frontload more apex stuff in piecemeal parts for brochures....totally unrelated to what agri labour of north India needs to increase their opportunities with what they know.

Indian economy is extremely stratified now. Huge problem if apex of it wants to simpy continue to copy paste apex stuff (from other world's vastly different contexts) without genuine hard work in first doing their bit in bringing basic things to the larger bulk regd appropriate investment there in supply side both in immediate livelihood above current spread on offer...and also for the long term human social development.
Click to expand...
A very satisfying read.
Thanks very much.
 
Nilgiri said:
Raghuram Rajan has good idea of where the long term springiness is for Indian HR deployment (relative to world trends compared to say PLI capital lubricant) especially with land and labour laws stagnant for cluster logistics onshoring past states with proven track record like TN. The problem is current Indian establishment in charge dont listen to him much now.

Even with goods export stagnating at ~ 450 - 500 billion range from last year to this year....while service exports (through GCC and other models its transitioning into) is what is still growing fairly fast.

In any case there is a larger reality constraint Indian economy still has to work under to large degree while its wealth and production is small % compared to world average.

PRC is downstream of these things in its own way. Not taking anything away from what they have done in 5G, 5G+, 6G etc and increasingly in EV battery tech too, they have made objective advances here that are bourne out by the IP numbers they earn from rest of world.....past things like what I've seen with Huawei financing RnD in universities with departments, professors and even peer colleagues I know.

But compared to what has worked for say Huawei here......integrated chip apex manufacturing value addition by itself is fairly small (compared to the investment), its the HR you invest into researching, developing, organising it and operationalising it into larger product lines (like with Huawei) that matters far more.

This ultimately reflects in the IP transfer numbers (how unique you do it compared to others) and also the related service sector numbers inducted in the larger economic circuitry around it. Last I looked about 10 billion of the 13 billion that PRC earned from world was from huawei and related broadcast/comms companies. i.e everything else was just 3 billion or so....so the net trade for say integrated circuits by themselves as a category reflects that.

There is a strategic argument for the apex drive though (related to military autarkic capability), but that is another subject.

There are juicy tiers (in large world commercial economic domain) for India to really get into here in all kind of ways....but it requires knowing how to work with what you got rationally and not putting the cart in front of donkey too much. Appropriate price signalling for investment.

But there are warning signs for India building up already like the small and medium cap bubble (driven by desperate small investors).... because again the govt intervention has been very flawed.

i.e what are the logjams for manufacturing (in large densely populated states) that requires less upfront investment (that say TN has proven India can do over last 20 years be it Chennai car hub or Tirrupur RMG)....why aren't those being addressed before you frontload more apex stuff in piecemeal parts for brochures....totally unrelated to what agri labour of north India needs to increase their opportunities with what they know.

Indian economy is extremely stratified now. Huge problem if apex of it wants to simpy continue to copy paste apex stuff (from other world's vastly different contexts) without genuine hard work in first doing their bit in bringing basic things to the larger bulk regd appropriate investment there in supply side both in immediate livelihood above current spread on offer...and also for the long term human social development.
Click to expand...
I don’t think anyone is disagreeing that services is more important but discarding manufacturing is the issue. India has vast population which depends on agriculture and need to move to manufacturing. There are lot more opportunities outside of phones and TV assembly in manufacturing. Also this kind of precision manufacturing brings lot more technical expertise which cannot possible without baby steps.

None of the high population nations became successful bypassing manufacturing. Sure it is not as fancy or high paying as services but definitely need of the hour to employ more people. If India can satisfy her needs instead of importing that will be a good start.

Now regarding PLI , it is must to jump start something. Just look America and China gives how much incentives to bring back manufacturing.
 
JaneBhiDoYaaron said:
I don’t think anyone is disagreeing that services is more important but discarding manufacturing is the issue. India has vast population which depends on agriculture and need to move to manufacturing. There are lot more opportunities outside of phones and TV assembly in manufacturing. Also this kind of precision manufacturing brings lot more technical expertise which cannot possible without baby steps.

None of the high population nations became successful bypassing manufacturing. Sure it is not as fancy or high paying as services but definitely need of the hour to employ more people. If India can satisfy her needs instead of importing that will be a good start.

Now regarding PLI , it is must to jump start something. Just look America and China gives how much incentives to bring back manufacturing.
Click to expand...

No one is saying discard or bypass manufacturing.

All I am asking is why the largest mass of relatively untapped human labour in North India exists as it does with little change brought to them.

What has TN done and what has BD done (regarding that Ganges valley has not done and still not doing for some of the largest supply of low cost labour in world?).....for labour at the tiers just above agricultural+manual/casual.

Learning how to walk before you can run with this labour regarding next batches of more expensive capital investment to bring in (that PLI doing its attempted short circuiting to pander and distract from the heavyset attention needed ).

We are expecting PLI to do some trickle down here from coastal states + South hiring nominally more labour from these areas? Whatever just NCR can host past that?

Why does Tiruppur RMG have its cluster working and why does entire stretch from Delhi to Patna to Kolkata not have even one such? A sector that China is still exporting 100+ billion dollars yearly btw. With both TN and China higher labour costs compared to North.....what is the major issue stopping BASIC capital transfer and allocation to something like 400 million people?

What are the capital roadblocks in north?...even with existing social development baked in, its doing a really bad job.

PLI is rejigging lubricant and snake oil for states already ahead of these areas. That too with tax payer money at federal level (instead of state level)....and also instead of looking at what the cash reserve ratios (and corporate debt level) are for corporate, especially the large-cap ones to begin with.

PLI is just brochure politicking based, it does nothing to answer the on the ground policies that brought industrial clusters to TN, that the north clearly needs but isnt getting.

You can only reshore, protect or ignite something if you have some actual fuel to work with in the largest bulk population to begin with....i.e actual supply side comprehensive vision for what has worked in parts of India, and why it has worked.

Otherwise Indian economy is just going to keep stratifying....the top 10% is still a large population that can insulate itself to high degree......but nothing huge going to change for the 90%.....the massive unemployment and underemployment crisis to continue.

Please dont compare US and China, what are their industrial clusters size and prevalence relative to their population size?

Crazy how Northies doggedly refuse to learn from TN and South....always this blind faith in BJP gesticulations. If they are blabbing something, it has to be correct!

All the talk of reaching 900 billion in total exports this year (a modest target to begin with)....even that has gone, because there was a DECLINE in goods exports....PLI snake oil and all....as again zero attention given to what the bulk of North India actually needs to get started on in basic way.

Then the whole blah blah of 6%, 7%, 8% growth of GDP (more brochurism)..... countries much more industrially advanced than India have qualitative problems with the GDP they report to back up to begin with:

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.....it is the exact reason for focus on hard objective proof deliverables regarding what the heck labour of a country is doing with their time each day....i.e whats moving from productivity 1 to productivity 2 (and the capex and HR organisation for this shift of 1 to 2).....before we can care to finesse things in 5 and 6.
 
Nilgiri said:
No one is saying discard or bypass manufacturing.

All I am asking is why the largest mass of relatively untapped human labour in North India exists as it does with little change brought to them.

What has TN done and what has BD done (regarding that Ganges valley has not done and still not doing for some of the largest supply of low cost labour in world?).....for labour at the tiers just above agricultural+manual/casual.

Learning how to walk before you can run with this labour regarding next batches of more expensive capital investment to bring in (that PLI doing its attempted short circuiting to pander and distract from the heavyset attention needed ).

We are expecting PLI to do some trickle down here from coastal states + South hiring nominally more labour from these areas? Whatever just NCR can host past that?

Why does Tiruppur RMG have its cluster working and why does entire stretch from Delhi to Patna to Kolkata not have even one such? A sector that China is still exporting 100+ billion dollars yearly btw. With both TN and China higher labour costs compared to North.....what is the major issue stopping BASIC capital transfer and allocation to something like 400 million people?

What are the capital roadblocks in north?...even with existing social development baked in, its doing a really bad job.

PLI is rejigging lubricant and snake oil for states already ahead of these areas. That too with tax payer money at federal level (instead of state level)....and also instead of looking at what the cash reserve ratios (and corporate debt level) are for corporate, especially the large-cap ones to begin with.

PLI is just brochure politicking based, it does nothing to answer the on the ground policies that brought industrial clusters to TN, that the north clearly needs but isnt getting.

You can only reshore, protect or ignite something if you have some actual fuel to work with in the largest bulk population to begin with....i.e actual supply side comprehensive vision for what has worked in parts of India, and why it has worked.

Otherwise Indian economy is just going to keep stratifying....the top 10% is still a large population that can insulate itself to high degree......but nothing huge going to change for the 90%.....the massive unemployment and underemployment crisis to continue.

Please dont compare US and China, what are their industrial clusters size and prevalence relative to their population size?

Crazy how Northies doggedly refuse to learn from TN and South....always this blind faith in BJP gesticulations. If they are blabbing something, it has to be correct!

All the talk of reaching 900 billion in total exports this year (a modest target to begin with)....even that has gone, because there was a DECLINE in goods exports....PLI snake oil and all....as again zero attention given to what the bulk of North India actually needs to get started on in basic way.

Then the whole blah blah of 6%, 7%, 8% growth of GDP (more brochurism)..... countries much more industrially advanced than India have qualitative problems with the GDP they report to back up to begin with:

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.


.....it is the exact reason for focus on hard objective proof deliverables regarding what the heck labour of a country is doing with their time each day....i.e whats moving from productivity 1 to productivity 2 (and the capex and HR organisation for this shift of 1 to 2).....before we can care to finesse things in 5 and 6.
Click to expand...

Before asking you should be realize UP and Bihar provide largest man power. Maharastra and Gujarat are full of them and drive manufacturing.

Now to answer your question of why. It is very simple answer. Law and order was non existent and pure goonda raaj (SP and BSP) and secondy hinter land with no export infrastructure.

Now UP is getting fixed under Yogi in law and order and industry are coming. Bihar has no hope until lalu clan is kicked out.

Infrastructure is happening also under Yogi/Modi. Western rail corridor is getting done and Eastern is in full steam. Ganga water way is work in progress and Road connectivity is awesome. Now if TN does few more riots against UP and Bihar people and more industry will establish in UP.

You can say 8% growth blah blah blah but tell me how much iphone has contributed to south economy that growth also came through PLI. You talk like before Modi India was land under where Milk and Honey was flowing and Modi destroyed it.

We both look things differently and approaches to resolve are different. You adore Rajan and I detest him. So lets leave there.
 
JaneBhiDoYaaron said:
Before asking you should be realize UP and Bihar provide largest man power. Maharastra and Gujarat are full of them and drive manufacturing.

Now to answer your question of why. It is very simple answer. Law and order was non existent and pure goonda raaj (SP and BSP) and secondy hinter land with no export infrastructure.

Now UP is getting fixed under Yogi in law and order and industry are coming. Bihar has no hope until lalu clan is kicked out.

Infrastructure is happening also under Yogi/Modi. Western rail corridor is getting done and Eastern is in full steam. Ganga water way is work in progress and Road connectivity is awesome. Now if TN does few more riots against UP and Bihar people and more industry will establish in UP.

You can say 8% growth blah blah blah but tell me how much iphone has contributed to south economy that growth also came through PLI. You talk like before Modi India was land under where Milk and Honey was flowing and Modi destroyed it.

We both look things differently and approaches to resolve are different. You adore Rajan and I detest him. So lets leave there.
Click to expand...
RR is a clown. He shouldn't be taken seriously. He as a RBI governor colluded with UPA govt by unseeing bad loans under his nose and created back breaking NPA that destroyed India's fiscal policy and it took 10 years to get rid of the mess created by him. A govornor should never collude with a political party and take decisions independently.
 
China is building EVs and ready to conquer the world market.

You guys should by all means build iPhones. An expensive iPhone that people are buying less and less.
 
Last edited:
m.economictimes.com

Zoho applies for semiconductor manufacturing facility in India

Software company Zoho, aiming to tap into India's aspirations to become a global semiconductor player, has applied with a partner to set up a semiconductor manufacturing facility in India. Co-founder Sridhar Vembu confirmed the move, citing a stringent evaluation process. The initiative aligns...
m.economictimes.com m.economictimes.com
 
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