India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) in the new globalorder: interests, strategies and values of the emerging coalition
Abstract
A question of interest to scholars of International Politics concerns the mannerin which weaker states attempt to influence stronger ones. This article offers acase study of one recent exercise in coalition-building among southern powersas a vehicle for change in international relations. It analyzes the global interests, strategies and values of India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) and the impact of
the IBSA Dialogue Forum on the global order. Five major points are outlined. First, common ideas and values shape the global discourse of the emerging coalition. Second, soft balancing based on a value-driven middle power discourse is a suitable concept to explain IBSA’s strategy in global institutions. Third, institutional foreign policy instruments such as agenda-setting and coalition-building are pivotal elements of IBSA’s soft balancing approach. Fourth, the trilateral coalition suffers from considerable divergence of interest in global governance issues and limited potential gains of its sectoral cooperation, particularly in trade, due to a lack of complementarities of the participating economies. Finally, despitethese obstacles the IBSA Forum has impacted the global order in recent years as a powerful driver for change. India, Brazil and South Africa have contributed to an incremental global power shift in their favour. The southern coalition also induced a change in the character of multilateralism and, in particular, its procedural values.
Key words
India, Brazil, South Africa, IBSA Dialogue Forum, soft balancing, global order, global governance and multilateralism
IBSA : Origin in the Context of a Shifting World Order
States playing a leading international role in rule-making are given specialimportance as far as the treatment of transnational problems is concerned. Thisapplies to questions of world trade as well as to transnational security risks.Attempts to solve problems under these policies can be organized both at theregional and global levels. In both cases, some state actors play a more importantrole than others in developing cooperation and negotiation processes and have,therefore, more influence on the results. The reason can be their greater militaryor economic potential. In the same way, their legitimacy, diplomatic effectiveness,moral authority as well as their representative function for a region or group ofstates might generate advantages in international bargaining.Recently, many studies have pointed to global power shifts in favour of theBRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and other rising powers (Cooper andAntkeiwicz 2008; Goldman Sachs 2007; Mahbubani 2008). Hitherto existingpower poles in Europe and North America are expected to lose relative militaryand economic power, and even the dominance of Western culture and values iscontested (Cox 2007; Ikenberry 2008; Zakaria 2008). The India-Brazil-SouthAfrica (IBSA) Dialogue Forum is a coalition of emerging powers intended tobenefit from the global power shifts. It was launched in June 2003 in Brasilia.Three months later, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, PresidentThabo Mbeki of South Africa and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayeeformed the Group of Three (G-3) during the fifty-eighth UN General Assemblysession and contributed crucially to the failure of the World Trade Organization(WTO) Conference in Cancun by pressing for fundamental changes in the agricultural subsidies regimes of the developed world. After several ministerial meetings, President da Silva, President Mbeki and Prime Minister Manmohan Singhheld the first IBSA Summit in Brasilia in September 2006. The three governmentscoordinated their standpoints and voting behaviour in the Non-Aligned Movement(NAM) conference in Havana and the sixty-first UN General Assembly session,where South Africa was elected a non-permanent member of the UN SecurityCouncil (2007–08) for the first time. Since then, IBSA has held regular ministerial meetings and heads of government summits in Pretoria (2007), New Delhi(2008) and Brasilia (2010).
A quick glance at IBSA’s schedule highlights the strengthening of diplomatic ties between the three emerging southern powers over the last few years. 
Together ,India, Brazil and South Africa lobby for reforms at the United Nations that allows for a stronger role for developing countries, which constitute the majority of theUN member-states. Nevertheless, the troika is not envisaging an alternative world order that privileges the developing world. Its initiative is instead firmly located in the existing international order, as the Brasilia Declaration1 suggests: ‘Respecting the rule of international law, strengthening the United Nations and the Security Council and prioritizing the exercise of diplomacy as means to maintain international peace and security’.
While the IBSA initiative may thus be seen as an effort to increase the bargaining power of developing nations, it equally focuses on concrete areas of cooperation between South Africa, India and Brazil. Trade, energy security, health andtransport are the most prominent issues of IBSA’s sectoral collaboration. IBSA can therefore be characterized as both a strategic alliance for the pursuit of common interests of developing countries in global institutions and a platform for bilateral, trilateral and interregional South–South cooperation. Sectoral cooperation will form a sound base for trilateral diplomacy in world affairs. How does and will the emerging coalition’s diplomacy impact the global order?Different scenarios of the future world order have been suggested: the systemic transformation can open out into a concert or cartel of powers (Kagan 2008), a‘non-polar world’ (Haass 2008), ‘unstable multipolarity’ (Humphrey and Messner2006), ‘multi-multipolarity’ (Friedberg 1994; Nolte 2008) or a ‘multi regional world order’ (Flemes 2008; Hurrell 2007). The point of departure is the current global order, which reflects a mixture of a concert of great powers and multi regional structures. It consists, on the one hand, of Europe as a relatively functional regionand, on the other, of many great powers without functional regions, such as the United States, China, Russia and India. Brazil and South Africa are now at crossroads and can actively pursue global strategies with or without their regions. The choices and strategies of Brazilian and South African foreign policy-makers can affect the balance between the aforementioned conceptions of global order.
The positions of emerging powers from the South (on the one hand, between the centre and the periphery of the current global order and, on the other, at the nexus of international and regional politics) demand particularly complex foreign policy strategies. Strategic approaches have to consider at least three contextual factors: first, the continuing superiority of established (the United States) and emerging (China) global actors in terms of material power; second, the fact that regional and global affairs are increasingly interrelated; and finally, the fact that foreign policy strategies are mapped out against the background of an international system moving from a unipolar to a multipolar order.
On the basis of these observations, the article, first, highlights the common ideas and values shaping IBSA’s global discourse; second, it addresses the foreign policy strategies pursued by IBSA; third, it reveals the common and divergent interests of the three players in global governance and sectoral cooperation; and finally, it analyzes the impact of IBSA’s policies on the global order.