The second paragraph of the part I have quoted is exactly what I'm worried about. Of course, the US wouldn't launch a ground invasion of Iran when it knows Iran can fight back and defeat them. They will wait until Iran has been weakened enough after multiple rounds of war and months of blockade.
The truth is that Iran cannot sustain this situation for 2 years. After 6 months to 12 months at best, assuming the same intensity since February 28th, most of our missiles capable of hitting Jordan and Israel will have been used. We're already firing unpainted missiles, which means that we're getting close to the end of our old missile stockpile.
Using FPVs is a great solution provided that Iran can mass produce them in millions. Ukraine is producing 6 million FPVs per year and it's still losing territory to Russia! 6 million FPVs in a year, that is possibly beyond Iran's industrial capacity in this situation. The US Army is better organized and equipped than the Russians and Iran does not have the entire NATO backing it unlike Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine, nobody is going to donate $300-$400 billion to Iran to fight against the US.
Israel is pretty OK with the situation of the Strait of Hormuz as it has been lobbying to turn Israel into a major route for energy transport. Arabs are panicking and the US feels its hegemony has been challenged. Other than that, the Strait of Hormuz isn't the main concern or issue in the long term. Iran's nuclear program and our ballistic missiles continue to remain the real issues. Even our proxies are no longer a major issue.
Russia is something else than some MEK/separatists armed from abroad. Let's be reasonable here, Russia has at least 700k men, battle hardened first world army, operating at the frontlines. With that army, they would have taken Iran 5 times over, regardless of FPV drones. This is not apples to apples comparison.
And no, it appears, lets hope I'm right, that the plan B is too costly, or has decided to be too costly. It appears US decision makers, especially Vance and Rubio, who both wanna run in 2028, have also pressured Trump to halt. Why? Even hitting Iranian energy won't fix the problem, the strait HAS to reopen (can't close it, and now Mandab, even if a bit leaky, for 2 years, that's just impossible).
It appears a mou 2.0 is coming and this time the US will do what it said, or at least mostly.
It seems sometimes even a declining superpower, even if run by juice, will hit a brick wall and walk back.
And one of the reasons I want to say this is this: the satanyahu/Trump meeting was very short. Nothing meaningful can be decided in a very short meaning, except a big fat NO! Satanyahu is talking in the press about how Hormuz is Iran's now (because he said WE will help bypass it in the future). That's a loser's spin. Yeah go build pipelines for years to bypass something. Sure.
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