Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

Even if this were true, send 20 trucks to Fordo. Then send them all in different directions. Do you think they will be able to pinpoint which truck has the uranium via satellite?

Assume that their time resolution is under 5 minutes. I don't see why it should be impossible to do. How much does a loaded truck travel in 5 minutes? 5km? 8km? Assuming a speed of 60km/h to 100km/h. It's not that far to lose track, is it?

They also had surveillance drones over Iran. We did shoot down a couple of them, but how many did we fail to shoot down? I guess we'll never know.

The point is that you cannot just load 15,000 centrifuges, 408 kg of 60% enriched uranium + tones of lower-enriched uranium stockpile and completely evade all kinds of detection.

 

[Michael]

Your answer is pretty basic and hardly goes beyond what is taught in high school physics in most countries.

If we use a 500km LEO satellite in a circular orbit as a baseline, it would pass 2-4 times over Iran every 24 hours. Its field of view would be enough to cover all of central Iran and each time it will be over Iran for about 10 minutes. So, in theory, you'll need fewer than 150 satellites in the orbit to achieve nearly real-time reconnaissance ability over most of Iran. I don't know about the Chinese capabilities, but the US has 10,000 LEO satellites. That's more than enough to achieve nearly real-time high-res reconnaissance.

The lifespan of LEO satellites is shorter mainly due to space debris, not because of energy issues in the orbit. If you achieve a perfect circular orbit, you don't experience much gravitational loss of energy because W = F.d and the gravitational pull towards the center is perpendicular to the movement of the satellite (tangential).

1. Not all LEO satellites are remote sensing satellites (optical reconnaissance satellites are a type of remote sensing satellite). Optical reconnaissance satellites are only a small part of them.

2. Large remote sensing satellite constellations are public information worldwide. No country can hide this information. The United States/Russia/China. They can hide a specific-purpose satellite or spacecraft, but they cannot hide a large remote sensing satellite constellation.
It is known that Jilin-1 is currently the largest remote sensing satellite constellation in the world. It currently has over 130 satellites in orbit, with more still being launched. The constellation is planned to reach over 300 satellites in orbit.

3. The daily data volume generated by large remote sensing satellite constellations is staggering. If all the data were downloaded to the ground for analysis, it would severely clog communication channels. China has already launched computing satellites into space. This data will be processed and analyzed directly in space. The final results will be transmitted back to ground receiving stations.

This is a video of the “Jilin-1” smart surveillance system monitoring Atlanta Airport in the United States. You can assess its capabilities for yourself.

Sina Visitor System

 

[muhammed45]

Your answer is pretty basic and hardly goes beyond what is taught in high school physics in most countries.

If we use a 500km LEO satellite in a circular orbit as a baseline, it would pass 2-4 times over Iran every 24 hours. Its field of view would be enough to cover all of central Iran and each time it will be over Iran for about 10 minutes. So, in theory, you'll need fewer than 150 satellites in the orbit to achieve nearly real-time reconnaissance ability over most of Iran. I don't know about the Chinese capabilities, but the US has 10,000 LEO satellites. That's more than enough to achieve nearly real-time high-res reconnaissance.

The lifespan of LEO satellites is shorter mainly due to space debris, not because of energy issues in the orbit. If you achieve a perfect circular orbit, you don't experience much gravitational loss of energy because W = F.d and the gravitational pull towards the center is perpendicular to the movement of the satellite (tangential).

What is your field of study?

Btw, to achieve temporal resolution, deploying multiple satellites into a constellation could be a great solution but it will be too expensive, depending on your demand. Geo-stationary satellites lack high spatial resolution but are highly survivable due to much less attrition.

Jews will pay for every penny of LEO sats to achieve their desired real time data from Iran.

 

[ShapurII]

1. Not all LEO satellites are remote sensing satellites (optical reconnaissance satellites are a type of remote sensing satellite). Optical reconnaissance satellites are only a small part of them.

2. Large remote sensing satellite constellations are public information worldwide. No country can hide this information. The United States/Russia/China. They can hide a specific-purpose satellite or spacecraft, but they cannot hide a large remote sensing satellite constellation.
It is known that Jilin-1 is currently the largest remote sensing satellite constellation in the world. It currently has over 130 satellites in orbit, with more still being launched. The constellation is planned to reach over 300 satellites in orbit.

3. The daily data volume generated by large remote sensing satellite constellations is staggering. If all the data were downloaded to the ground for analysis, it would severely clog communication channels. China has already launched computing satellites into space. This data will be processed and analyzed directly in space. The final results will be transmitted back to ground receiving stations.

Sure, I didn't claim all of those 10K satellites were used for reconnaissance, did I?

Also, remember that the US is not alone. Every satellite launched by the US, Israel, France, the UK, or any other country with decent reconnaissance abilities can and will be used against Iran. Why do you think the US had something like MET in Qatar to relay information to Israel and NATO?

The US has tremendous amount of processing power. Its processing power is already estimated at 100-120 ExaFLOPS. They already have super computers that have reached +5 ExaFLOPS. Didn't you see how they tracked Iranian military generals using the data they collected through social apps, smart phones, etc.?

The problem of continuous coverage of reconnaissance constellations is something that has been thoroughly studied. I did ask AI to find me some evidence for my initial estimate that 150 satellites would be enough to reach nearly real-time coverage over Iran. It turns out that both copilot and ChatGPT agreed with me that achieving under 5 minutes revisit time with 150 satellites is absolutely possible.

Copilot even gave me some article on Arxiv that discusses the same problem. Ironically enough, the image they use to set up their geometric equations focuses on the Middle East. An interesting coincidence.

​

On top of all this, remember that both the US and Israel were flying reconnaissance drones near and even over some regions of Iran.

 

[ShapurII]

What is your field of study?

Btw, to achieve temporal resolution, deploying multiple satellites into a constellation could be a great solution but it will be too expensive, depending on your demand. Geo-stationary satellites lack high spatial resolution but are highly survivable due to much less attrition.

Jews will pay for every penny of LEO sats to achieve their desired real time data from Iran.

Dude, I'm afraid of you recently. You're a hardcore supporter of the system, I will no longer share personal information on this site lol

Yes, geosynchronous and geostationary satellites are great but expensive, and have not achieved under 100m resolution yet, if I'm not mistaken.

Jews have control over nearly every US and Western asset. The AI-field is highly managed and controlled by Jewish billionaires. The Jewish empire in the US is only getting richer day by day. God knows when this will stop. The only hope left is that at least China has not been infested by the Zionist influence yet.

On a side note, I do respect you for your mild temper and cool-headed personality. I disagree with you about the situation though. You seem to take it very lightly, downplaying the existential danger that Iran faces at this sensitive period of time, not just for Iran, but for the new world order. The world is changing fast and Iran is right at the center of the chessboard.

 

[BigMela2onin]

I am starting to believe the Shah was doing this, and was slowly starting to turn against Israel. Some in Washington and Tel Aviv were probably breathing a sigh of relief when he was deposed.

Khomenei was living in France, flown in on Air France, and Reagan offered to him to restore the previous US-Iran relationship. He was being supported by the west as the Shah wanted too much independence and "went rogue" from the western perspective when he attained power.

 

[muhammed45]

Dude, I'm afraid of you recently. You're a hardcore supporter of the system, I will no longer share personal information on this site lol

Lol. Its ok bro. But afraid of what exactly? Every person is entitled to own opinion. Unless you were one of those Mullah's sons that have migrated to west with billions of Tomans, in that case, you are not blamed for being afraid. Otherwise why be afraid? From your own countrymen?

I am a follower of Ali Khamenei, he is leading Iran at this truly hard times of Iranian history. That's all. And i am not obliged to support each and every Mullah in the street lol.

If you are one of those corrupt Mullah sons or an MEK affiliated, which i seriously doubt, then be afraid. Otherwise, its silly to be afraid of something.

On a side note, I do respect you for your mild temper and cool-headed personality. I disagree with you about the situation though. You seem to take it very lightly, downplaying the existential danger that Iran faces at this sensitive period of time, not just for Iran, but for the new world order. The world is changing fast and Iran is right at the center of the chessboard.

We are also worried about the country. Only traitors do not care. Have you my word, till we have Khamenei, there is nothing to worry about.

At worst, he will order to organize volunteers, he has millions of soldiers after all.

 

[ShapurII]

Lol. Its ok bro. But afraid of what exactly? Every person is entitled to own opinion. Unless you were one of those Mullah's sons that have migrated to west with billions of Tomans, in that case, you are not blamed for being afraid. Otherwise why be afraid? From your own countrymen?

I was kidding for the most part but I have been threatened here before. Funnily enough, the person who likes to threaten Iranians about "consequences" has long disappeared, and he wasn't even Iranian to begin with, I think.

I am a follower of Ali Khamenei, he is leading Iran at this truly hard times of Iranian history. That's all. And i am not obliged to support each and every Mullah in the street lol.

If you are one of those corrupt Mullah sons or an MEK affiliated, which i seriously doubt, then be afraid. Otherwise, its silly to be afraid of something.

We are also worried about the country. Only traitors do not care. Have you my word, till we have Khamenei, there is nothing to worry about.

At worst, he will order to organize volunteers, he has millions of soldiers after all.

I don't know if you follow Mohammad Nadimi's videos or not, but I agree with him that something really big is happening in the world and Iran is at the forefront of this war due to our years of standing against the current world order and our strategic location.

The situation is not good. The earth is said to be overpopulated even though it's not and the real problem is corporate greed, resources are getting scarce at the hands of few multi-national corporations. AI is going to render most of humans absolutely useless by 2040. Huge changes are on the horizon. Rise of AI, brain-computer interface, the fall of the WASP dominance over the world, and the decline of Western European countries. It's just too much in such a short span of time.

Iran needs nuclear deterrence if we want to survive all this. We need to be ready but we have been cornered by everyone.

I am not the kind of person that feels obligated to support anybody. I don't support the Pahlavis. I don't support the Ayatollahs. I only support Iran and Iranians. Iran went through a period of isolation and resistance, but did not achieve nuclear deterrence. That's treason. A country with the sort of threats that we face must be armed with nuclear weapons and actively improve its yield/mass ratio but alas, I don't think anybody would listen to what Iranians say.

 

[Michael]

Sure, I didn't claim all of those 10K satellites were used for reconnaissance, did I?

Also, remember that the US is not alone. Every satellite launched by the US, Israel, France, the UK, or any other country with decent reconnaissance abilities can and will be used against Iran. Why do you think the US had something like MET in Qatar to relay information to Israel and NATO?

The US has tremendous amount of processing power. Its processing power is already estimated at 100-120 ExaFLOPS. They already have super computers that have reached +5 ExaFLOPS. Didn't you see how they tracked Iranian military generals using the data they collected through social apps, smart phones, etc.?

The problem of continuous coverage of reconnaissance constellations is something that has been thoroughly studied. I did ask AI to find me some evidence for my initial estimate that 150 satellites would be enough to reach nearly real-time coverage over Iran. It turns out that both copilot and ChatGPT agreed with me that achieving under 5 minutes revisit time with 150 satellites is absolutely possible.

Copilot even gave me some article on Arxiv that discusses the same problem. Ironically enough, the image they use to set up their geometric equations focuses on the Middle East. An interesting coincidence.

View attachment 142460
​

On top of all this, remember that both the US and Israel were flying reconnaissance drones near and even over some regions of Iran.

1. As a Chinese, regardless of my views, I am not qualified to comment on political affairs between Iran and Western countries, especially on an international platform like PDF.

2. The dispute between you and me is "Do the US/Israel/Western countries have the ability to conduct 24/7, high-precision, seamless surveillance of Iran?" ------ You believe they do. I believe they do not. I have presented relevant evidence to support my point of view, but you have not.
I will not comment on hostile actions between Iran and the United States/Iran/Western countries. We will only discuss actions that are technically feasible.

In the 1990s, China lacked extensive satellite reconnaissance capabilities. Faced with pressure from Western nations, the PLA instituted systematic anti-satellite reconnaissance training. At the time, every PLA soldier received relevant knowledge and training.

Today, while the satellite reconnaissance capabilities of the United States, Israel, and other Western nations have improved, they remain intermittent rather than seamless, 24/7 surveillance. So, Iran could try to learn from the PLA's decades-old ASAT training manuals. They're still effective.

As for a broader political analysis, I have my own views, but they are not appropriate to discuss here.

 

[muhammed45]

I don't know if you follow Mohammad Nadimi's videos or not, but I agree with him that something really big is happening in the world and Iran is at the forefront of this war due to our years of standing against the current world order and our strategic location.

It has always been so. WW1, WW2 etc. All the powers had an eye on Iranian lands. We are also waiting, Ararat, Nakhchivan, Herat etc etc.

Iran's location can be a huge advantage in our favor or a serious misery for us. Depends on our own strength.

I am not the kind of person that feels obligated to support anybody. I don't support the Pahlavis. I don't support the Ayatollahs. I only support Iran and Iranians. Iran went through a period of isolation and resistance, but did not achieve nuclear deterrence. That's treason. A country with the sort of threats that we face must be armed with nuclear weapons and actively improve its yield/mass ratio but alas, I don't think anybody would listen to what Iranians say.

Don't forget, Khamenei said, we will respond to them, the same way they threaten us at war. Which means if they use nuclear, we will do it too.

Is this empty word? No, obviously not. He has ordered IRGC to prepare the ground for it. If west could take on Iran, Trump will not lose the chance. he tried and then immediately asked for a ceasefire on behalf of its regional dog.

Big changes will take place and it will be in our favor. Easy to predict, just read the history of 2 world wars.

 

[ShapurII]

It has always been so. WW1, WW2 etc. All the powers had an eye on Iranian lands. We are also waiting, Ararat, Nakhchivan, Herat etc etc.

Iran's location can be a huge advantage in our favor or a serious misery for us. Depends on our own strength.


Don't forget, Khamenei said, we will respond to them, the same way they threaten us at war. Which means if they use nuclear, we will do it too.

Is this empty word? No, obviously not. He has ordered IRGC to prepare the ground for it. If west could take on Iran, Trump will not lose the chance. he tried and then immediately asked for a ceasefire on behalf of its regional dog.

Big changes will take place and it will be in our favor. Easy to predict, just read the history of 2 world wars.

I mean wasn't Iran invaded in both WWI and WWII? Why do you think these big changes will be in our favor? History proves otherwise.

Being in the Middle East is a curse. Switzerland and Sweden declared neutrality and were left alone, Iran was invaded and impoverished in both world wars. We even suffered one of the greatest famines in history in World War I.

Anyway, I hope we would be able to show some actual deterrence before things get out of hand. We're now in a path that is not reversible. We need to prepare for all-out war and do some inside cleaning in our political circles to remove people with surrender mentality from power.

 

[kastor ville]

I wrote in another thread that DPRK got lucky in a way that old communist stupid leadership died out naturally and was replaced with much younger and nationalist aggressive leader at the tight time. Unfortunately for IRI, its weak leader and his sycophants just kept on ruling for ~40 years and are still going on. I was reading today Araghchi saying that Iran may withdraw from NPT in future, lol, somebody tell the fool that these "international agreements" are traps and no body on earth take them seriously except for IRI. Before IRI, Saddam, Gaddafi, Assad, took them seriously as well, guess what happened to them.

The way these IRI's weak, peace loving anti-Iranian doves operate, at this stage it will be literally be a miracle if IRI system of Government dies out before loosing some part of Iran.

If he was world wise, and old...it would be ok, but he's not, and he is woefully out of touch. He didn't go to school studying policy and strategic management, so thats why the hierarchy of our government is so convulted....no one branch is in charge and yet everyone gets a vote on the policies.

The Muslim world cannot get rid of this one shit stain.
Pathetic.

Muslim world is the problem.....it's been a problem since the 1970's. They're their own worst enemies. The leadership of those counties decided it's better to stay in power no matter the cost to the region or to their own people.....you can't buy better, more complete corruption than that. Unfortunately Iran is getting to that level...the IRI is getting more corrupt due to foreign actions. The West helps that corruption with its policies. The people don't have the luxury to critique the government, they're too busy trying. To survive.

 

[Shafagh]

If he was world wise, and old...it would be ok, but he's not, and he is woefully out of touch. He didn't go to school studying policy and strategic management, so thats why the hierarchy of our government is so convulted....no one branch is in charge and yet everyone gets a vote on the policies.

Muslim world is the problem.....it's been a problem since the 1970's. They're their own worst enemies. The leadership of those counties decided it's better to stay in power no matter the cost to the region or to their own people.....you can't buy better, more complete corruption than that. Unfortunately Iran is getting to that level...the IRI is getting more corrupt due to foreign actions. The West helps that corruption with its policies. The people don't have the luxury to critique the government, they're too busy trying. To survive.

This is what I am afraid of, some of them will burn Iran down without hesitation, just so they can keep power, these Khalkhali types still linger in the halls of government. They are destroying the country.

On top of all this, they have a big mouth and talk tough against the whole world.

 

[RΛIDEN]

Urgent | Commander of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters: Our armed forces are in full readiness and we are monitoring the enemy's movements with high precision.

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Great...that's how it should be. Continue to monitor with precision 24/7...365 days from Space > Air > Land > Sea > Underwater hereon.

 

[Persian Gulf]

According to Araghchi, uranium enrichment has come to a halt and Iran's 60%-enriched uranium has been trapped under Fordow and is now inaccessible.

I don't think Araghchi said this? First part is true, but not the second.