Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

It is not impossible. Trump is a populist. Even if he is compromised, his voters have his ear. At the very least, Iran could distance him from participating in Netanyahu's wars. You need to give your adversary what they want... just not the way they want it.

It's worth a shot. Just give up enrichment, wait until he leaves office. It is a bitter pill to swallow, but other countries have negotiated under far worse circumstances. Get several billions in sanction relief, reduce tensions a little bit, deal with Israel one on one. Stabilize the economy, dump a few billion back into the air force and focus on one or two projects, use F5, Owj, Sofre Mahi, as base.

Send officials to CNN and Fox news and get a message across to Americans, MAGA especially. Half of them are turning on Israel already. Say what you want about Zarif, but he did a great job painting Iran as the victim, and appealing to more liberal minded western audiences.

Israelis and Neo-cons see Iran regime change as "kill the supreme leader and senior leadership" and the regime will end. Islamic Republic is not a single unitary one party dictatorship; it is an institution. There are factions and institutions that divide power. They think the subsequent power vaccuum would tear the country apart. It is possible, I am not naiive. But to be honest, Iranians are not arabs, who turn against themselves at the flip of a coin. I trust they can rebuild government. If Israel, attacks, then even easier for Iran.

Every country that they toppled has had governance concentrated around 1 single authority i.e Saddam, Gaddafi, Assad etc. This led to a complete anarchy that I don't expect to occur in Iran.

Put together younger, smarter minds. People from Sepah/Artesh step up, put together a technocratic council, rebuild the country. There are people like this on the principalist and the reform side.

At least Iran would emerge from this as the only country to have smacked Israel around and survived.

Way too late for that.

First of all, there's no uranium enrichment left to give up.
According to Araghchi, uranium enrichment has come to a halt and Iran's 60%-enriched uranium has been trapped under Fordow and is now inaccessible.

Secondly, the Europeans want to extend the snapback mechanism for another 6 months to have more control over Iran, i.e. they want to dictate Iran what to do and what not to do and extend this 6 months by 6 months. If Iran says no, they will reimpose all sanctions on Iran.

Meanwhile, the illegitimate Ayatollah regime is completely silent on why they passed the JCPOA with the snapback mechanism in 20 minutes. Nobody wants to explain how a terrible deal like this was passed in 2015 by the parliament in merely 20 minutes. They want to blame this on the reformists, but nobody buys that anymore.
I even remember that one of the parliament members, it was Motahari if I remember correctly, said that even 20 minutes for passing the JCPOA was too long.

Imagine a deal where your enemy can reimpose all sanctions any moment they want to without even needing to prove that you have violated the deal, while they haven't even fulfilled their end of the bargain.

Thirdly, Trump sees the Ayatollahs of Iran as the US #1 enemy in this part of the world. The idea that Trump would give them a free pass while they have been nearly defeated is delusional.

We are in the middle of a war now. Both sides at this point understand that negotiations are just a cover to buy time to prepare for the next round.

 

[Shafagh]

Way too late for that.

First of all, there's no uranium enrichment left to give up.
According to Araghchi, uranium enrichment has come to a halt and Iran's 60%-enriched uranium has been trapped under Fordow and is now inaccessible

No it's not. Look, Trump was ready to lift sanctions on oil sales to China immediately after the war. They could have gotten the ball rolling.

Of course Araghchi is going to say that. Why would he admit it if the uranium was moved?

Secondly, the Europeans want to extend the snapback mechanism for another 6 months to have more control over Iran, i.e. they want to dictate Iran what to do and what not to do and extend 6 months by 6 months

Does Iran have a choice? If it isn't Europe dictating, it is the Americans.

Imagine a deal where your enemy can return all sanctions any moment they want to without even needing to prove that you have violated the deal, while they haven't even fulfilled their end of the bargain.

That's why they should have pulled all liquid assets out of western bank accounts at the outset of the JCPOA. Convert it to gold, and other non fiat resource. Spend it right away on equipment for microprocessors, start some purchases of Chinese arms.

Thirdly, Trump sees the Ayatollahs of Iran as the US number one enemy in this part of the world. The idea that Trump would give them a free pass while they have been nearly defeated is delusional.

Well, that is the Ayatollah's fault. In any case, he needs to step down and there needs to be new management. Again, regime change in Iran will not look like regime change in arab countries.

Iran needs sharp, young, grounded, knowledgeable leaders. Not mullahs who spent majority of their lives studying in some seminary in Qom, and then shittily leading troops in human wave attacks in the 80s.

Look at Mahmoud Alavi, Ismaeil Khatib. Just look at them! Did anyone really think they would be effective running ministry of intelligence?

You know, it makes me angry, but they spent their years cracking down on young people for bad hijab, hardline clerics trying to ban pet dogs, harassing university students. In the end, the biggest threats traitors came from within Sepah, broke ass illegal immigrants from Afghanistan, and themselves for pissing off young people to the extent they started setting fire to the streets.

Iran has the people to take these roles and put some agreement together with the west. If not, then they will at least rebuild the country. I read a post where someone said even if Iran becomes ruins, I love this ruins. There is no shortage of people like this.

I know I am digressing from your 3rd point, sorry. I ranted too much.

 

[Michael]

If Iran had nukes, the Israelis and Americans may tone down support for separatist groups in Iran, but they would absolutely continue sabotage attacks, cyber attacks, bombings, assassinations.
None of those activities would warrant a nuclear response, and if Iran did respond with a nuclear weapon, it would be the end. You don't think U.S and Israelis would retaliate with a nuclear weapon?

In international politics, when you are in a weak position, it is best to say less and do more.

The power of speech comes from your own hard power.
When your hard power is strong enough, you don't even need to speak; a glance is enough to strike fear into your opponents.
When your hard power is weak, no matter how hard you try to shout, no one will take your warnings seriously.

In the field of nuclear weapons, you either completely abandon nuclear weapons or you detonate one to show the world.

Iran has taken the most foolish approach. It constantly threatens the world that it will build nuclear weapons, but in reality, it has made no progress. Despite years of nuclear sanctions, it still does not possess nuclear weapons......

 

[ShapurII]

No it's not. Look, Trump was ready to lift sanctions on oil sales to China immediately after the war. They could have gotten the ball rolling.

Of course Araghchi is going to say that. Why would he admit it if the uranium was moved?

That was a PR move. You cannot take what Trump says as facts. There's no evidence that China asked Trump for permission to increase its oil purchase from Iran.

Because they have 24/7 satellite coverage with <5cm resolution. Do you seriously think they cannot find out if the uranium had been moved or not?
Do you remember the photo Trump posted a few years ago of a failed missile launch in Iran? The resolution was extremely good. So good that even fine prints on the missile could be read.

Does Iran have a choice? If it isn't Europe dictating, it is the Americans.

That's why they should have pulled all liquid assets out of western bank accounts at the outset of the JCPOA. Convert it to gold, and other non fiat resource. Spend it right away on equipment for microprocessors, start some purchases of Chinese arms.


Well, that is the Ayatollah's fault. In any case, he needs to step down and there needs to be new management. Again, regime change in Iran will not look like regime change in arab countries.

Iran needs sharp, young, grounded, knowledgeable leaders. Not mullahs who spent majority of their lives studying in some seminary in Qom, and then shittily leading troops in human wave attacks in the 80s.

Look at Mahmoud Alavi, Ismaeil Khatib. Just look at them! Did anyone really think they would be effective running ministry of intelligence?

You know, it makes me angry, but they spent their years cracking down on young people for bad hijab, hardline clerics trying to ban pet dogs, harassing university students. In the end, the biggest threats traitors came from within Sepah, broke ass illegal immigrants from Afghanistan, and themselves for pissing off young people to the extent they started setting fire to the streets.

Iran has the people to take these roles and put some agreement together with the west. If not, then they will at least rebuild the country. I read a post where someone said even if Iran becomes ruins, I love this ruins. There is no shortage of people like this.

I know I am digressing from your 3rd point, sorry. I ranted too much.

Agreed.
If we had a normal regime, Iran would've had a choice. But with this regime, I don't think so. Iran's nuclear adventures seem over at this point. I hope I'll be proven wrong soon, but it seems so.

 

[Shafagh]

In international politics, when you are in a weak position, it is best to say less and do more.

The power of speech comes from your own hard power.
When your hard power is strong enough, you don't even need to speak; a glance is enough to strike fear into your opponents.
When your hard power is weak, no matter how hard you try to shout, no one will take your warnings seriously.

In the field of nuclear weapons, you either completely abandon nuclear weapons or you detonate one to show the world.

Iran has taken the most foolish approach. It constantly threatens the world that it will build nuclear weapons, but in reality, it has made no progress. Despite years of nuclear sanctions, it still does not possess nuclear weapons......

THAT'S WHAT I AM TRYING TO SAY!

I read some posts here, someone saying "next time, Jews won't be spared"

I am new here, I don't want to attack people and get banned, but seriously what the hell are you saying?!? When is next time???? Just shut up and focus on rebuilding the country.

With this attitude, they will continue bombing Iran until it looks like Afghanistan, and when the population is completely poor and destitute, these people will say "Well we are supposed to live like this, because capitalist lifestyle of wealth and success is haram" and then continue to say "we will punch America/Israel in the mouth" while Israelis and Americans bonk them on the head with a big stick again and again.

 

[Shafagh]

That was a PR move. You cannot take what Trump says as facts. There's no evidence that China asked Trump for permission to increase its oil purchase from Iran.

Because they have 24/7 satellite coverage with <5cm resolution. Do you seriously think they cannot find out if the uranium had been moved or not?
Do you remember the photo Trump posted a few years ago of a failed missile launch in Iran? The resolution was extremely good. So good that even fine prints on the missile could be read.


Agreed.
If we had a normal regime, Iran would've had a choice. But with this regime, I don't think so. Iran's nuclear adventures seem over at this point. I hope I'll be proven wrong soon, but it seems so.

I read the outline of initial nuclear offer to Iran. Money to help Iran build modern civilian reactors, guarantees of uranium for medical isotopes/ civilian energy. This may not look like much, but it would have helped Iran more than Iran staying a threshold state. Just sign an agreement and get wealthy and powerful. THEN YOU CAN DO WHAT YOU WANT.

I am starting to believe the Shah was doing this, and was slowly starting to turn against Israel. Some in Washington and Tel Aviv were probably breathing a sigh of relief when he was deposed.

 

[Michael]

Because they have 24/7 satellite coverage with <5cm resolution. Do you seriously think they cannot find out if the uranium had been moved or not?
Do you remember the photo Trump posted a few years ago of a failed missile launch in Iran? The resolution was extremely good. So good that even fine prints on the missile could be read.

Don't be fooled by this pseudo-scientific political propaganda.

To date, no country has the capability to conduct high-precision satellite surveillance of a specific region 24/7. The United States and China do indeed possess formidable satellite surveillance capabilities. However, they still have surveillance gaps.

 

[ShapurII]

I read the outline of initial nuclear offer to Iran. Money to help Iran build modern civilian reactors, guarantees of uranium for medical isotopes/ civilian energy. This may not look like much, but it would have helped Iran more than Iran staying a threshold state. Just sign an agreement and get wealthy and powerful. THEN YOU CAN DO WHAT YOU WANT.

They will never give Iran a fair, good deal. They said all of those things to give Iran some save facing reasons for destroying the IR-40 reactor.

Iran is no longer in a position to negotiate with the West. It's too late for that. Iran needs nuclear deterrence and needs to go down the paths of countries like China, Pakistan and even North Korea for a while. But the Ayatollahs are too corrupt to pursue such a path. How can you advocate for that in the IR regime when your Aghazadeh is living a luxurious life in the West? The system is too corrupt at this point. It has a revolutionary facade but in reality, it's an oligarchy-based regime with capitalist agendas.

I am starting to believe the Shah was doing this, and was slowly starting to turn against Israel. Some in Washington and Tel Aviv were probably breathing a sigh of relief when he was deposed.

Contrary to what some brain-dead people here say, the Shah was turning against the Jews. He even clearly talked about this in his interview with CNN, where he said that the Jewish lobby had too much power in the US.
His problem with Israel wasn't however an ideological one. He believed that the Israeli lobby was hindering Iran's growing military power by blocking Iran's requests for weapons from the US.

 

[ShapurII]

Don't be fooled by this pseudo-scientific political propaganda.

To date, no country has the capability to conduct high-precision satellite surveillance of a specific region 24/7. The United States and China do indeed possess formidable satellite surveillance capabilities. However, they still have surveillance gaps.

The US has nearly 10,000 LEO satellites expected to rise to 50K by 2035. I don't see why it's impossible for them to achieve nearly real-time extremely high resolution surveillance over a small region like central Iran.

 

[Shafagh]

They will never give Iran a fair, good deal. They said all of those things to give Iran some save facing reasons for destroying the IR-40 reactor.

Iran is no longer in a position to negotiate with the West. It's too late for that. Iran needs nuclear deterrence and needs to go down the paths of countries like China, Pakistan and even North Korea for a while. But the Ayatollahs are too corrupt to pursue such a path. How can you advocate for that in the IR regime when your Aghazadeh is living a luxurious life in the West? The system is too corrupt at this point. It has a revolutionary facade but in reality, it's an oligarchy-based regime with capitalist agendas.


Contrary to what some brain-dead people here say, the Shah was turning against the Jews. He even clearly talked about this in his interview with CNN, where he said that the Jewish lobby had too much power in the US.
His problem with Israel wasn't however an ideological one. He believed that the Israeli lobby was hindering Iran's growing military power by blocking Iran's requests for weapons from the US.

So... what now? Military coup?

 

[ShapurII]

So... what now? Military coup?

I have a feeling that we're heading towards the worst case scenario.

And the worst case scenario in my opinion is likely to be something like a new Saddam-style war with one of our neighbors or a coalition.

 

[Michael]

The US has nearly 10,000 LEO satellites expected to rise to 50K by 2035. I don't see why it's impossible for them to achieve nearly real-time extremely high resolution surveillance over a small region like central Iran.

This involves some specialized knowledge about artificial Earth satellites. I will try to answer your question in simple terms. You can look up more specialized knowledge on your own.

Artificial Earth satellites.
The higher its orbit, the closer it is to Earth's rotational speed. Therefore, its relative movement speed compared to a fixed location on the Earth's surface is slower.
When it is in GEO orbit (36,000 km), it is stationary relative to the Earth's surface.
When it is in LEO orbit (<2,000 km), it orbits the Earth approximately every 90 minutes.
The lower the orbit of an artificial satellite, the greater the gravitational pull it experiences from the Earth. As a result, it must constantly consume energy to maintain its orbital altitude. The corresponding result is that its lifespan is shorter.

Reconnaissance satellites require good reconnaissance capabilities. The lower their orbit, the better the performance of their reconnaissance equipment.

If we need to achieve 24/7 high-precision, seamless monitoring of a certain region over the long term, we need a huge monitoring network consisting of a large satellite constellation. Moreover, the satellites in the constellation need to be constantly updated.

If this is solely for military purposes, it is clearly a huge waste of funds.

Both the United States and China now have emergency satellite launch systems. When military purposes require it, a batch of military satellites can be launched through an emergency rapid launch mechanism. However, under normal circumstances, neither country's military has a large, seamless military reconnaissance satellite constellation on standby.

Jilin-1. It is civilian satellite. It monitors the entire globe, revisiting any location 35-37 times per day, with each visit lasting approximately 10 minutes. If the detector angle or satellite attitude is adjusted, the visit time can be increased to 20-30 minutes, but this consumes more energy. However, there are still gaps in its surveillance capabilities.

 

[FUB]

Captured! This is how the narrative is shaped. They create fake accounts that write extensively to promote their narrative. At the same time, they control all of the powerful governments in the West. The executive office, Congress, the majority of the courts, tech, and academia. It is the biblical prophecy happening right in front of the world.

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[ShapurII]

This involves some specialized knowledge about artificial Earth satellites. I will try to answer your question in simple terms. You can look up more specialized knowledge on your own.

Artificial Earth satellites.
The higher its orbit, the closer it is to Earth's rotational speed. Therefore, its relative movement speed compared to a fixed location on the Earth's surface is slower.
When it is in GEO orbit (36,000 km), it is stationary relative to the Earth's surface.
When it is in LEO orbit (<2,000 km), it orbits the Earth approximately every 90 minutes.
The lower the orbit of an artificial satellite, the greater the gravitational pull it experiences from the Earth. As a result, it must constantly consume energy to maintain its orbital altitude. The corresponding result is that its lifespan is shorter.

Reconnaissance satellites require good reconnaissance capabilities. The lower their orbit, the better the performance of their reconnaissance equipment.

If we need to achieve 24/7 high-precision, seamless monitoring of a certain region over the long term, we need a huge monitoring network consisting of a large satellite constellation. Moreover, the satellites in the constellation need to be constantly updated.

If this is solely for military purposes, it is clearly a huge waste of funds.

Both the United States and China now have emergency satellite launch systems. When military purposes require it, a batch of military satellites can be launched through an emergency rapid launch mechanism. However, under normal circumstances, neither country's military has a large, seamless military reconnaissance satellite constellation on standby.

Currently, the largest surveillance satellite constellation in operation worldwide is “Jilin-1.” It is civilian satellite. It monitors the entire globe, revisiting any location 35-37 times per day, with each visit lasting approximately 10 minutes. If the detector angle or satellite attitude is adjusted, the visit time can be increased to 20-30 minutes, but this consumes more energy. However, there are still gaps in its surveillance capabilities.

Your answer is pretty basic and hardly goes beyond what is taught in high school physics in most countries.

If we use a 500km LEO satellite in a circular orbit as a baseline, it would pass 2-4 times over Iran every 24 hours. Its field of view would be enough to cover all of central Iran and each time it will be over Iran for about 10 minutes. So, in theory, you'll need fewer than 150 satellites in the orbit to achieve nearly real-time reconnaissance ability over most of Iran. I don't know about the Chinese capabilities, but the US has 10,000 LEO satellites. That's more than enough to achieve nearly real-time high-res reconnaissance.

The lifespan of LEO satellites is shorter mainly due to space debris, not because of energy issues in the orbit. If you achieve a perfect circular orbit, you don't experience much gravitational loss of energy because W = F.d and the gravitational pull towards the center is perpendicular to the movement of the satellite (tangential).

 

[Shafagh]

Your answer is pretty basic and hardly goes beyond what is taught in high school physics in most countries.

If we use a 500km LEO satellite in a circular orbit as a baseline, it would pass 2-4 times over Iran every 24 hours. Its field of view would be enough to cover all of central Iran and each time it will be over Iran for about 10 minutes. So, in theory, you'll need fewer than 150 satellites in the orbit to achieve nearly real-time reconnaissance ability over most of Iran. I don't know about the Chinese capabilities, but the US has 10,000 LEO satellites. That's more than enough to achieve nearly real-time high-res reconnaissance.

The lifespan of LEO satellites is shorter mainly due to space debris, not because of energy issues in the orbit. If you achieve a perfect circular orbit, you don't experience much gravitational loss of energy because W = F.d and the gravitational pull towards the center is perpendicular to the movement of the satellite (tangential).

Even if this were true, send 20 trucks to Fordo. Then send them all in different directions. Do you think they will be able to pinpoint which truck has the uranium via satellite?