Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

People were naive and believed Iran is going to defeat the US by destroying a couple empty bases and bomb some refineries. The US and Israel owns the global financial system and literally prints the worlds reserve currency. The military budget alone is 1T. They don’t give a f about some damaged bases and refineries that Arabs will pay for anyways.

I think people thought that the threat of causing mass casualties to bases and oil fields would keep the U.S. from doing anything.

But I think the west began changing their calculations once Iran stopped responding to Israeli strikes in Syria. It culminated in the lack of response to Solemani assaination.

For 20 years no US president assassinated Solemani despite having multiple opportunities (Israel had a lock on him when he was with Imad in early 2000’s but only got approval to kill Imad. They also had a lock on his convoy in Iraq years later). But the thinking was killing Solemani would start a war. Thus he was untouchable.

When Trump came in and threw risk out the window and acted like a brute then his actions actually changed how the West perceived Iran. And suddenly the threats of retaliation and mass destruction were just rhetoric and they kept pushing the envelope.

So it’s hard to believe how Iran who has avoided any large scale confrontation for 30+ years is suddenly going to adopt an Israeli mentality of scorched earth.

The Khomeini clan, the Rafsanjani clan, the Larijani clan, the Khamenai clan, the Qalibaf clan, etc etc mostly care about power retention and thriving in their sandbox. The ones who carried the revolutionary spirit died in Syria and Lebanon and Iraq and Yemen the last 25 years.

 

[Immortals]

2. Begin seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil.

I think that’s might be the next plan. The ‘Venzenula plan’ of not letting Iran export oil and blockade the Persian gulf. Choke the Iranian economy further.

Make Iran decide between war or starvation. And like you said, if you get a strike window on Khamenai than have Israel do it (avoids US from directly killing a head of state).

 

[mangekyo]

I think people thought that the threat of causing mass casualties to bases and oil fields would keep the U.S. from doing anything.

But I think the west began changing their calculations once Iran stopped responding to Israeli strikes in Syria. It culminated in the lack of response to Solemani assaination.

For 20 years no US president assassinated Solemani despite having multiple opportunities (Israel had a lock on him when he was with Imad in early 2000’s but only got approval to kill Imad. They also had a lock on his convoy in Iraq years later). But the thinking was killing Solemani would start a war. Thus he was untouchable.

When Trump came in and threw risk out the window and acted like a brute then his actions actually changed how the West perceived Iran. And suddenly the threats of retaliation and mass destruction were just rhetoric and they kept pushing the envelope.

So it’s hard to believe how Iran who has avoided any large scale confrontation for 30+ years is suddenly going to adopt an Israeli mentality of scorched earth.

The Khomeini clan, the Rafsanjani clan, the Larijani clan, the Khamenai clan, the Qalibaf clan, etc etc mostly care about power retention and thriving in their sandbox. The ones who carried the revolutionary spirit died in Syria and Lebanon and Iraq and Yemen the last 25 years.

I agree. Which is why I say khamenei was never a good fit for khomenist ideology. He should have moved on. True revolutionaries/nationalists were Soleimani and his friends. Not those who used sanctions to enrich themselves and sent billions to their kids who live like billionaires in the west.

 

[Watandar]

I think that’s might be the next plan. The ‘Venzenula plan’ of not letting Iran export oil and blockade the Persian gulf. Choke the Iranian economy further.

Make Iran decide between war or starvation. And like you said, if you get a strike window on Khamenai than have Israel do it (avoids US from directly killing a head of state).

But I do think the flaw in this plan is if the Iranian tankers are not easy to seize and have motivated guards who shoot back, then Trump will abandon the campaign after a few weeks.

Khamenei, I think Trump has made it clear he wants him dead. But that doesn't meant Khamenei cannot survive.

 

[mangekyo]

Khamenei, I think Trump has made it clear he wants him dead. But that doesn't meant Khamenei cannot survive.

His own friends will kill him once oil income no longer reaches their pockets and their children’s.

 

[SolarWarden]

This is how ignorant the Iranian leadership is... To avoid strikes by Orange man all they have to do is say in public what an alpha male Trump is and how he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize but faggy woke Euro liberals stole it from him. Say that Orange man has big hands and is always right about everything and should send troops to Minnesota to crack down on his enemies there. They say cht like this not only he will not strike Iran but he will lift all sanctions and might even strike at Bibi for not agreeing on his Gaza plan.

 

[hussain0216]

What is the end game....to come out of these protests and the attacks or coming attacks and then what?
Did you know, the idea behind the Carrier Strike Group sailing towards Iran is not to hit Iran but to stop the oil sales?
I bet you didn't.
What happens when the little money coming in gets choked off? The country will fall into disarray...the people will get more desperate. The current govt has no plan for any of it. It's just a matter of time before it falls organically, anyway.
They need to go peacefully, they need to transition. I prefer we don't have a violent fall....they can arrange it so the people will calm down, they can announce we will have a referendum on a new constitution, and let the people vote for new govt and structure. .

I understand what you are saying

But this is forced change on the wrong side of a barrel of a gun

That would be catastrophic, for a large national to bend in such a manner

It would be one more step back for Iran

Iran needs reform, it needs to represent it's population both conservative and religious and other, but that needs to be a gradual internal movement

It can't just flip from one extreme to another, or be forced by outsiders

That's what's caused Iran so much tension and pain from the beginning

 

[SolarWarden]

This is how ignorant the Iranian leadership is... To avoid strikes by Orange man all they have to do is say in public what an alpha male Trump is and how he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize but faggy woke Euro liberals stole it from him. Say that Orange man has big hands and is always right about everything and should send troops to Minnesota to crack down on his enemies there. They say cht like this not only he will not strike Iran but he will lift all sanctions and might even strike at Bibi for not agreeing on his Gaza plan.

Also publicly say that Greenland belongs to America and make up some proof that you found some ancient cht that proves it belongs to America especially under the leadership of Orange man.

 

[Persian Gulf]

remember the very conservative hardline Jalili got 14 million votes in the last Iranian election in only 2024

IRI still maintains significant support within Iranian society. probably 20+ million

once you exclude the politically apathetic and < 16 years old, it's a big proportion

 

[ToddE]

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Told ya .... the shit is more internal than external.

 

[ToddE]

remember the very conservative hardline Jalili got 14 million votes in the last Iranian election in only 2024

IRI still maintains significant support within Iranian society. probably 20+ million

once you exclude the politically apathetic and < 16 years old, it's a big proportion

Thats because Jalili was the face of hardliners in 2024. If IRGC is indeed behind this massive oil revenue siphoning (there is no other explanation of deficit) then they will indeed put out new face of hardliners for conservative voters.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Told ya .... the shit is more internal than external.

IRI should switch very fast to a System like Russia, Multi-Party managed/guided democracy, hybrid regime.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[hussain0216]

IRI should switch very fast to a System like Russia, Multi-Party managed/guided democracy, hybrid regime.

Democracy isn't all that great

People are idiots.
Many don't understand national interests or complicated issues

Worst still they are easily manipulated to vote for issues that are unimportant or for individuals who are sold out

Even in the west democracy is becoming chaotic, see MAGA, Brexit, and the plethora of right wing populist parties in Europe

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Democracy isn't all that great

People are idiots.
Many don't understand national interests or complicated issues

Worst still they are easily manipulated to vote for issues that are unimportant or for individuals who are sold out

Even in the west democracy is becoming chaotic, see MAGA, Brexit, and the plethora of right wing populist parties in Europe

That's why I'm proposing the Russian model, which is not a liberal democracy.