Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[mangekyo]

Khamenei, I think Trump has made it clear he wants him dead. But that doesn't meant Khamenei cannot survive.

His own friends will kill him once oil income no longer reaches their pockets and their children’s.

 

[SolarWarden]

This is how ignorant the Iranian leadership is... To avoid strikes by Orange man all they have to do is say in public what an alpha male Trump is and how he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize but faggy woke Euro liberals stole it from him. Say that Orange man has big hands and is always right about everything and should send troops to Minnesota to crack down on his enemies there. They say cht like this not only he will not strike Iran but he will lift all sanctions and might even strike at Bibi for not agreeing on his Gaza plan.

 

[hussain0216]

What is the end game....to come out of these protests and the attacks or coming attacks and then what?
Did you know, the idea behind the Carrier Strike Group sailing towards Iran is not to hit Iran but to stop the oil sales?
I bet you didn't.
What happens when the little money coming in gets choked off? The country will fall into disarray...the people will get more desperate. The current govt has no plan for any of it. It's just a matter of time before it falls organically, anyway.
They need to go peacefully, they need to transition. I prefer we don't have a violent fall....they can arrange it so the people will calm down, they can announce we will have a referendum on a new constitution, and let the people vote for new govt and structure. .

I understand what you are saying

But this is forced change on the wrong side of a barrel of a gun

That would be catastrophic, for a large national to bend in such a manner

It would be one more step back for Iran

Iran needs reform, it needs to represent it's population both conservative and religious and other, but that needs to be a gradual internal movement

It can't just flip from one extreme to another, or be forced by outsiders

That's what's caused Iran so much tension and pain from the beginning

 

[SolarWarden]

This is how ignorant the Iranian leadership is... To avoid strikes by Orange man all they have to do is say in public what an alpha male Trump is and how he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize but faggy woke Euro liberals stole it from him. Say that Orange man has big hands and is always right about everything and should send troops to Minnesota to crack down on his enemies there. They say cht like this not only he will not strike Iran but he will lift all sanctions and might even strike at Bibi for not agreeing on his Gaza plan.

Also publicly say that Greenland belongs to America and make up some proof that you found some ancient cht that proves it belongs to America especially under the leadership of Orange man.

 

[Persian Gulf]

remember the very conservative hardline Jalili got 14 million votes in the last Iranian election in only 2024

IRI still maintains significant support within Iranian society. probably 20+ million

once you exclude the politically apathetic and < 16 years old, it's a big proportion

 

[ToddE]

Told ya .... the shit is more internal than external.

 

[ToddE]

remember the very conservative hardline Jalili got 14 million votes in the last Iranian election in only 2024

IRI still maintains significant support within Iranian society. probably 20+ million

once you exclude the politically apathetic and < 16 years old, it's a big proportion

Thats because Jalili was the face of hardliners in 2024. If IRGC is indeed behind this massive oil revenue siphoning (there is no other explanation of deficit) then they will indeed put out new face of hardliners for conservative voters.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Told ya .... the shit is more internal than external.

IRI should switch very fast to a System like Russia, Multi-Party managed/guided democracy, hybrid regime.

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[hussain0216]

IRI should switch very fast to a System like Russia, Multi-Party managed/guided democracy, hybrid regime.

Democracy isn't all that great

People are idiots.
Many don't understand national interests or complicated issues

Worst still they are easily manipulated to vote for issues that are unimportant or for individuals who are sold out

Even in the west democracy is becoming chaotic, see MAGA, Brexit, and the plethora of right wing populist parties in Europe

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Democracy isn't all that great

People are idiots.
Many don't understand national interests or complicated issues

Worst still they are easily manipulated to vote for issues that are unimportant or for individuals who are sold out

Even in the west democracy is becoming chaotic, see MAGA, Brexit, and the plethora of right wing populist parties in Europe

That's why I'm proposing the Russian model, which is not a liberal democracy.

 

[Bharatah]

did anyone really think Nasrallah was safe forever? it was an open secret that he lived in a bunker in Dahiyeh. Israel can track Iranian diplomats and IRGC members going to meet him quite easily

and Hezbollah cannot build a massive deep reinforced bunker in Beirut without anyone spotting it, so it was always going to be vulnerable

that Nazi Israel Katz admitted on Israeli TV after the war that they tried to kill Khamenei but couldn't find him. after the Soroka hospital strike Israel said Khamenei cannot be allowed to continue to exist, so we can be sure they tried their best to find and kill him in the final days of the war.

he probably cut off contact with everyone except 1-2 trusted advisors and then moved between safe houses or underground tunnel networks

but sure, nobody should underestimate Israel and the US, just because Israel couldn't kill him in June last year does not mean the US (or even Israel, which learns quickly) cannot kill him in 2026

Mossad planted a bomb in the bunker in Dahiyeh, even as they planted bombs in bunkers in Iran. Then they bombed from skies to cover up the evidence of what really happened and create a narrative that it was an airplane bombing. This is the reason why Israel didn't destroy the same bunker years ago... they would have done it 5/10/15 years ago if they could, but their spys had failed to plant the explosives at that time. Similarly, the pagers were the work of spies infiltrated in various countries.

 

[ToddE]

I want to share your optimism but I have my doubts.
Firstly, 'Iran' is not as monolithic as you seem to be implying.

Having a socioeconomically balanced society does not equate to "monolith" so I do not know why are you using that word because it does not apply to any group of humans even the homogeneous tiny nations. Iran like few others is an ancient society that already has gone through multiple internal socio-economic reformations throughout centuries. Turkey, Russia, Iran, China, Germany etc are similar cases. These countries faced massive devastating wars for elongated periods of times in about last century but survived because internally they had local majority rule and a balanced functional society, reformed again and again over centuries. Unlike them colonial powers created countries like the ones I named in my previous post and few others all were broken by internal problems because of inherent socio-economic imbalances because they never got the time to undergo reformations or may be the colonial powers designed them that way. One can say the breaking event was their own "finding the balance" event. This usually keeps on going until nobody has any need to liberate from state in bulk because they do not need to. Few minor nuances here and there will always exist. Iranic Kurdistan's pseudo breakway from ex baathist Shia Arab Iraq is one such example where internal socio-economic imbalance was purged out. Iraq had been a Irano-Turkic occupied field for almost 8 centuries otherwise, created in 1930s by UK. Majority ruled Iraq now is more balanced and has no internal threat atleast, country has a trade surplus and is on one of the top 40 exporters on planet (100+ Billion USD export revenues). One can argue Afghanistan and Caucasus losses of Iranic Empires kinda helped Iran because points of exploitable weaknesses were removed.

There are definitely fissures to be exploited. Pakistan also has those fissures and so does India. And I imagine the USA after 1776 also had the fissures, only if there were to be effectively exploited. Even in Alberta of a prosperous Canada, some think of breaking away from the underperforming losers in other Provinces, and that secession is possible one day!
Secondly, even in ethnically monolithic societies--by that I mean the same religion, sect, ethnicity, fissures are present where marginalized groups of people, with some 'charismatic' leader leading them, if assured of a better life, fall for foreign interventions and agendas.
It is all just the human nature!

US had a devastating civil war because colonial population had different socio-economic ideas. Elites solved their interrnal problems through massive socio-economic reforms.

 

[ToddE]

IRI should switch very fast to a System like Russia, Multi-Party managed/guided democracy, hybrid regime.

Iran is heading for a Secular Military Dictatorship+Technocracy run on massive petro revenues, kinda similar to current Russia. Removal of old generals, and marvelous but ideological Soleimani helped pave the way. Khamenei's departure from power will be the final nail in the coffin of Islamic Iran.

 

[ToddE]

Looks like I was right that IRI-US-Israel saga will die soon or will be punitive cosmetic exchange at best. Immature doom gamers here were predicting apocalypse and missiles and nukes. Trump understood the trap IRI-Chinese-Russians were laying for US. Jews understood so they talked to Larijani through Moscow as per media reports. Trump is still not over Maduro's fiasco where first bottle of crude oil still has to reach US coasts from his newly administered country. World is twisted.