Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

did anyone really think Nasrallah was safe forever? it was an open secret that he lived in a bunker in Dahiyeh. Israel can track Iranian diplomats and IRGC members going to meet him quite easily

and Hezbollah cannot build a massive deep reinforced bunker in Beirut without anyone spotting it, so it was always going to be vulnerable

that Nazi Israel Katz admitted on Israeli TV after the war that they tried to kill Khamenei but couldn't find him. after the Soroka hospital strike Israel said Khamenei cannot be allowed to continue to exist, so we can be sure they tried their best to find and kill him in the final days of the war.

he probably cut off contact with everyone except 1-2 trusted advisors and then moved between safe houses or underground tunnel networks

but sure, nobody should underestimate Israel and the US, just because Israel couldn't kill him in June last year does not mean the US (or even Israel, which learns quickly) cannot kill him in 2026
Mossad planted a bomb in the bunker in Dahiyeh, even as they planted bombs in bunkers in Iran. Then they bombed from skies to cover up the evidence of what really happened and create a narrative that it was an airplane bombing. This is the reason why Israel didn't destroy the same bunker years ago... they would have done it 5/10/15 years ago if they could, but their spys had failed to plant the explosives at that time. Similarly, the pagers were the work of spies infiltrated in various countries.
 
I want to share your optimism but I have my doubts.
Firstly, 'Iran' is not as monolithic as you seem to be implying.

Having a socioeconomically balanced society does not equate to "monolith" so I do not know why are you using that word because it does not apply to any group of humans even the homogeneous tiny nations. Iran like few others is an ancient society that already has gone through multiple internal socio-economic reformations throughout centuries. Turkey, Russia, Iran, China, Germany etc are similar cases. These countries faced massive devastating wars for elongated periods of times in about last century but survived because internally they had local majority rule and a balanced functional society, reformed again and again over centuries. Unlike them colonial powers created countries like the ones I named in my previous post and few others all were broken by internal problems because of inherent socio-economic imbalances because they never got the time to undergo reformations or may be the colonial powers designed them that way. One can say the breaking event was their own "finding the balance" event. This usually keeps on going until nobody has any need to liberate from state in bulk because they do not need to. Few minor nuances here and there will always exist. Iranic Kurdistan's pseudo breakway from ex baathist Shia Arab Iraq is one such example where internal socio-economic imbalance was purged out. Iraq had been a Irano-Turkic occupied field for almost 8 centuries otherwise, created in 1930s by UK. Majority ruled Iraq now is more balanced and has no internal threat atleast, country has a trade surplus and is on one of the top 40 exporters on planet (100+ Billion USD export revenues). One can argue Afghanistan and Caucasus losses of Iranic Empires kinda helped Iran because points of exploitable weaknesses were removed.

There are definitely fissures to be exploited. Pakistan also has those fissures and so does India. And I imagine the USA after 1776 also had the fissures, only if there were to be effectively exploited. Even in Alberta of a prosperous Canada, some think of breaking away from the underperforming losers in other Provinces, and that secession is possible one day!
Secondly, even in ethnically monolithic societies--by that I mean the same religion, sect, ethnicity, fissures are present where marginalized groups of people, with some 'charismatic' leader leading them, if assured of a better life, fall for foreign interventions and agendas.
It is all just the human nature!

US had a devastating civil war because colonial population had different socio-economic ideas. Elites solved their interrnal problems through massive socio-economic reforms.
 
IRI should switch very fast to a System like Russia, Multi-Party managed/guided democracy, hybrid regime.

Iran is heading for a Secular Military Dictatorship+Technocracy run on massive petro revenues, kinda similar to current Russia. Removal of old generals, and marvelous but ideological Soleimani helped pave the way. Khamenei's departure from power will be the final nail in the coffin of Islamic Iran.
 
Looks like I was right that IRI-US-Israel saga will die soon or will be punitive cosmetic exchange at best. Immature doom gamers here were predicting apocalypse and missiles and nukes. Trump understood the trap IRI-Chinese-Russians were laying for US. Jews understood so they talked to Larijani through Moscow as per media reports. Trump is still not over Maduro's fiasco where first bottle of crude oil still has to reach US coasts from his newly administered country. World is twisted.
 
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After 45 years of sanctions, assassinations, cyber attacks, and maximum pressure campaigns, Iran is still standing - more defiant, more capable, and more deeply integrated into Russian-Chinese alliance networks than ever before.

Colonel Thorne reveals how America's strategy of pressure and regime change has achieved the opposite of its goals, creating an Iranian civilization that sees total resistance as the only path to survival against existential threats.

Iran's asymmetric capabilities can now shut down 40% of global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, activate proxy forces across multiple countries simultaneously, and conduct cyber warfare against critical infrastructure worldwide - making their resistance a global economic threat regardless of military outcomes.

The real danger isn't whether Iran will back down from American pressure (they won't), but how their refusal to surrender has transformed a regional issue into a test case for global power competition between the US, Russia, and China.

This strategic miscalculation has created conditions where Iranian defiance becomes Russian and Chinese success in challenging American hegemony, making compromise impossible because everything now represents a credibility test that affects global power relationships.
 
IRI should switch very fast to a System like Russia, Multi-Party managed/guided democracy, hybrid regime.

Russia is built around Putin. Once he is gone no one can command the respect Putin has inside Russia today or the cohesiveness.

Iran should absolutely not emulate Russia. It’s an oligarchy with massive corruption up and down the leadership and chain of command.

Russia should never have struggled as much as it did in Ukraine if it was a healthy system with competent military officers.
 
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Arabs will be Arabs
 
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After 45 years of sanctions, assassinations, cyber attacks, and maximum pressure campaigns, Iran is still standing - more defiant, more capable, and more deeply integrated into Russian-Chinese alliance networks than ever before.

Colonel Thorne reveals how America's strategy of pressure and regime change has achieved the opposite of its goals, creating an Iranian civilization that sees total resistance as the only path to survival against existential threats.

Iran's asymmetric capabilities can now shut down 40% of global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, activate proxy forces across multiple countries simultaneously, and conduct cyber warfare against critical infrastructure worldwide - making their resistance a global economic threat regardless of military outcomes.

The real danger isn't whether Iran will back down from American pressure (they won't), but how their refusal to surrender has transformed a regional issue into a test case for global power competition between the US, Russia, and China.

This strategic miscalculation has created conditions where Iranian defiance becomes Russian and Chinese success in challenging American hegemony, making compromise impossible because everything now represents a credibility test that affects global power relationship


But I believe this is AI...... I tried looking up Colonel Thorne. There is no such person. And if you look at the video, it does look like AI. Don't get me wrong what it said still rings true.
 
Breaking News Report: Senior Iranian diplomat at U.N. European Headquarters has defected and requested asylum in Switzerland, reports Iran International. Alireza Jeyrani Hokmabad has the rank of Minister at the Iranian UN Mission in Geneva.
Not shared or seen widely, so take at as unconfirmed.
 
Breaking News Report: Senior Iranian diplomat at U.N. European Headquarters has defected and requested asylum in Switzerland, reports Iran International. Alireza Jeyrani Hokmabad has the rank of Minister at the Iranian UN Mission in Geneva.
Not shared or seen widely, so take at as unconfirmed.
Also Khamenei is in Moscow!!!
 
I think people thought that the threat of causing mass casualties to bases and oil fields would keep the U.S. from doing anything.

But I think the west began changing their calculations once Iran stopped responding to Israeli strikes in Syria. It culminated in the lack of response to Solemani assaination.

For 20 years no US president assassinated Solemani despite having multiple opportunities (Israel had a lock on him when he was with Imad in early 2000’s but only got approval to kill Imad. They also had a lock on his convoy in Iraq years later). But the thinking was killing Solemani would start a war. Thus he was untouchable.

When Trump came in and threw risk out the window and acted like a brute then his actions actually changed how the West perceived Iran. And suddenly the threats of retaliation and mass destruction were just rhetoric and they kept pushing the envelope.

So it’s hard to believe how Iran who has avoided any large scale confrontation for 30+ years is suddenly going to adopt an Israeli mentality of scorched earth.

The Khomeini clan, the Rafsanjani clan, the Larijani clan, the Khamenai clan, the Qalibaf clan, etc etc mostly care about power retention and thriving in their sandbox. The ones who carried the revolutionary spirit died in Syria and Lebanon and Iraq and Yemen the last 25 years.

Exactly! Iran deconstructed its own deterrence... did not appreciate the predicament... feigned a play and got played instead.
 
Democracy isn't all that great

People are idiots.
Many don't understand national interests or complicated issues

Worst still they are easily manipulated to vote for issues that are unimportant or for individuals who are sold out

Even in the west democracy is becoming chaotic, see MAGA, Brexit, and the plethora of right wing populist parties in Europe

The orange clown is exhibit A against popularity contest... another episode of American idol with AIPAC filling panel of judges.
Exhibit A against merit, rule of law, decency, truth, trust and dare I say evolution! There you go Darwin... the new species is self inflicted orange! Adamant and degenerate!
 
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So, the leadership knows what's coming. Strictly from Iran's POV: Why not fire the first bullet in that case?

I just don't understand this restraint.

Wouldn't you take action first if someone armed with a gun is charging at you, fully aware that they intend to kill you?

IRI is either ready to 'absorb' the attack and move on or they are genuinely scared of the US.

Either way, doing nothing and waiting for the missiles to hit them can't be the answer. Deterrence must be re-established.
 
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So, the leadership knows what's coming. Strictly from Iran's POV: Why not fire the first bullet in that case?

I just don't understand this restraint.

Wouldn't you take action first if someone armed with a gun is charging at you, fully aware that they intend to kill you?

IRI is either ready to 'absorb' the attack and move on or they are genuinely scared of the US.

Either way, doing nothing and waiting for the missiles to hit them can't be the answer. Deterrence must be re-established.


siz bilirsinizmi ki IRGC/sepah ve reformist hokumat etirazlari bashlatmagh uchun pulu gizlaedib ... teghreben 1110-115 Billion USD ? ... rahbarliq ise yalniz qalmishdir
 

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