Falcon29
Elite Member
It's not about special events. Trump is a narcassist. He does not like long term wars. Trump prefers quick operations where he can achieve something quickly then get back to being center of attention and spoken out for other achievements/drama.No attack will take place during Olympics.
If there was a suistained campaign in Iran, he would be livid being questioned about it on a daily basis while having rest of his legacy be ignored. He will get most flack if it becomes a forever war.
The operation US did in Yemen was more so lead by his administration and US allies. Also meant to test US Navy capabilities before any attack on Iran. Those Yemeni strikes at the sea were actually hurting shipping insurance rates and greatly increasing costs, damaging US logistics industry.
Now keep in mind compared to Israel, the number of people killed in Yemen were around 150-300. During those two months. Israel killed 30,000 people in Gaza from Oct-December. Shows you how satanic and evil Israel is, and that Israel literally sought to exterminate an entire nation...
US was doing average of 30-50 strikes per day in Yemen.
I don't know how many naval assets that required. US military claimed to hit 1,000 targets during that duration.
US was sensitive to the humanitarian crisis in Yemen and general state of being in Yemen. And didn't go out to get people.
In Iran there would be a mix of refuelers and bombers. US would commit to hundreds of strikes a day for two months if Trump signs off on a big operation. Iran would have to fight back with it's full force. Iran has much bigger capacity to hurt US forces and stunt global energy supply than Houthi's do.
Trump is unlikely to commit to such a large operation that could drag on.
His safest bet is Israel does a repeat attack then both sides call it quits until later in summer 2026. And US restarts talks again while Iran is in weaker position.
Obviously US military doctrine has changed. They will not do regime change forever wars anymore. Analytics play big part in today's decisions. They'll try to come up with something rapid and most cost effective. If they can't, they simply won't commit to it. It seems likely they simply don't have good options when it comes to regime change.





