Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

If they take Qeshm, how does that help them open the Strait of Hormuz? Iran can launch small, cheap drones from central Iran into the Strait of Hormuz endlessly, and small constant drones will likely be sufficient to disrupt shipping, even with military escorts.

I think the goal is a Hostomel Airport playbook.



Drop airborne into Qeshm maybe with or without special forces first. And also Kharg. Have them secure the runways on both islands. Land planes and equipment to set up SHORADs.

Have marines dock at Chabhar maybe even with Indian naval escort. Use Chabhar port as a beachhead to begin clearing the coastline and building a buffer zone and work your way up the coast.

I’m not saying it’s a smart idea. I’m not saying it will work. But the Pentagon has plans for every scenario you can think of. While the Generals will say the risks, the president and his band of stooges will dismiss them and think this time is different.

 

[Immortals]

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[Immortals]

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[Persian Gulf]

Assuming they can hold the island and bring their personnel, CAS and ships there (big assumption), the narrow passage in the Strait of Hormuz which is used by most of these shipping lanes is barely 30km due to the shallow depth of the Persian Gulf.

The US has been practicing to attack Iranian speed boats with helicopters and A-10 for years.

Kharg is of more strategic importance for Iran but it is on the other side of the Persian Gulf and it hardly helps them keep the strait open, which seems to be their main objective here. What other choice would they go for if not Qeshm?

But Iran doesn't use Chabahar or even Qeshm to disrupt shipping. It can do this by firing drones or missiles from anywhere in Iran. Capturing Qeshm exposes US troops to Iranian fire and is a propaganda win, but I don't see how it helps them open the Strait.

The only possible objective I can foresee is that they plan to use the islands as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait (i.e., we will return the islands if/when you open the Strait).

I don't think Kharg is a plausible target. It's too small and deep into the Persian Gulf. And IRI would not hesitate to destroy the oil depots there to harm the US troops. IRI is resilient and can survive with lower oil exports for a while. the US has suppressed air defences successfully in south Iran, though, so they could land in Chabahar.

I just don't see how any form of ground invasion goes well for the US. maybe I'm wrong and Trump has a genius master plan that involves a limited ground invasion for a clear objective and with a clean exit plan, but I doubt it.

 

[Aggregate]

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A video to learn the psyche of the enemy ..

Unfortunately, after watching this, turns out israelis are total psychopaths, just based on their basic mentality (we all know they are, but one has to listen to this to understand the real meaning of the term).. This is Ex israeli interim president and he's a total monster of a human in the way he thinks and talks .. just in the first 30 mins, he mentioned things like:

• We destroy our adversaries and strive to humiliate them as they die
• We just hunt and kill, we do not think about it
• We did unimaginable crimes against Palestinians in the last 70 years, they were all unimaginable crimes against humanity, but it does not allow them to fight back
• We are opportunists, we look at an opportunity and go for it, moral or non-moral does not matter
• Nethanyahu is brilliant, you meet with him and he will empty your pockets and you will never know it ... and this is why we love him as a leader

... and it just gets worse form there ...

These people are actually bone chillingly psychopaths ... only if Kennedy had been able to stop them from getting nukes, too bad they got to him before that. They will surely do all they can to kill any humanity on Earth.

 

[Immortals]

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Sounds like a jet powered drone is being used in Bahrain attacks

 

[Persian Gulf]

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seems KSA is keen to join the war against Iran (formally). Ansarallah is ready to teach them some more lessons.

 

[Immortals]

But Iran doesn't use Chabahar or even Qeshm to disrupt shipping. It can do this by firing drones or missiles from anywhere in Iran. Capturing Qeshm exposes US troops to Iranian fire and is a propaganda win, but I don't see how it helps them open the Strait.

The only possible objective I can foresee is that they plan to use the islands as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait (i.e., we will return the islands if/when you open the Strait).

I don't think Kharg is a plausible target. It's too small and deep into the Persian Gulf. And IRI would not hesitate to destroy the oil depots there to harm the US troops. IRI is resilient and can survive with lower oil exports for a while. the US has suppressed air defences successfully in south Iran, though, so they could land in Chabahar.

I just don't see how any form of ground invasion goes well for the US. maybe I'm wrong and Trump has a genius master plan that involves a limited ground invasion for a clear objective and with a clean exit plan, but I doubt it.

I think Saudi Arabia + PGCC + Jordan are about to join the war in one major blitzkrieg operation to seize the islands while U.S. tries to clear the coast on the ground.

You will have over 500+ aircraft constantly bombing everywhere along the coastline. Given the amount of air power, large troop formations will be impossible and Iran will have to rely on throwing rockets and drones from a safe distance.

I think Trump is cooking something up, he’s cleared his schedule from Friday onward. And the Arabs have been talking about getting involved and taking a hardline stance against the Iranian government.

 

[That_Guy]

Precisely...a credible AD deterrent is a must have in modern times, ceding your airspace is a death sentence.

Well you can't really compare both here...Ukraine has had the might of the Western world behind it.

It didn't until the Ukrainians proved the Russian's didn't have the capability to take Ukraine.

Ukraine was left to the wolves in the beginning, remember? It took the Europeans and the Americans months to decide if they wanted to send any sort of aid, and even longer to actually get that aid going.

 

[Shags101]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/price-of-brent-crude-oil-jumps-back-above-100-a-barrel/

Well that band aid came off quick

 

[That_Guy]

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seems KSA is keen to join the war against Iran (formally). Ansarallah is ready to teach them some more lessons.

No, I doubt it.

It actually seems that both the Saudis and Iranians are backing off from each other.

I could be wrong, but I think Iranian strikes on Saudi territory may no longer happen going forward.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I think Saudi Arabia + PGCC + Jordan are about to join the war in one major blitzkrieg operation to seize the islands while U.S. tries to clear the coast on the ground.

You will have over 500+ aircraft constantly bombing everywhere along the coastline. Given the amount of air power, large troop formations will be impossible and Iran will have to rely on throwing rockets and drones from a safe distance.

I think Trump is cooking something up, he’s cleared his schedule from Friday onward. And the Arabs have been talking about getting involved and taking a hardline stance against the Iranian government.

We can't rule anything out. But I don't see that coming. The Arabs want to respond but they don't want to get involved in such a major war.

Even in the worst case scenario that you are right, Iran retains the ability to fire missiles and drones at the Arab states' desalination plants and power plants. They are extremely reliant on water desalination plants, Iran is not. Their power grids are very centralised and reliant on a few very big power stations - Irans is not.

 

[ShapurII]

But Iran doesn't use Chabahar or even Qeshm to disrupt shipping. It can do this by firing drones or missiles from anywhere in Iran. Capturing Qeshm exposes US troops to Iranian fire and is a propaganda win, but I don't see how it helps them open the Strait.

The only possible objective I can foresee is that they plan to use the islands as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait (i.e., we will return the islands if/when you open the Strait).

I don't think Kharg is a plausible target. It's too small and deep into the Persian Gulf. And IRI would not hesitate to destroy the oil depots there to harm the US troops. IRI is resilient and can survive with lower oil exports for a while. the US has suppressed air defences successfully in south Iran, though, so they could land in Chabahar.

I just don't see how any form of ground invasion goes well for the US. maybe I'm wrong and Trump has a genius master plan that involves a limited ground invasion for a clear objective and with a clean exit plan, but I doubt it.

Honestly, Iran's winning card in this case is the Persian Gulf missile. It may not be able to sink an aircraft carrier, but it can undoubtedly sink any tanker any day.

I have good answers for intercepting Iranian drones, anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles or speedboats. But the Persian Gulf missile is really the game changer here.

 

[Immortals]

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[That_Guy]

Something doesnt add up, Israel allowing an Iranian government official fly to Pak for peace?? I am seriously??

Diplomacy.

The Americans probably told the Israelis to not shoot the plane down.