Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Magi]

There's no real path for an Iranian military victory unless the US decides to launch a land invasion and videos of FPVs hitting US teenagers begin to be posted on the internet. The US navy can just sit in the Indian ocean forever; Iran had and has no answer to the naval blockade. Hitting PGCC oil facilities turned out to not matter because the investors and markets cared more about Trump's tweets than drones hitting tankers. The jews don't care if their semitic arab cousins get bombed anyways. The path to a nuke has been destroyed in the short term so can't really break out either.

I believe a military victory is possible for Iran. Iran can use overt and covert force to shape things to its needs. It is likely to outlast all opponents in the region in a hot war or fire at will scenario. UAE gets uppity? Hit them. Hit them hard. Enable the PMF to take over Iraq. Support Bahraini and Shia of the oil regions of Saudi with arms and training. Have all the Emirs crawl on their knees to Tehran to kiss the ring and literally submit. This includes mr. bone saw.

US is not keen on maintaining the naval blockade. Otherwise the blockade would never have been lifted. Not only did they lift it, they reportedly purchased Iranian oil. They need oil volumes flowing out. They need to rebuild their reserves. Iran can easily throttle it. Market manipulation won't work once they begin to run short of physical oil. A naval blockade by the US is cutting off your nose to spite your face.

But Iranian political elites (at least the Zarif Rouhani group) would rather submit by offering heavy concessions similar to what they offered leading up to February 28. Araghchi's right hand man just suggested offering oil and gas concessions to the US if you can believe it. If Khamenei shuffles the judiciary branch, it can cut the reformists to size and allow a proper conclusion to this.

At the same time the stakes are too high for the empire to just give up, as the petro dollar and GCC investment of oil revenues in the west underpin the current world order that began with the Portuguese colonization 500 years ago.

Edit. Controlling the entirety of the energy reserves of the region can catapult Iran to the same level as the US or China. Imagine a Petro Rial. Petro Dollar or Petro Yuan are not the only options.

 

[Lulldapull]

There's no real path for an Iranian military victory unless the US decides to launch a land invasion and videos of FPVs hitting US teenagers begin to be posted on the internet. The US navy can just sit in the Indian ocean forever; Iran had and has no answer to the naval blockade. Hitting PGCC oil facilities turned out to not matter because the investors and markets cared more about Trump's tweets than drones hitting tankers. The jews don't care if their semitic arab cousins get bombed anyways. The path to a nuke has been destroyed in the short term so can't really break out either.

but where can the US and Israel invade from?

From Dubai? fast attack craft and commandeered Arab vessels under massive air cover?

or from Azher Bhaija mongolian border? bring in assorted colluddzz muzlim mercenaries no?

Its one or de other no?

Or is it both?

 

[Fatman17]

Azzhooles in Tel Aviv and elsewhere are truly fearful if this materializes.

Sadly Muslim world is always reactive/on defensive mode. Bad policy with horrible consequences.

Take an initiative at least for once.

Carrots are being dangled to Turks as of now and Rawalpindi is being continuously praised by Washington in an uncanny manner - Only to stop them from formalising this alliance.

We'll discuss this here and related tidbits

Speculation so far

 

[Lulldapull]

Azzhooles in Tel Aviv and elsewhere are truly fearful if this materializes.

Sadly Muslim world is always reactive/on defensive mode. Bad policy with horrible consequences.

Take an initiative at least for once.

Carrots are being dangled to Turks as of now and Rawalpindi is being continuously praised by Washington in an uncanny manner - Only to stop them from formalising this alliance.

We'll discuss this here and related tidbits

Oh bhai what alliance? Everybody other than Iran on Jew life support no?

 

[Magi]

Kurdish and Baluchi rebels have been activated simultaneously. Are we entering the next phase?

 

[BigMela2onin]

I believe a military victory is possible for Iran. Iran can use overt and covert force to shape things to its needs. It is likely to outlast all opponents in the region in a hot war or fire at will scenario. UAE gets uppity? Hit them. Hit them hard. Enable the PMF to take over Iraq. Support Bahraini and Shia of the oil regions of Saudi with arms and training. Have all the Emirs crawl on their knees to Tehran to kiss the ring and literally submit. This includes mr. bone saw.

Iran couldn't even deplete tiny Kuwait's interceptors and UAE was directly attacking Iran petrochemical facilties by the end of the war. If PMF starts a civil war in Iraq they will be bombed to bits by USAF; their capabilities are limited to launching one or two drones at a time and not much more. How are you planning to train and arm a Shia uprising in SA or Bahrain? At the end of the day arabs are semites like the jews and are much closer to them than Iranians. What you are suggesting is not possible with just missiles and drones that mostly get intercepted anyways. If it was, the blockade wouldn't have been as effective as it was.

US is not keen on maintaining the naval blockade. Otherwise the blockade would never have been lifted. Not only did they lift it, they reportedly purchased Iranian oil. They need oil volumes flowing out. They need to rebuild their reserves. Iran can easily throttle it. Market manipulation won't work once they begin to run short of physical oil. A naval blockade by the US is cutting off your nose to spite your face.

The US will never physically run short of oil just like Iran won't. They can easily institute price controls to keep prices down at the end of the day. Will they? Maybe or maybe not give that their elites now prioritize their private wealth over the continuation of the US as a functional state. Even if they don't, Americans will complain loudly on social media but at the end of the day will accept any amount of inflation or worsening QOL standards without any resistance.

But Iranian political elites (at least the Zarif Rouhani group) would rather submit by offering heavy concessions similar to what they offered leading up to February 28. Araghchi's right hand man just suggested offering oil and gas concessions to the US if you can believe it. If Khamenei shuffles the judiciary branch, it can cut the reformists to size and allow a proper conclusion to this.

Khamenei Jr. is a nobody, he wasn't even considered a candidate for SL before this was. He was picked to be a symbolic puppet for whoever is truly in charge now.
Anyways it seems the IRGC is for now still carrying out operations regardless of the desires of any reformists. But even then, ships are still taking the risk of trying to cross and the US can probably attrit the IRGC's ability to carry out those operations faster than those radars and launchers can be replaced. Continuation of the current military situation doesn't favor Iran. The problem is Iran can't target or hit any USN ships beyond the PG so it has not way of changing the status quo either.

 

[Magi]

Iran couldn't even deplete tiny Kuwait's interceptors and UAE was directly attacking Iran petrochemical facilties by the end of the war. If PMF starts a civil war in Iraq they will be bombed to bits by USAF; their capabilities are limited to launching one or two drones at a time and not much more. How are you planning to train and arm a Shia uprising in SA or Bahrain? At the end of the day arabs are semites like the jews and are much closer to them than Iranians. What you are suggesting is not possible with just missiles and drones that mostly get intercepted anyways. If it was, the blockade wouldn't have been as effective as it was.

The US will never physically run short of oil just like Iran won't. They can easily institute price controls to keep prices down at the end of the day. Will they? Maybe or maybe not give that their elites now prioritize their private wealth over the continuation of the US as a functional state. Even if they don't, Americans will complain loudly on social media but at the end of the day will accept any amount of inflation or worsening QOL standards without any resistance.

Khamenei Jr. is a nobody, he wasn't even considered a candidate for SL before this was. He was picked to be a symbolic puppet for whoever is truly in charge now.
Anyways it seems the IRGC is for now still carrying out operations regardless of the desires of any reformists. But even then, ships are still taking the risk of trying to cross and the US can probably attrit the IRGC's ability to carry out those operations faster than those radars and launchers can be replaced. Continuation of the current military situation doesn't favor Iran. The problem is Iran can't target or hit any USN ships beyond the PG so it has not way of changing the status quo either.

Kuwait despite its size has been the fulcrum of western power projection in the region since the British empire. It did not run out of interceptors because the US did not run out of interceptors. By all accounts the latter seemed very close by the time the MOU was signed.

Re. PMF, the USAF has not proven effective against guerilla forces historically, see Vietnam, Afghanistan, Yemen. PMF have a direct land line to Iran which makes them even more resilient and potent. However, here are complicating factors like Muqtada for example. None of this will be easy. The path to becoming a superpower usually is not easy. That is expected. Let's remember the KC-135s that were targeted over Iraq presumably by the PMF. Or the Kuwaiti F16 pilot shooting down the USAF F15s.

The Houthis became steadily more powerful under USAF and SA aerial bombings. That's why attiring Iran to the point of eliminating their control over the Hormuz doesn't seem realistic. Geography heavily favors Iran and all they need to do is keep firing drones at tankers.

As far as Arab tendencies, this has been the case since the Babylonian semites. But Iranians managed to control it in the past. A shared religion maybe a catalyst this time.

US will not run out of oil, but will lose influence to Iran once all or some Asian countries come begging to Iran to get their fuel, "cooking gas" and fertilizer.

We don't know much about Khamenei Jr. at all. It is yet to be seen if he will consolidate power. A lot hinges on the quality of leadership at times like this. Can he, will he reign in the reformists? We shall see.

 

[Professor Jiang]

Kurdish and Baluchi rebels have been activated simultaneously. Are we entering the next phase?

This sort of thing happens frequently in Iran.

 

[Flotilla]

Convince me why the USAF needs to be based in the PG countries.

You know It is not the same to take off with 6 tons of bombs from Qatar or even Saudí Arabia that take off from Cyprus or Israel and fly for hours before entering Iranian air space.

Fly times consumes more fuel, more flight hours, requires more Tankers in the Air (something you can count. At least 6 at the Air at the same time). They need to be closer to the Iranian Air space (and therefore easier to shoot down).

Not to mention fatigue in crews and crazy logístics. No one US C5/17 will land in Moron Air base or Rota.

All the campaign has been a failure and the logistical hurdles of serving hundreds of miles away from the front just makes operations expensiver and dangerous. USAF just lost two KC135 in the Air and half of dozen in Persian Gulf.

 

[Ali_Baba]

So, can anybody explain in layman terms what Iran has achieved by signing the MoU so far?

From all I read in the news, it seems that the negotiations are nothing but a sham and bound to fail. Iran's economy is still tanking just like during the war.

Does Iran want to be attacked again during negotiations? 2 times hasn't been enough yet? There should be a third time?

Iran is militarily the weaker state. There, I said it. Is that a surprise to you? Do you think Iran is a superpower ??

That is reality that you don't seem to understand or accept. Iran cannot pre-empt the USA and in doing so, achieve any military objectives that would stop an attack because Iran's systems lack the precision for that to be done effectively, so why pre-empt ?? What will be achieved ?? Explain what you think a pre-emptive strike will militarily achieve, since you are soo keen on it ?

The USA is a super power with deep deep military resources, Iran is not. What Iran's strategy has to be, is survive the strikes and preserve as much as possible, stretch out the war and uncertainty for as long as possible to cause the maximum economic damage globally, which it is doing successfully. Global economic damage causes political pressure from the USA's allies on the USA itself to stop the war. The world strategic oil reserves have only enough stock for 4weeks left, and it will take months to refill them. That is why the USA wants this done with quickly.

I don't understand why you do not understand the tactical and strategic military situation and what Iran's capabilities are and therefore what it's choices.

Iran has played this perfectly so far, perfectly.

 

[Lulldapull]

Kuwait despite its size has been the fulcrum of western power projection in the region since the British empire. It did not run out of interceptors because the US did not run out of interceptors. By all accounts the latter seemed very close by the time the MOU was signed.

Re. PMF, the USAF has not proven effective against guerilla forces historically, see Vietnam, Afghanistan, Yemen. PMF have a direct land line to Iran which makes them even more resilient and potent. However, here are complicating factors like Muqtada for example. None of this will be easy. The path to becoming a superpower usually is not easy. That is expected. Let's remember the KC-135s that were targeted over Iraq presumably by the PMF. Or the Kuwaiti F16 pilot shooting down the USAF F15s.

The Houthis became steadily more powerful under USAF and SA aerial bombings. That's why attiring Iran to the point of eliminating their control over the Hormuz doesn't seem realistic. Geography heavily favors Iran and all they need to do is keep firing drones at tankers.

As far as Arab tendencies, this has been the case since the Babylonian semites. But Iranians managed to control it in the past. A shared religion maybe a catalyst this time.

US will not run out of oil, but will lose influence to Iran once all or some Asian countries come begging to Iran to get their fuel, "cooking gas" and fertilizer.

We don't know much about Khamenei Jr. at all. It is yet to be seen if he will consolidate power. A lot hinges on the quality of leadership at times like this. Can he, will he reign in the reformists? We shall see.

Good post Magi. Agree with all yous say here.

Iran's winning by default, cuz this ain't a US war to fight.

 

[Lulldapull]

This sort of thing happens frequently in Iran.

yeah but both these rebels are phuss no?

 

[Pakistani Dragon]

Stop changing the subject.

What's changed?

We were talking about taking out US forces from Persian Gulf.
Don´t bring your own falsehoods to the debate.

The Americans are launching airstrikes on Iran. Whether these are carried out directly from the US, Europe, Israel or Diego Garcia, doesn't matter. They bomb Iran as and when they like.

Is that confusing for you or something?

I told you NO USAF inside Persian Gulf. They´re operating outside Persian Gulf air space, I brought you a live map of the last days.

I told you again NO US Navy inside Persian Gulf.

Why are you expecting US military to operate according to Iranian wishes and strategies?

That's like saying Iranian warships should sail through the Suez Canal like it did in 2011 and attack Israel.

27/02/2011: Iran warships sail via Suez Canal amid Israeli concern: BBC

How about sending Iranian warships to the US coast and taking revenge for Khamenei's assassination?

10/06/2021: Iran sends warship on rare Atlantic mission amid Venezuela speculation: The Guardian

Is Khamenei Jr going out and about like he used to or is he still hiding two months on?

If no, why is that? Donald Trump isn't hiding and neither is Benjamin Netanyahoo.

And you brought again your incredible conclusions.

And I again, bring you new valid statements about what happened in the war;

Despite GCC states’ relatively high interception rates of Iranian projectiles, Iran’s success in striking high-value assets reveals the limits of their air- and missile-defence architecture. Some GCC officials and analysts, moreover, suspect that the US has prioritised the defence of Israel over the GCC in the early phase of the war.

And the map is clear;

https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/images-delta/comment/analysis/2026/03/damage-incurred-from-iranian-strikes-on-gcc-states.png

And these are just targets of GCC countries.

The US military targets are much worse.

https://gvwire.com/2026/03/13/at-least-17-us-sites-damaged-in-war-with-iran-analysis-shows/

It has also been reported that at least 42 aircraft, including F-15 and F-35 fighter jets, 24 MQ-9 Reaper drones, and an A-10 attack plane, have been destroyed or damaged so far.

20 US Bases Hit, Billions Lost – Iran's Revenge -

Iran strikes on US bases across the Middle East have reportedly caused major damage, exposing Pentagon vulnerabilities and

themorningtelegraph.com

So much blabber.

08/04/2026: Ceasefire announced.
27/05/2026: The United States carries out airstrikes on Iran.
21/06/2026: The US carries out air and sea launched strikes on Iran.
26/06/2026: The US military launches airstrikes on Iran.
27/06/2026: The US Navy and Air Force fighter aircraft launched airstrikes on 10 targets in Iran.

So basically no. It was Irán who slapped US face twice. In June 2025 and in march 2026.

To the point that US wants a deal.

Please tell us how many Iranian missiles have landed in the US or its permanent military bases in 13 European countries? Go on.

If not they would be another round of 13.000 bombings of Irán.

Why would you want the US military to bomb Iran again?

Just so you know they stopped because they had ran out of the main military targets for which the US military had requested 6-8 weeks to complete.

In the next round, it is assumed that the US will carry out large scale military airstrikes on Iran's economic infrastructure like those that were carried out on Serbia in 1999 after NATO had ran out of military targets

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

Speculation so far

Would request you to reinstate my thread.

We can speculate on things as well. We can discuss the potential too.

4 meetings have already happened b/w R4 alliance...It's move beyond speculation now

Please reinstate my thread

 

[Flotilla]

What's changed?


The Americans are launching airstrikes on Iran. Whether these are carried out directly from the US, Europe, Israel or Diego Garcia, doesn't matter. They bomb Iran as and when they like.

Is that confusing for you or something?

Why are you expecting US military to operate according to Iranian wishes and strategies?

That's like saying Iranian warships should sail through the Suez Canal like it did in 2011 and attack Israel.

27/02/2011: Iran warships sail via Suez Canal amid Israeli concern: BBC

How about sending Iranian warships to the US coast and taking revenge for Khamenei's assassination?

10/06/2021: Iran sends warship on rare Atlantic mission amid Venezuela speculation: The Guardian

Is Khamenei Jr going out and about like he used to or is he still hiding two months on?

If no, why is that? Donald Trump isn't hiding and neither is Benjamin Netanyahoo.


So much blabber.

08/04/2026: Ceasefire announced.
27/05/2026: The United States carries out airstrikes on Iran.
21/06/2026: The US carries out air and sea launched strikes on Iran.
26/06/2026: The US military launches airstrikes on Iran.
27/06/2026: The US Navy and Air Force fighter aircraft launched airstrikes on 10 targets in Iran.


Please tell us how many Iranian missiles have landed in the US or its permanent military bases in 13 European countries? Go on.


Why would you want the US military to bomb Iran again?

Just so you know they stopped because they had ran out of the main military targets for which the US military had requested 6-8 weeks to complete.

In the next round, it is assumed that the US will carry out large scale military airstrikes on Iran's economic infrastructure like those that were carried out on Serbia in 1999 after NATO had ran out of military targets

Again. US forces are out of Persian Gulf. Whatever torsion or distortion you're doing is not related.

What is the point to reach an agreement with a destroyed nation?.

When I read your posts and half truths I understand why US Lost the war. As Tsun said, US lost in temples.

By the way. Last time Irán answer, two long range radar have been destroyed in Bahrein and Kuwait. So stop lying.