Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[BigMela2onin]

Iran showed restraint to gulf/israel/usa and pakistan did to india and it only gave a temporary victory while the enemy gets time to gather more ammo and do more propaganda and proxy crap.

There's no real path for an Iranian military victory unless the US decides to launch a land invasion and videos of FPVs hitting US teenagers begin to be posted on the internet. The US navy can just sit in the Indian ocean forever; Iran had and has no answer to the naval blockade. Hitting PGCC oil facilities turned out to not matter because the investors and markets cared more about Trump's tweets than drones hitting tankers. The jews don't care if their semitic arab cousins get bombed anyways. The path to a nuke has been destroyed in the short term so can't really break out either.

 

[atmi_bum]

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Azzhooles in Tel Aviv and elsewhere are truly fearful if this materializes.

Sadly Muslim world is always reactive/on defensive mode. Bad policy with horrible consequences.

Take an initiative at least for once.

Carrots are being dangled to Turks as of now and Rawalpindi is being continuously praised by Washington in an uncanny manner - Only to stop them from formalising this alliance.

We'll discuss this here and related tidbits

Israel has nothing to worry about. This is just another attempt at an alliance, a security architecture, a pact, a Muslim NATO, or whatever the flavor of the month is.

That Turkiye is involved is all you need to know. The only thing they do about Israel is bark but never bite. I don't expect it to go anywhere.

 

[hasssanali8998]

Israel has nothing to worry about. This is just another attempt at an alliance, a security architecture, a pact, a Muslim NATO, or whatever the flavor of the month is.

That Turkiye is involved is all you need to know. The only thing they do about Israel is bark but never bite. I don't expect it to go anywhere.

okay lol .

 

[Lulldapull]

Well for now it has caused orange to manage the fallout.
Pulling a fast one on Iran... while dealing the terms on the table... he's simultaneously going bilateral with third parties to play catch.
Arm twisting Oman to get another route going simultaneously where he wants to make buck. Having zion do a parallel deal with Lebanon to deal with Hezbollah. One major reshuffle is going on in the region. Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are being primed for destabilization. This all doesn't bode well for the whole region including gulf that now are playing with fire that will burn the whole thing to ashes. Zion could care less... they want perpetual war and THEY WANT DEATH AND DESTRUCTION OF THE WHOLE REGION. Fixated on their own project the only thing that can worry them is something that ends their joy ride.

Irans holding back from intervention in Syria now due to a hostile population.

The Syrian population is AL-Qaeda/ Daesh affiliated CIA/ mossad Muzz-Lim and its not favorable to Iran at all.

AL-Turkiya mongol is their guarantor, so they stay AL-Qaeda Muzz-Lim CIA jihadi and keep Iran out and prevent Iran from helping Hamas/ PIJ/ PFLP and Hezb.

 

[Magi]

There's no real path for an Iranian military victory unless the US decides to launch a land invasion and videos of FPVs hitting US teenagers begin to be posted on the internet. The US navy can just sit in the Indian ocean forever; Iran had and has no answer to the naval blockade. Hitting PGCC oil facilities turned out to not matter because the investors and markets cared more about Trump's tweets than drones hitting tankers. The jews don't care if their semitic arab cousins get bombed anyways. The path to a nuke has been destroyed in the short term so can't really break out either.

I believe a military victory is possible for Iran. Iran can use overt and covert force to shape things to its needs. It is likely to outlast all opponents in the region in a hot war or fire at will scenario. UAE gets uppity? Hit them. Hit them hard. Enable the PMF to take over Iraq. Support Bahraini and Shia of the oil regions of Saudi with arms and training. Have all the Emirs crawl on their knees to Tehran to kiss the ring and literally submit. This includes mr. bone saw.

US is not keen on maintaining the naval blockade. Otherwise the blockade would never have been lifted. Not only did they lift it, they reportedly purchased Iranian oil. They need oil volumes flowing out. They need to rebuild their reserves. Iran can easily throttle it. Market manipulation won't work once they begin to run short of physical oil. A naval blockade by the US is cutting off your nose to spite your face.

But Iranian political elites (at least the Zarif Rouhani group) would rather submit by offering heavy concessions similar to what they offered leading up to February 28. Araghchi's right hand man just suggested offering oil and gas concessions to the US if you can believe it. If Khamenei shuffles the judiciary branch, it can cut the reformists to size and allow a proper conclusion to this.

At the same time the stakes are too high for the empire to just give up, as the petro dollar and GCC investment of oil revenues in the west underpin the current world order that began with the Portuguese colonization 500 years ago.

Edit. Controlling the entirety of the energy reserves of the region can catapult Iran to the same level as the US or China. Imagine a Petro Rial. Petro Dollar or Petro Yuan are not the only options.

 

[Lulldapull]

There's no real path for an Iranian military victory unless the US decides to launch a land invasion and videos of FPVs hitting US teenagers begin to be posted on the internet. The US navy can just sit in the Indian ocean forever; Iran had and has no answer to the naval blockade. Hitting PGCC oil facilities turned out to not matter because the investors and markets cared more about Trump's tweets than drones hitting tankers. The jews don't care if their semitic arab cousins get bombed anyways. The path to a nuke has been destroyed in the short term so can't really break out either.

but where can the US and Israel invade from?

From Dubai? fast attack craft and commandeered Arab vessels under massive air cover?

or from Azher Bhaija mongolian border? bring in assorted colluddzz muzlim mercenaries no?

Its one or de other no?

Or is it both?

 

[Fatman17]

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Azzhooles in Tel Aviv and elsewhere are truly fearful if this materializes.

Sadly Muslim world is always reactive/on defensive mode. Bad policy with horrible consequences.

Take an initiative at least for once.

Carrots are being dangled to Turks as of now and Rawalpindi is being continuously praised by Washington in an uncanny manner - Only to stop them from formalising this alliance.

We'll discuss this here and related tidbits

Speculation so far

 

[Lulldapull]

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Azzhooles in Tel Aviv and elsewhere are truly fearful if this materializes.

Sadly Muslim world is always reactive/on defensive mode. Bad policy with horrible consequences.

Take an initiative at least for once.

Carrots are being dangled to Turks as of now and Rawalpindi is being continuously praised by Washington in an uncanny manner - Only to stop them from formalising this alliance.

We'll discuss this here and related tidbits

Oh bhai what alliance? Everybody other than Iran on Jew life support no?

 

[Magi]

Kurdish and Baluchi rebels have been activated simultaneously. Are we entering the next phase?

 

[BigMela2onin]

I believe a military victory is possible for Iran. Iran can use overt and covert force to shape things to its needs. It is likely to outlast all opponents in the region in a hot war or fire at will scenario. UAE gets uppity? Hit them. Hit them hard. Enable the PMF to take over Iraq. Support Bahraini and Shia of the oil regions of Saudi with arms and training. Have all the Emirs crawl on their knees to Tehran to kiss the ring and literally submit. This includes mr. bone saw.

Iran couldn't even deplete tiny Kuwait's interceptors and UAE was directly attacking Iran petrochemical facilties by the end of the war. If PMF starts a civil war in Iraq they will be bombed to bits by USAF; their capabilities are limited to launching one or two drones at a time and not much more. How are you planning to train and arm a Shia uprising in SA or Bahrain? At the end of the day arabs are semites like the jews and are much closer to them than Iranians. What you are suggesting is not possible with just missiles and drones that mostly get intercepted anyways. If it was, the blockade wouldn't have been as effective as it was.

US is not keen on maintaining the naval blockade. Otherwise the blockade would never have been lifted. Not only did they lift it, they reportedly purchased Iranian oil. They need oil volumes flowing out. They need to rebuild their reserves. Iran can easily throttle it. Market manipulation won't work once they begin to run short of physical oil. A naval blockade by the US is cutting off your nose to spite your face.

The US will never physically run short of oil just like Iran won't. They can easily institute price controls to keep prices down at the end of the day. Will they? Maybe or maybe not give that their elites now prioritize their private wealth over the continuation of the US as a functional state. Even if they don't, Americans will complain loudly on social media but at the end of the day will accept any amount of inflation or worsening QOL standards without any resistance.

But Iranian political elites (at least the Zarif Rouhani group) would rather submit by offering heavy concessions similar to what they offered leading up to February 28. Araghchi's right hand man just suggested offering oil and gas concessions to the US if you can believe it. If Khamenei shuffles the judiciary branch, it can cut the reformists to size and allow a proper conclusion to this.

Khamenei Jr. is a nobody, he wasn't even considered a candidate for SL before this was. He was picked to be a symbolic puppet for whoever is truly in charge now.
Anyways it seems the IRGC is for now still carrying out operations regardless of the desires of any reformists. But even then, ships are still taking the risk of trying to cross and the US can probably attrit the IRGC's ability to carry out those operations faster than those radars and launchers can be replaced. Continuation of the current military situation doesn't favor Iran. The problem is Iran can't target or hit any USN ships beyond the PG so it has not way of changing the status quo either.

 

[Magi]

Iran couldn't even deplete tiny Kuwait's interceptors and UAE was directly attacking Iran petrochemical facilties by the end of the war. If PMF starts a civil war in Iraq they will be bombed to bits by USAF; their capabilities are limited to launching one or two drones at a time and not much more. How are you planning to train and arm a Shia uprising in SA or Bahrain? At the end of the day arabs are semites like the jews and are much closer to them than Iranians. What you are suggesting is not possible with just missiles and drones that mostly get intercepted anyways. If it was, the blockade wouldn't have been as effective as it was.

The US will never physically run short of oil just like Iran won't. They can easily institute price controls to keep prices down at the end of the day. Will they? Maybe or maybe not give that their elites now prioritize their private wealth over the continuation of the US as a functional state. Even if they don't, Americans will complain loudly on social media but at the end of the day will accept any amount of inflation or worsening QOL standards without any resistance.

Khamenei Jr. is a nobody, he wasn't even considered a candidate for SL before this was. He was picked to be a symbolic puppet for whoever is truly in charge now.
Anyways it seems the IRGC is for now still carrying out operations regardless of the desires of any reformists. But even then, ships are still taking the risk of trying to cross and the US can probably attrit the IRGC's ability to carry out those operations faster than those radars and launchers can be replaced. Continuation of the current military situation doesn't favor Iran. The problem is Iran can't target or hit any USN ships beyond the PG so it has not way of changing the status quo either.

Kuwait despite its size has been the fulcrum of western power projection in the region since the British empire. It did not run out of interceptors because the US did not run out of interceptors. By all accounts the latter seemed very close by the time the MOU was signed.

Re. PMF, the USAF has not proven effective against guerilla forces historically, see Vietnam, Afghanistan, Yemen. PMF have a direct land line to Iran which makes them even more resilient and potent. However, here are complicating factors like Muqtada for example. None of this will be easy. The path to becoming a superpower usually is not easy. That is expected. Let's remember the KC-135s that were targeted over Iraq presumably by the PMF. Or the Kuwaiti F16 pilot shooting down the USAF F15s.

The Houthis became steadily more powerful under USAF and SA aerial bombings. That's why attiring Iran to the point of eliminating their control over the Hormuz doesn't seem realistic. Geography heavily favors Iran and all they need to do is keep firing drones at tankers.

As far as Arab tendencies, this has been the case since the Babylonian semites. But Iranians managed to control it in the past. A shared religion maybe a catalyst this time.

US will not run out of oil, but will lose influence to Iran once all or some Asian countries come begging to Iran to get their fuel, "cooking gas" and fertilizer.

We don't know much about Khamenei Jr. at all. It is yet to be seen if he will consolidate power. A lot hinges on the quality of leadership at times like this. Can he, will he reign in the reformists? We shall see.

 

[Professor Jiang]

Kurdish and Baluchi rebels have been activated simultaneously. Are we entering the next phase?

This sort of thing happens frequently in Iran.