Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Immortals said:
I moved the post to the other thread.

Smaller cities don’t have dedicated anti riot police. But ordinary officers also don’t make a living wage in Iran. So it’s not surprising if some don’t actively try to stop the riots. Better to let the protestors just vent and only bring in police and soldiers of it turns into vandalism and rioting.

Kurdistan is another problem altogether.

At the end of the day, if the average Iranian had a half way decent economy and livable wage, then Iran could do well. But instead they never focused on the economy and maintained status quo.

Before there were protests maybe every 5-10 years. Now the frequency is becoming every year or every other year.

Well go look at why. 30 years ago $1 USD was less than 1000 Toman. Today it is worth 150,000 Toman! The annual government budget reached the quadrillions of rials.

People with no clue of economics think this is sustainable. That magically US will cave and give Iran a good deal or Iran will build a nuke and U.S. will magically remove all sanctions.

Even if U.S./Israel weren’t doing to attack Iran for another 5 years. At the current pace, the currency devaluation and runaway inflation would basically demolish the Iranian economy and cause mass rioting even worse than the past few years.

Water supply is drying up
Lakes and rivers are drying up
Crop production is lower due to drought
Electricity generation is lower

What is the point of resisting the West if the country is turned into a 3rd world dumpster in the process?
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Yes, but they have at least one police station.

You are absolutely right and when you look at it, you see nothing but purposeful manipulation of people's living.

Let's look at official statistics about minimum wage in Iran.

In 2010 (1389), minimum wage in Iran was 303K Tomans, without additional benefits. With additional benefits, it reached almost 360K Tomans. The price of 1 USD was 1,100 Tomans, kept nearly the same throughout the year. So, minimum wage was about $327. Not great, but pretty OK for a country in our neighborhood and definitely livable.

Fast forward to 2025 (1404), minimum wage is 10,390,000 Tomans without additional benefits. With additional benefits, it reaches about 14M Tomans. The price of USD at the start of the year was about 80K Tomans and it is currently at 148K Tomans. So, minimum wage is barely $95.

Iran's oil income in 2008 was much higher obviously. Our 2008 oil income is estimated at $68 billion. Right now, our oil income is about $40 billion annually. A 42% decrease in our oil income, but minimum wage is about one-fourth of what it used to be!

The regime has put all the pressure of sanctions, and more, on ordinary Iranians. Our 15-year average inflation has been around 38%, while minimum wage has increased by 27% on average annually. Is it surprising that the lower-income families and the middle class are calling for a revolution now?

An average household in Iran has about 3.8 members. If we assume $2 per day for each person as the UN poverty line, minimum wage should cover at least $228 per month. And that hasn't been the case for over a decade already. Even if both parents work with minimum wage, they still cannot cover that.
 
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tower9 said:
Those idiots should've built them 20 years ago. Iran's government are certified morons.
I am against Zionist antics but there is no doubt Iran's leaders are certified idiots and deserve to lose power, but I still hope they win against the Zionists. It doesn't change the fact that they are morons.
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Developing nuclear capable missiles, launching them, and ensuring they would reach thousands of miles away is no small feat, especially for a country riddled with spies. Iran had better than the nukes: Proxies breathing down Israel from Lebanon and Syria. When they were neutralized, the Gaza war was over and Netanyahu has Iran itself now exposed and with Trump in the White House, Netanyahu has the best chance to try to make another Muslim country a wasteland.
But, hey, 'freedom' has come to Syria, right?!!
 
ShapurII said:
Yes, but they have at least one police station.

You are absolutely right and when you look at it, you see nothing but purposeful manipulation of people's living.

Let's look at official statistics about minimum wage in Iran.

In 2008 (1389), minimum wage in Iran was 303K Tomans, without additional benefits. With additional benefits, it reached almost 360K Tomans. The price of 1 USD was 1,100 Tomans, kept nearly the same throughout the year. So, minimum wage was about $327. Not great, but pretty OK for a country in our neighborhood and definitely livable.

Fast forward to 2025 (1404), minimum wage is 10,390,000 Tomans without additional benefits. With additional benefits, it reaches about 14M Tomans. The price of USD at the start of the year was about 80K Tomans and it is currently at 148K Tomans. So, minimum wage is barely $95.

Iran's oil income in 2008 was much higher obviously. Our 2008 oil income is estimated at $68 billion. Right now, our oil income is about $40 billion annually. A 42% decrease in our oil income, but minimum wage is about one-fourth of what it used to be!

The regime has put all the pressure of sanctions, and more, on ordinary Iranians. Our 15-year average inflation has been around 38%, while minimum wage has increased by 27% on average annually. Is it surprising that the lower-income families and the middle class are calling for a revolution now?
Click to expand...
It's a state planned economy and people need support from father-state. That must end. Cutting waste, corruption stimulating subsidies (on energy, fuel etc.) and starting with direct payment to the poor section of the poplation would serve as a transition to a healthier economy. They're doing something in that direction now (way too late), but lets hope it's start.
 
shapurzolaktaf said:
It's a state planned economy and people need support from father-state. That must end. Cutting waste, corruption stimulating subsidies (on energy, fuel etc.) and starting with direct payment to the poor section of the poplation would serve as a transition to a healthier economy. They're doing something in that direction now (way too late), but lets hope it's start.
Click to expand...
They're not doing enough. Apparently, running an Islamic proxy empire at the expense of your own people does not improve your internal security.

I mean look at Ahmadinejad's subsidy reform plan in 2008. He gave 45,500 Toman to each person when he started his reform plans. At the time, it was about $40-45. Pezeshkian is giving each person $7. That will not make any difference, particularly when the price of USD is going up nonstop.

So, minimum wage was $327 and a family of four received $160 in monthly payments from the government. That adds up to $487 per month, i.e. 72 million Tomans as of today. How do you want to do that now? The Parliament's proposal for next year is outrageous. They literally changed nothing for the better.
 
Persian Gulf said:
I don't think anyone disputed superiority of US war machine and ability to ramp up production

PAC-3
THAAD
SM-3
SM-6
Arrow-2
Arrow-3
David's Sling

Iran's missiles have a lot to contend with
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I remember some people insisted that the last Israeli strike on Iran was the result of 20 years of preparation and it won't happen again anytime soon because Iran has depleted US/Israeli ABMs in inventory.

Now add the introduction of Iron Beam to Israeli layered air defense as well.
 
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It looks the mass murdering, child killer entity is imploding from inside.
 
ShapurII said:
Yes, but they have at least one police station.

You are absolutely right and when you look at it, you see nothing but purposeful manipulation of people's living.

Let's look at official statistics about minimum wage in Iran.

In 2010 (1389), minimum wage in Iran was 303K Tomans, without additional benefits. With additional benefits, it reached almost 360K Tomans. The price of 1 USD was 1,100 Tomans, kept nearly the same throughout the year. So, minimum wage was about $327. Not great, but pretty OK for a country in our neighborhood and definitely livable.

Fast forward to 2025 (1404), minimum wage is 10,390,000 Tomans without additional benefits. With additional benefits, it reaches about 14M Tomans. The price of USD at the start of the year was about 80K Tomans and it is currently at 148K Tomans. So, minimum wage is barely $95.

Iran's oil income in 2008 was much higher obviously. Our 2008 oil income is estimated at $68 billion. Right now, our oil income is about $40 billion annually. A 42% decrease in our oil income, but minimum wage is about one-fourth of what it used to be!

The regime has put all the pressure of sanctions, and more, on ordinary Iranians. Our 15-year average inflation has been around 38%, while minimum wage has increased by 27% on average annually. Is it surprising that the lower-income families and the middle class are calling for a revolution now?

An average household in Iran has about 3.8 members. If we assume $2 per day for each person as the UN poverty line, minimum wage should cover at least $228 per month. And that hasn't been the case for over a decade already. Even if both parents work with minimum wage, they still cannot cover that.
Click to expand...

Here is another problem: declining birth rates. Iranian birth rates rival Europe and other stagnant country’s in continuously falling.

How can you afford to get married? Have a child in iran?

That is why the West/China/etc are moving so fast on AI and robotics. Something needs to replace the lack of youth educated individuals

Iran is absolutely screwed. It has neither the capital nor the power generation capability currently to build massive AI datacenters nor access to NVDA chips for inference. In robotics while Iran has for years been in robot competition, it is no where close to Boston Dynamics or Chinese companies. Look at what UAE and Saudi Arabia and Qatar are doing in terms of AI funding.

Iran sacrificed the future of its country for the Palestinian cause, while the Arabs prospered for decades by just accepting that challenging the West is futile.

So these sanctions secondary effect that will be felt decades from now will be an Iranian population that is:

  • skewed to older demographics
  • Has less childbirths than replacement
  • Less educated
  • Smaller workforce that is aging
  • With less access to AI than rival nations

While US will benefit from immigration for years to come, Iran doesn’t have that benefit as no one is trying to immigrate to Iran.
 
Persian Gulf said:
I don't think anyone disputed superiority of US war machine and ability to ramp up production

PAC-3
THAAD
SM-3
SM-6
Arrow-2
Arrow-3
David's Sling

Iran's missiles have a lot to contend with
Click to expand...
Only China can outproduce USA in missile production annually if they ramp up, as China is literally the "World's Factory". Iran is not.
 
Immortals said:
Here is another problem: decline birth rates. Iranian birth rates rival Europe and other stagnant country.

How can you afford to get married? Have a child?

That is why the West/China/etc are moving so fast on AI and robotics. Something needs to replace the lack of youth educated individuals

Iran is absolutely screwed. It has neither the capital nor the power generation capability currently to build massive AI datacenters nor access to NVDA chips for inference. In robotics while Iran has for years been in robot competition, it is no where close to Boston Dynamics or Chinese companies.

So these sanctions secondary effect that will be felt decades from now will be an Iranian population that is:

  • skewed to older demographics
  • Has less childbirths than replacement
  • Less educated
  • Smaller workforce that is aging
Click to expand...
That is soon (or already) a global problem.
 
shapurzolaktaf said:
That is soon (or already) a global problem.
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The rest of the globe has access to AI and trade with the West. Or in case of China their own models and advancement.

Iran has neither meaningful trade with the world nor does it have semiconductor or GPU industry of its own. It’s basically a semi closed off country.

In the future, Iran could be a major partner in AI for the West as it has some of the cheapest electricity prices in the world. However, much has to change for that to even be a possibility.
 
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