Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

did anyone really think Nasrallah was safe forever? it was an open secret that he lived in a bunker in Dahiyeh. Israel can track Iranian diplomats and IRGC members going to meet him quite easily

and Lebanon cannot build a massive deep bunker in Beirut without anyone spotting it, so it was always going to be vulnerable

that Nazi Israel Katz admitted on Israeli TV after the war that they tried to kill Khamenei but couldn't find him. after the Soroka hospital strike Israel said Khamenei cannot be allowed to continue to exist, so we can be sure they tried their best to find and kill him in the final days of the war.

he probably cut off contact with everyone except 1-2 trusted advisors and then moved between safe houses or underground tunnel networks

but sure, nobody should underestimate Israel and the US, just because Israel couldn't kill him in June last year does not mean the US (or even Israel, which learns quickly) cannot kill him in 2026

The fact they killed his successor in less than 72 hours (?) means they had full infiltration of Hezbollah. And it’s the timing that is important. In 2006 they missed him by less than 1 hour. Knowing the time is very important and the depth of the bunker was very deep and professionally built.

In 14 years, Iran and Russia couldn’t find Jew-lani in Idlib.

In fact the only major kill that Russia scored in the entire war was the assassination of Zahroush in Damascus suburbs.

 

[mangekyo]

Khamenei inherited a revolution and ideology he didn’t know what to do with. I believe Khomeini would have executed Khamenei for giving that fatwa.

 

[Watandar]

Khamenei inherited a revolution and ideology he didn’t know what to do with. I believe Khomeini would have executed Khamenei for giving that fatwa.

I believe Khamenei has handled the stresses of his role much better than Khomeini, who had cracked in the last two years of his rule. Most of the silly stuff by Khomeini, like the pointless fatwa on a nobody like Rushdie came in his last two years.

 

[Immortals]

Lol we can say whatever we want but i think IRI is one of if not the most resilient government of history of humanity, whatever US does they just don't want to go. It's like its impossible to get rid of them

IRI is resilient because of what is under its feet. Saddam was also resilient for the same reason.

If you have oil underneath your feet you can at least be energy independent and keep a society running even if the entire world cuts you off. (see Iraq 1990s, Venzenula under Maduro, Iran since oil sanctions in 2007 and U.S. embargo since 1979).

If you don’t have oil then you won’t make it long once your currency goes into the dumpster. Once you have oil/gasoline shortages it’s hard to function. That’s a big reason Assad fell, lack of energy independence.

It's like its impossible to get rid of them

Historically most revolutions happen once the military/police force sides with the people and stages a coup.

Iran in 1980’s recognized this and created IRGC + Basij to be able to secure the government is the military (Artesh) ever decided to do such an act.

Then in the late 2000’s Iran began taking IRGC generals and putting them into Artesh (example was Bagheri). This unified the two military branches and made them more a like in ideology.

So as long as security leadership of Iran stays intact, it’s hard for any amount of people to stage a revolution since guns are very restricted in Iran. Even in these riots you mostly saw pistols and shotguns….not a serious threat to military.

I guess theoretically if people of the country all boycott, Bazaari’s refuse to open up shop, police officers refuse to show to work then Iran could be immobilized. But there is still support for functioning government among the people.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The fact they killed his successor in less than 72 hours (?) means they had full infiltration of Hezbollah. And it’s the timing that is important. In 2006 they missed him by less than 1 hour. Knowing the time is very important and the depth of the bunker was very deep and professionally built.

In 14 years, Iran and Russia couldn’t find Jew-lani in Idlib.

In fact the only major kill that Russia scored in the entire war was the assassination of Zahroush in Damascus suburbs.

killing Safi al Din so quickly in a different bunker was a huge blow. showed. there was no safe location in Lebanon

Syria is a lot further from Iran and Russia than Beirut is to Israel

 

[mangekyo]

I believe Khamenei has handled the stresses of his role much better than Khomeini, who had cracked in the last two years of his rule. Most of the silly stuff by Khomeini, like the pointless fatwa on a nobody like Rushdie came in his last two years.

Khomeinist ideology does not fit a pacifist like khamenei. He should have declared the revolution a success and moved on instead of carrying it halfways. Thats the problem.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Historically most revolutions happen once the military/police force sides with the people and stages a coup.

Iran in 1980’s recognized this and created IRGC + Basij to be able to secure the government is the military (Artesh) ever decided to do such an act.

Then in the late 2000’s Iran began taking IRGC generals and putting them into Artesh (example was Bagheri). This unified the two military branches and made them more a like in ideology.

So as long as security leadership of Iran stays intact, it’s hard for any amount of people to stage a revolution since guns are very restricted in Iran. Even in these riots you mostly saw pistols and shotguns….not a serious threat to military.

I guess theoretically if people of the country all boycott, Bazaari’s refuse to open up shop, police officers refuse to show to work then Iran could be immobilized. But there is still support for functioning government among the people.

noticeably the current chief of staff is from Artesh and is very ideologically aligned with IRGC, immediately putting out strong statements and interviews during the recent 'protests'

there were zero high profile defections (from IRGC or Artesh or the police) during Israel's war and during these recent 'protests'

anyone expecting Artesh to be the weak link and lead a revolution is very disappointed so far

 

[Immortals]

I believe Khamenei has handled the stresses of his role much better than Khomeini, who had cracked in the last two years of his rule. Most of the silly stuff by Khomeini, like the pointless fatwa on a nobody like Rushdie came in his last two years.

Khomeini was against WMDs as well. When Saddam gassed Iranian cities, Khomeini refused to allow Iran to also develop chemical weapons.

So if Khomeini magically lived to 2000’s, I doubt he would have allowed a nuke either. He was more ultra conservative than even Khamenai.

 

[Immortals]

noticeably the current chief of staff is from Artesh and is very ideologically aligned with IRGC, immediately putting out strong statements and interviews during the recent 'protests'

there were zero high profile defections (from IRGC or Artesh or the police) during Israel's war and during these recent 'protests'

anyone expecting Artesh to be the weak link and lead a revolution is very disappointed so far

Historically the weakest link would be the Air Force in Iran. Even in Turkey when they last tried a coup it was led by Air Force I believe.

Yet we didn’t see any pilots fleeing to western countries or defecting. We also didn’t even really see pilots in the air which makes me wonder if Iran grounded the fleet during the war. There was also concern in the past about its Friend or Foe technology and if that gets jammed or hacked then it’s a liability having your fleet in the air.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Historically the weakest link would be the Air Force in Iran. Even in Turkey when they last tried a coup it was led by Air Force I believe.

Yet we didn’t see any pilots fleeing to western countries or defecting. We also didn’t even really see pilots in the air which makes me wonder if Iran grounded the fleet during the war. There was also concern in the past about its Friend or Foe technology and if that gets jammed or hacked then it’s a liability having your fleet in the air.

the dynamics are very different from the Shah's time. the air force is so weak and irrelevant now that any defections from the air force would not even be important

 

[Watandar]

With the failure of decapitation attack in June 2025, the lack of interceptors to counter Iranian missiles, the failure of street revolution attempt in Jan 2026 and no defections from the security services, I believe the deeply frustrated West only has two options :

1. Assassinate Khamenei so that Trump can claim he did something.

2. Begin seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil.

 

[Immortals]

People were naive and believed Iran is going to defeat the US by destroying a couple empty bases and bomb some refineries. The US and Israel owns the global financial system and literally prints the worlds reserve currency. The military budget alone is 1T. They don’t give a f about some damaged bases and refineries that Arabs will pay for anyways.

I think people thought that the threat of causing mass casualties to bases and oil fields would keep the U.S. from doing anything.

But I think the west began changing their calculations once Iran stopped responding to Israeli strikes in Syria. It culminated in the lack of response to Solemani assaination.

For 20 years no US president assassinated Solemani despite having multiple opportunities (Israel had a lock on him when he was with Imad in early 2000’s but only got approval to kill Imad. They also had a lock on his convoy in Iraq years later). But the thinking was killing Solemani would start a war. Thus he was untouchable.

When Trump came in and threw risk out the window and acted like a brute then his actions actually changed how the West perceived Iran. And suddenly the threats of retaliation and mass destruction were just rhetoric and they kept pushing the envelope.

So it’s hard to believe how Iran who has avoided any large scale confrontation for 30+ years is suddenly going to adopt an Israeli mentality of scorched earth.

The Khomeini clan, the Rafsanjani clan, the Larijani clan, the Khamenai clan, the Qalibaf clan, etc etc mostly care about power retention and thriving in their sandbox. The ones who carried the revolutionary spirit died in Syria and Lebanon and Iraq and Yemen the last 25 years.

 

[Immortals]

2. Begin seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil.

I think that’s might be the next plan. The ‘Venzenula plan’ of not letting Iran export oil and blockade the Persian gulf. Choke the Iranian economy further.

Make Iran decide between war or starvation. And like you said, if you get a strike window on Khamenai than have Israel do it (avoids US from directly killing a head of state).

 

[mangekyo]

I think people thought that the threat of causing mass casualties to bases and oil fields would keep the U.S. from doing anything.

But I think the west began changing their calculations once Iran stopped responding to Israeli strikes in Syria. It culminated in the lack of response to Solemani assaination.

For 20 years no US president assassinated Solemani despite having multiple opportunities (Israel had a lock on him when he was with Imad in early 2000’s but only got approval to kill Imad. They also had a lock on his convoy in Iraq years later). But the thinking was killing Solemani would start a war. Thus he was untouchable.

When Trump came in and threw risk out the window and acted like a brute then his actions actually changed how the West perceived Iran. And suddenly the threats of retaliation and mass destruction were just rhetoric and they kept pushing the envelope.

So it’s hard to believe how Iran who has avoided any large scale confrontation for 30+ years is suddenly going to adopt an Israeli mentality of scorched earth.

The Khomeini clan, the Rafsanjani clan, the Larijani clan, the Khamenai clan, the Qalibaf clan, etc etc mostly care about power retention and thriving in their sandbox. The ones who carried the revolutionary spirit died in Syria and Lebanon and Iraq and Yemen the last 25 years.

I agree. Which is why I say khamenei was never a good fit for khomenist ideology. He should have moved on. True revolutionaries/nationalists were Soleimani and his friends. Not those who used sanctions to enrich themselves and sent billions to their kids who live like billionaires in the west.

 

[Watandar]

I think that’s might be the next plan. The ‘Venzenula plan’ of not letting Iran export oil and blockade the Persian gulf. Choke the Iranian economy further.

Make Iran decide between war or starvation. And like you said, if you get a strike window on Khamenai than have Israel do it (avoids US from directly killing a head of state).

But I do think the flaw in this plan is if the Iranian tankers are not easy to seize and have motivated guards who shoot back, then Trump will abandon the campaign after a few weeks.

Khamenei, I think Trump has made it clear he wants him dead. But that doesn't meant Khamenei cannot survive.