Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

simple numbers. there are far more people reaching university age outside of Tehran than places available in Tehran universities each year. so naturally the majority of them will not study in Tehran universities.

I never said IRI is popular, though I do believe they still have a plurality (not majority) of support. you can disagree. but 22 Bahman rallies are far larger than any anti government rallies I ever saw (2009 green movement came close). people always exclude rural Iranians who overwhelmingly support the IRI.

anyway, as the Chinese guy said, I hope if the war comes that we can all unite as Iranians and even if we can't win, we give the bastards a bloody nose and go out fighting.

I think you are misinterpreting the statistical aspects of it. The question is: Are universities in Tehran a fair sample of Iranian people aged under 30? My argument is that it is because of the regional quota system in place, which is there for this exact purpose.

Please allow me not to buy that "26 million" figure. lol
Anyway, I agree that unity is the most important thing here but unity is a result of pluralism, not theocratic dictatorship and brutal suppression.

Iran's main issues are internal. Trump is only banking on our own mistakes and mismanagements and trying to use them for leverage against us.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I think you are misinterpreting the statistical aspects of it. The question is, are universities in Tehran a fair sample of Iranian people aged under 30? My argument is that it is because of the regional quota system in place, which is there for this exact purpose.

Please allow me not to buy that "26 million" figure. lol
Anyway, I agree that unity is the most important thing here but unity is a result of pluralism, not theocratic dictatorship and brutal suppression.

Iran's main issues are internal. Trump is only banking on our own mistakes and mismanagements and trying to use them for leverage against us.

I don't believe in 26 million but I have consistently seen far bigger rallies for Soleimani's funeral, Raisi's funeral, and 22 Bahman than any anti-government rally since 2009 Green movement.

unity is ideally unconditional but obviously retarded corrupt incompetent mullahs with draconian rules are not easy to unite behind, but that's why you unite behind the country no matter who the regime is. regimes come and go, the country stays.

 

[ShapurII]

I don't believe in 26 million but I have consistently seen far bigger rallies for Soleimani's funeral, Raisi's funeral, and 22 Bahman than any anti-government rally since 2009 Green movement.

unity is ideally unconditional but obviously retarded corrupt incompetent mullahs with draconian rules are not easy to unite behind, but that's why you unite behind the country no matter who the regime is. regimes come and go, the country stays.

Soleimani's funeral was an exception in recent years and it is a great example of the importance of popular support for the perceived strength of a system and its deterrence. It was the funeral of Soleimani that made Trump rethink about further adventures at that point, not our symbolic attack on Ain-al Assad. If anything, our symbolic attack on Ain-al Assad was a signal of weakness, but getting united over the assassination of Soleimani sent a truly strong message to Trump at that time.

However, I completely disagree with your second assessment. January protests were even bigger than the 2009 Green Movement. I remember you kept posting figures that claimed the protests were in the size of few thousands, usually in 1-2K range. How did they kill 3K and injure 25K in 2 days if the protestors were that many? Makes no sense.

Keeping a bad regime in power, that has consistently made bad choices without exception, is like allowing cancer to spread in your body because you're afraid of surgical intervention and medical treatments.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[hasssanali8998]

surgical intervention and medical treatments.

but the doctor is on your side , not the case here

 

[ShapurII]

but the doctor is on your side , not the case here

Not necessarily. In most cases, the doctor gets his money and doesn't care if you will survive after it or not. It's simply a business transaction for many doctors.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Soleimani's funeral was an exception in recent years and it is a great example of the importance of popular support for the perceived strength of a system and its deterrence. It was the funeral of Soleimani that made Trump rethink about further adventures at that point, not our symbolic attack on Ain-al Assad. If anything, our symbolic attack on Ain-al Assad was a signal of weakness, but getting united over the assassination of Soleimani sent a truly strong message to Trump at that time.

However, I completely disagree with your second assessment. January protests were even bigger than the 2009 Green Movement. I remember you kept posting figures that claimed the protests were in the size of few thousands, usually in 1-2K range. How did they kill 3K and injure 25K in 2 days if the protestors were that many? Makes no sense.

Keeping a bad regime in power, that has consistently made bad choices without exception, is like allowing cancer to spread in your body because you're afraid of surgical intervention and medical treatments.

sure, the number of killed and injured suggests significant protests and significant violence (on both sides, in my opinion).

IRI has to make significant reforms or go, no doubt, but you don't treat cancer by letting the devil shoot your head off. no point rehashing this point over.

better served by theorising how Iran can survive a US imposed war, to ensure we still have a country, before we think about such luxuries like a better regime.

 

[Garcia Sea]

Concessions only invite war.
If there is a single country that survived by making concessions to the US, please tell me.
Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria,
Without exception, they have been destroyed.
Afghanistan and Yemen, which refused concessions and fought to the end, have survived.
China once had many voices favorable to Iran, but this changed completely after June 2025.
Despite the JCPOA inviting aggression, the foolish pursuit of negotiations with the US without waking up has bred widespread disbelief and anger. The voices calling for abandoning Iran have become nothing but harsh.

 

[جوبا]

they won't sell it to me so I don't know,

Brother for you I make special offer
good discount brother, you can check the market you wont find lower brice

 

[Persian Gulf]

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interesting dynamic

Iranians better get used to tolerating different political opinions if they want to have a country moving forward

but as usual even in this video it seems the pro government crowd are peaceful and calm while the anti government crowd are vulgar, angry and looking for violence. it is a shame.

note this is not always the case. hardliners in the pro government supporters have conducted disgusting violent attacks in the past.

 

[ShapurII]

sure, the number of killed and injured suggests significant protests and significant violence (on both sides, in my opinion).

IRI has to make significant reforms or go, no doubt, but you don't treat cancer by letting the devil shoot your head off. no point rehashing this point over.

better served by theorising how Iran can survive a US imposed war, to ensure we still have a country, before we think about such luxuries like a better regime.

We will most likely survive the war, but we will be forced to surrender to the US imposed world order and play along with their regional plans.

 

[Persian Gulf]

We will most likely survive the war, but we will be forced to surrender to the US imposed world order and play along with their regional plans.

which US intervention in recent decades makes you so optimistic? I don't think the 'clean' Venezuela model works in Iran, for many reasons.

in my opinion, Israel wants supremacy over the region and would rather live among neighbours in ruins than let any of them challenge Israel's qualitative superiority. that's why they will go after Turkey next, even though Turkey has had great relations with Israel for many years.

we are lucky a lot of Americans don't remember the hostage crisis. racism against Iranians was really mainstream back then. they could have nuked Tehran and Americans would have celebrated.

 

[ShapurII]

note this is not always the case. hardliners in the pro government supporters have conducted disgusting violent attacks in the past.

Isn't it suspicious that the supporters of the regime are already there with their flags and their drumset? How organic is that?

Most of them are obviously part of the Basij students of the university. Each university has its own Basij branch, as you know.

Honestly, I'm stunned that nobody is willing to acknowledge the situation in the system.
I used to think that unlike what it appears on the surface, Iran was ruled by some sort of pragmatism behind the scene.

 

[ShapurII]

which US intervention in recent decades makes you so optimistic? I don't think the 'clean' Venezuela model works in Iran, for many reasons.

in my opinion, Israel wants supremacy over the region and would rather live among neighbours in ruins than let any of them challenge Israel's qualitative superiority. that's why they will go after Turkey next, even though Turkey has had great relations with Israel for many years.

we are lucky a lot of Americans don't remember the hostage crisis. racism against Iranians was really mainstream back then. they could have nuked Tehran and Americans would have celebrated.

The fact that the US is not considering a complete ground invasion of Iran, and this is supported by their current military formation and their own statements, means that they are working towards a planned transition of power. As I said, it seems that they are seeking a situation where either Iran surrenders to their demands, or they will continue their cycle of war and economic pressure until the country implodes internally. In both cases, a transition of power will take place without boots on the ground.

Otherwise, how do you think they can invade a country of 90 million people and keep it without sending their troops there?

If they were after another Iraq war, the Americans would've stationed a million soldiers around us, including soldiers from other allied countries in NATO and in the region.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Isn't it suspicious that the supporters of the regime are already there with their flags and their drumset? How organic is that?

Most of them are obviously part of the Basij students of the university. Each university has its own Basij branch, as you know.

Honestly, I'm stunned that nobody is willing to acknowledge the situation in the system.
I used to think that unlike what it appears on the surface, Iran was ruled by some sort of pragmatism behind the scene.

there are 6 people sharing 3 drums. the rest are just chanting heydar with Iranian flags. doesn't look like something they planned for weeks.

just like the anti government protestors there have specially made posters etc.

do you agree that in this video alone the pro government Basijis are calmer and less confrontational than the anti government protesters?