Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Persian Gulf]

We needed this conflict to show the world our stature and break out of this vicious cycle and make any future president think twice about an adventure with Iran. We took the military option off the table for good.

Have some faith and don’t let the psych ops get to you. This was the best outcome we could have hoped for. Trust the PHD Technocrats and the IRGC. Criticism is warranted, but defeatist attitudes and dispora ideology is a zero tolerance zone.

I am not as optimistic as you. we are absorbing a huge number of blows relative to the number of strikes we are hitting Israel with.

thankfully Iran is a massive country with strategic depth and hopefully we can keep the Strait closed for many more months before we entertain ceasefire talks.

 

[Immortals]

 

[Immortals]

 

[HAIDER]

Zionist are animals .... and these Arabs acting like slave ....

 

[Magi]

]Sure we lost our useless Navy and antique Airforce. Some passenger planes. Everything else can be rebuilt.

The catamarans were sweet.

 

[ShapurII]

I’m not gonna argue with you. I did that before the war and it didn’t change your clearly engrained ideology.

So here are my predictions:

• Iran will go nuclear by end of year
• If Iran collectively decides to not go to the nuke — the HEU will not depart the country and will remain and used as leverage and maybe diluted to 20%
• Enrichment will restart (maybe not immediately given the repairs that need to be done)
• Uranium metal is already able to converted at facilities with dual use conversion capability
• Iran has hidden centrifuges
• Iran was able to smuggle material and centrifuge parts out before the June war and before Feb war and disperse it per satellite photos.

The US couldn’t “take” Iran’s uranium in the June war or the Ramadan war. Only a fool will hand it over freely for some petty reversible concessions like we did with the Arak reactor (plutonium path).

Let’s see who is right this time. Who knows maybe you get lucky for once in your life my friend.

Dude, you were the person that said Qatar was Iran's bestest friend. I mean I don't want to dig old stuff, but you have had your fair share of wrong predictions. You were also strongly against Iran going nuclear. Kind of ironic, no?

Nevertheless, it isn't me that is negotiating with the Americans to hand over our HEU. In fact, my stance has always been against negotiation with the West before going nuclear. And it isn't a recent stance. I was against negotiations with the West long before the JCPOA and I was the strongest critic of the JCPOA here.

There is no scenario in game theory where a non-nuclear Iran can survive and prosper with all this animosity and threats surrounding us.

The only type of fair negotiation that Iran can ever have with the US is over the kilotons and megatons of our nuclear devices. Period.

 

[ShapurII]

That was due to Khamenai Sr. - Larijani - Shamkhani who were doves. Larijani had his daughter in the U.S. during the war, so how much can you expect such a man to slap America in the mouth? Mojtaba under Khamenai was in the UK at times. Shamkhani had ties to a known Iranian mole for the west, who was hung for his treachery.

The system is now in the process of self cleansing and getting rid of the fat and excess burden and consolidating around a core ideology.

That's exactly what I was talking about. My old posts are still there. The top of the system had too many connections with the West and refused to move up the escalation ladder when it was necessary and even vital. Ghalibaf is still there though.

We will see. I know nothing about Mojtaba Khamenei. All I can hope for is that he doesn't make the same mistakes his father made.

 

[Immortals]

I am not as optimistic as you. we are absorbing a huge number of blows

By such logic if you were Russian you’d have thrown yourself out of a window: tankers being confiscated or attacked, oil/gas installations attacked, tens of thousands of casualties a month.

Yet both Ukraine and Russia are standing 4 years later.

relative to the number of strikes we are hitting Israel with.

Don’t focus on the kinetic battle because no chance we can win that. We are absorbing blows and playing war of attrition. Their tomahawks, JSAAMs, sparrows, etc are running low and we still got missiles for months. I mean hell Israel had to resort to using bombs from 1970s.

we can keep the Strait closed for many more months before we entertain ceasefire talks.

I don’t think it will even take that long economically speaking. The world is about 2-3 weeks away from an inflection point and by May serious energy crisis and economic stagnation. As long as Iran can keep the strait closed till then and fight off any coastline invasion then the peace terms are in OUR favor.

The strait is us sanctioning the world and is our nuclear weapon. And if Trump goes scorched earth then we go as well and then everyone loses and the world plunges into chaos.

I told you we should have done this in 2023 when AoR was at full strength and you and some others were nervous about this very scenario. Better late than never.

This is the conclusion of a 40+ year drama. It ends one way or another.

 

[BigMela2onin]

I am not as optimistic as you. we are absorbing a huge number of blows relative to the number of strikes we are hitting Israel with.

I don't think anyone reasonably expects otherwise. The west picks the battlefield, when the war starts, and will always gets the first hit in which will be the hardest. Iran will always be fighting disadvantaged.

thankfully Iran is a massive country with strategic depth and hopefully we can keep the Strait closed for many more months before we entertain ceasefire talks.

Part of that will be keeping people's morale high. Iranians are going out into the streets every night to show their support. Some may read this forum when they are able to. If these things didn't matter, militaries wouldn't but effort into psy-ops.
As of now there is no ceasefire and Iran hasn't stopped attacks, yet people are dooming about a negotiation that may or may not happen. Being overly pessimistic isn't to anyone's benefit.

 

[ToqeLowkey]

What do u guys think ?

 

[ShapurII]

I am not as optimistic as you. we are absorbing a huge number of blows relative to the number of strikes we are hitting Israel with.

thankfully Iran is a massive country with strategic depth and hopefully we can keep the Strait closed for many more months before we entertain ceasefire talks.

Even though I wholeheartedly agree with this, but I think the benefits of reaching long-lasting peace with the world powers fully justifies the price we have to pay.

10 years of reconstruction is nothing in the greater scheme of things. And post-war construction always opens up job opportunities and instigates economic growth.

 

[BigMela2onin]

The catamarans were sweet.

I don't think they ever got radars, but if Iran considers the Navy something worth putting effort into in the future, they are the most promising platforms for our purposes.

 

[ShapurII]

What do u guys think ?

This is delusional as much as Trump's 15 points are.

 

[kobra]

For People who like to take these supposed watchdogs, their reports and assessments seriously and consider them unbiased and just

 

[SecularNationalist]

Iran is not a small and weak country. See this was your mistake to consider Iran as small and weak.
Iran has a large territory. Intelligent educated population and old civilization and culture. They make their own arms don't rely on foreign pressures. Sanctions taught Iran a lot. Necessary being the mother of invention.
Trump keeps reinforcing the failure and compounding the problems.