There is a theory, that UAE leaving OPEC is not in the interest of US. If UAE manage to sell its oil in bulk, that will dampen US own ambitions in global energy market, specially in current new geopolitical landscape.
U.S. oil accounts for less than 10% of the world's oil exports, and combined with Venezuelan oil and UAE oil, it still cannot monopolize the oil market.
The U.S. has tried to control Iranian and Middle Eastern oil through aggression in Iran, which would allow it to gain pricing power over oil. There is sufficient evidence that the U.S. controlled Venezuela and then announced the sale of Venezuelan oil.
Trump wants to control oil pricing and tightly link oil to the dollar. When the dollar’s ability to extract from the global economy weakens, Trump hopes to control the global economy through oil. If Trump achieves this plan, the next step would be to force other countries to use dollars to settle oil purchases. This would stabilize the huge U.S. dollar debt, lower its interest, and allow the U.S. to continue issuing massive dollar-denominated debt.
However, the U.S. cannot accomplish this plan.
Except for U.S. allied countries, no country would give up cheap energy in favor of expensive energy controlled by the U.S. Moreover, the U.S. is accustomed to attaching additional requirements in trade.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC was certainly supported by the U.S. and Israel. When the oil-dollar system existed, the U.S. could require OPEC to control production, and now the UAE should also be under U.S. control.
Therefore, I believe this viewpoint is incorrect. There are two reasons why the UAE increased production. First, the UAE’s economy has been greatly affected, and they need to increase production to sustain their economy. Second, the Epstein alliance wants the UAE to increase production to lower oil prices, reduce the funds Iran receives, and use economic pressure to force Iran to give up interests. This is what Trump is doing now.
