Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
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Watandar
Trusted Member
HOT OFF THE PRESS!! Archive link to this important article!! Leaks like this mean the deep state wants out of this Israeli war.
A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.
The analysis by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s public statements, also found that Tehran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment, three of the people familiar with it said.
Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began........
WASHINGTON POST: U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months
A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.
The analysis by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s public statements, also found that Tehran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment, three of the people familiar with it said.
Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began........
I'm starting to become desensitized to the news of a supposed deal. It's all b******* till it happens as far as I'm concerned
Meengla
Elite Member
I am pretty sure when Iran agreed to the ceasefire in the second week of April they had very good reasons to do so. It wasn't that long ago to recall that one after another the Iranian leaders were killed off. Araghchi and Ghalibaf were on Israel's death list until the Israelis were talked out of that. Yes, they could be replaced but after a while the replacements wouldn't be the good enough. Israelis did that effectively in the 2023/25 war on Hezbollah.
Neither side in this conflict has too many cards to play with. But the Israelis have the most choices as long as they can persuade Trump into doing Israel's work.
The Ed. in Chief of 'The Economist' said it would take only 4-5 years to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for oil/gas by building pipelines. But she forgot to note that those too would be susceptible to the Iranian drones and missiles AND much else critical stuff flows through the Strait then just the fossil fuel.
The Saudis lie through their theet whenever they say anything. They're absolutely untrustworthy.
Yes, but I also think that people tend to overrate the duration it will require to successfully navigate the Arab energy exports around the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial issue for the survival of the GCC nations. They will invest everything into this project.
---
The question is no longer just how to secure the strait, but whether the global energy system can afford to depend on it to the extent it has for decades.
If the current trajectory continues, Hormuz may remain critical, but no longer dominant, experts argue, as countries invest in new routes, new partnerships and a more diversified energy map.
US-backed pipeline proposal targets global reliance on Strait of Hormuz amid Iran threats
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is pushing Gulf states and the U.S. to develop alternative energy routes, reducing dependence on one vulnerable choke point.
www.foxnews.com
The situation is more intricate than just constructing new pipelines. Their strategy is multi-faceted, incorporating additional countries such as Turkey in the hopes of enhancing deterrence. They are also focused on circumventing the Red Sea bottleneck.
Meengla
Elite Member
I hope a certain Iranian and certain Pakistani here are reading your post. They know I am referring to them!
Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ
Trusted Member
There is nothing that Iran can do without starting a war where it will be further isolated. What Iran can do however is keep its redlines clear and defined and act upon them when the time comes. These resources and facilities are effectively Iran's leverage and protection against any aggression against it's own infrastructure and facilities. Meaning the world that is invested in it and needs it will lose access. And that cannot be taken away...
Iranian retaliation, accuracy and reach demonstrated it's capability and created a new deterrent. The reason for this aggression was however a totally different reason... it was US and zionist self sufficiency in oil that in part motivated this aggression because they could get away with murder... as they have for now. It is the rest of the world that has to understand that they're under US sword that wants to undermine their wellbeing.
Iran therefore has a lot more to gain by going and reaching out to those who've been victims of this along with Iran. To actively find an alternative to the system that stops propping up their own tormentor and overlord.
Meengla
Elite Member
Yes, I know the amassing of the troops. And I am sure the Iranians also know that. Still, why did the Iranians agree to the ceasefire in the second week of April if it was not in their own interests? No Pakistan, no China could have coerced them to the ceasefire. Iranians needed the ceasefire for some very good reasons as do the Americans.
Only the Israelis don't like the ceasefire or any end to this war. That much the whole world knows by now.
Master Chief
Trusted Member
Alternative routing remains a time consuming and expensive solution. Even if USA circumvents Hormuz, it won't be cost effective. If Iran sustains the blockade, then USA (and anyone else Iran chooses to levy excessive charges against) loses out.
Flotilla
Trusted Member
They will take advantage, for sure.
But Irán will also take advantage of those days. After the 12 days war, there was evidences that iranians reconstructed in weeks their missile factories and restarted production.
Additionally if there is even a slight deal for some months obviously that window will bring sactions waivers at least (probably even complete sanctions relief, even if they´re temporary).
Don´t forget that Russia must still deliver Su35 and with more money from oil trade and freezed funds, more stuff will come (Yak130 and Mi28).
as long as Israel exists there wont be peace in the world....Iranians are smart people i am sure thy are aware of this fact them giving time to Us/Isr to rearm must be because they are themselves low on ammo!
FUB
Trusted Member
It is all theater. There is no deal.
KingQamaR
Elite Member
The Saudis lie through their theet whenever they say anything. They're absolutely untrustworthy.
Yes, but I also think that people tend to overrate the duration it will require to successfully navigate the Arab energy exports around the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial issue for the survival of the GCC nations. They will invest everything into this project.
---
The question is no longer just how to secure the strait, but whether the global energy system can afford to depend on it to the extent it has for decades.
If the current trajectory continues, Hormuz may remain critical, but no longer dominant, experts argue, as countries invest in new routes, new partnerships and a more diversified energy map.
US-backed pipeline proposal targets global reliance on Strait of Hormuz amid Iran threats
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is pushing Gulf states and the U.S. to develop alternative energy routes, reducing dependence on one vulnerable choke point.
The situation is more intricate than just constructing new pipelines. Their strategy is multi-faceted, incorporating additional countries such as Turkey in the hopes of enhancing deterrence. They are also focused on circumventing the Red Sea bottleneck.
You are right. We mustn’t trust Saudi & GCC LEADERS.
But the gulf states see a future coming with the US going home and a unsanctioned Iran still in power.
and they have to arrange themself with that.
US& Trump really did f up with this war.
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