Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Fallstuff said:
He cancelled the Obama deal. Now he has to get something more than what Obama got, otherwise it makes him look weak, more worse than Obama. If he gets the same deal with all bases destroyed, it will make him look weak.
So we will have these going back and forth for God knows how long.
Click to expand...

Yes but the bigger issue for Trump is how to get something better looking for him which would not involve dozens or even hundreds or even thousands of body bags coming home to America. That would destroy Trump and his supine Republican stooges in the Congress.
I think at this point, I don't rule out an offramp based on the ongoing diplomacy. The other options could be:
1) Two more weeks of intense attacks to further degrade Iran; that's Netanyahu's Minimal Viable Product (MVP), to use a business term.
2) A staged tit for tat like what happened at the end of the June 2025 conflict.

Both of them would allow Americans to declare 'victory' and leave but both would eventually be an Iranian 'victory' and the Israelis know that though the Israelis would take option #1 as best. But option #1 would risk significant American casualties and #2 is something Iranians might not agree with--though they should as long as the Americans leave!
 
Aziqbal said:
Honestly, the FPV drones that Hezbollah is using have done more damage to Israel in Lebanon then any of the ballistic rockets
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Right. Also look at how effective those cheap FPV are against the Russians in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Absolutely the best bang for the bucks.
Iran's problem is that it is too far from Israel. Remember what Trita Parsi said at the start of this war: Iran's 'First line of defense' were the proxies around Israel, which are now greatly diminished, and thus this attack on Iran happened. Geography matters!!
 
This table shows how many ballistic missiles Iran launched during the war:
1778507198670.png

Around 1900 ballistic missiles in total and lets assume another 100 missiles had been hit by US and Israel and this means Iran exhausted around 2000 ballistic missiles during the 40 day war.

And now according to US intelligence Iran still has 70% of its pre-war ballistic missile arsenal.
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So, if 2000 ballistic missiles is 30% and Iran still has another 70% of its missile arsenal, this means Iran had 6600 ballistic missiles before the war and currently it has around 4600 ballistic missiles.

Also, Iran launched at least 6000 drones during the war and US says Iran still has 40% of its pre-war drone arsenal.

This means before the war Iran had 6600 ballistic missiles and 10.000 drones, and currently Iran has 4600 ballistic missiles and 4000 drones.

Iran should have an arsenal of 15.000 MRBMs and 30.000 drones
 
www.middleeasteye.net

Senior royal says Saudi Arabia avoided Israeli plan to 'plunge region into ruin'

Prince Turki al-Faisal wrote that had Israel succeeded, thousands of Saudis would have 'been lost in a battle in which we had no stake'
www.middleeasteye.net www.middleeasteye.net


This news development deserves its own thread I think

It seems to confirm that the Saudis were exercising strategic patience, Pakistan explicitly mentioned as being part of this understanding. Moreover, all of the narratives around invoking the defence pact had the intention to expand the war.

Also contradicting the narrative that the Saudis pushed for this war in fact it looks like the opposite.
 
GWXP said:
This table shows how many ballistic missiles Iran launched during the war:
View attachment 196834

Around 1900 ballistic missiles in total and lets assume another 100 missiles had been hit by US and Israel and this means Iran exhausted around 2000 ballistic missiles during the 40 day war.

And now according to US intelligence Iran still has 70% of its pre-war ballistic missile arsenal.
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For more detailed information, see our cookies page.


So, if 2000 ballistic missiles is 30% and Iran still has another 70% of its missile arsenal, this means Iran had 6600 ballistic missiles before the war and currently it has around 4600 ballistic missiles.

Also, Iran launched at least 6000 drones during the war and US says Iran still has 40% of its pre-war drone arsenal.

This means before the war Iran had 6600 ballistic missiles and 10.000 drones, and currently Iran has 4600 ballistic missiles and 4000 drones.

Iran should have an arsenal of 15.000 MRBMs and 30.000 drones
Click to expand...

I think the number is more like 500 for Israel rather than 650

In June 2025 it was ~600

And in Operations TP I and II a total of 300 missiles

So ~1400-1500 ballistic missiles fired at Israel since April 2024
 
Persian Gulf said:
I think the number is more like 500 for Israel rather than 650

In June 2025 it was ~600

And in Operations TP I and II a total of 300 missiles

So ~1400-1500 ballistic missiles fired at Israel since April 2024
Click to expand...
Iran produces 100 ballistic missiles per month or 1200 missiles that can reach Israel per year.

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Since Iran launched 2181 ballistic missiles (MRBMs and SRBMs) during the 40 Day War and CIA says Iran still has 70% of its pre-war arsenal, we can say that before the war Iran had more than 7200 ballistic missiles in total.

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Based on Israeli report from 20.02.2026 that says Iran produces 100 missiles per month (1200 missiles per year) and can have 5000 ballistic missiles that can reach Israel by 2027, we can estimate that out of these 7200 ballistic missiles 3800 missiles were MRBMs and 3400 missiles were SRBMs.

www.ynetnews.com

Israel racing to curb Iran missile surge, warns 'no airtight solution' to thousands of rockets

IDF officials estimate Iran could possess at least 5,000 ballistic missiles by 2027, producing about 100 per month, and say layered air defenses cannot fully prevent damage from sustained, large-scale barrages
www.ynetnews.com www.ynetnews.com

During the 40 Day War Iran launched 2181 ballistic missiles of which 700 MRBMs at Israel and Jordan and 1481 SRBMs at Gulf countries.

So, currently Iran has 3100 MRBMs and 1919 SRBMs = 5019 ballistic missiles in total.

With this arsenal Iran can continue fighting for another 92 days.
 
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Well I believe Israel is in ruins after the Iranian missile strikes.
 
Meengla said:
Netanyahu will not give up until his goals are met
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True, but then he will just move on to his next goal's/demands.

Just rinse and repeat with Benni, never staisfied.

America will do his/Israel's/The Zionist's bidding like always. A sick situation.
 
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It's going to be 3 months. Dear Trump is still high on his own supply.
 
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