Pakistan First
Registered Member
One word: Lebanon.
The Strait, the fissile material issues could be under the Iranian decision making some years later--they can even renege on any agreement later just like Trump violated the JCPOA. But the bone of contention was and remains Lebanon. During the April talks in Islamabad, most issues were broadly agreed upon except for Lebanon. This was stated by Pakistan's credible analysts like Hamid Mir shortly after the Talks. And that has not changed.
The Israelis want a chunk of the Lebanese territory.
Honestly, I don't think think so. Yes Iranians have said that they want Israelis to end bombings of Lebanon given that Hezbullah joined the war for Iran. But I am certain that Iran prioritizes its own interests over Lebanon. I still think that unfreezing Iranian assets and affairs related with strait of hormuz are more important for Iran. Iran wants sanction relief, Iran wants trade and restart its economy.
Iran already knows that Israel is not going to leave Lebanon's territory any time soon. I think eventually Iran and US will do some sort of MoU or deal. But Israelis will keep hitting at Lebanon despite that MoU. Even if Iran responds to Israel, there won't be direct confrontation bw US and Iran but it would be between Iran and Israel. US ofcourse will be helping Israel but not attacking Iran directly. I think Iran also wants that. Iran wants US to back off. So US+Israel vs Iran+Hezbullah would become Israel vs Hezbullah+Iran. Again US would be fully supporting Israel with weapons and intelligence.







