Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Nawnaw1]

If that's really also the most important demand of Iran then I don't see any peace deal happening.

Because if Iran considers the US bases in the region as a threat to its security at the same time US consider those bases as extremely valuable. Through the presence of this hard power, US enjoys complete hegemony in the region and earn 100s of billions by extortion (oil rich countries spending 100s of billions of dollar on US equipment that's ultimately controlled by the US in the end. That drives US mega defense industry and employs thousands in the US. Also the hegemonic control pushes oil rich countries of region to invest in the US with close to trillion dollars).

So US wants absolute control of that region always. US cannot afford to leave the region as Iranian general demanded. It will be massive blow to US foreign policy and hegemony. US would prefer war but not accept withdrawal from the region.

The middle ground could be that they both decides that few bases to be abandoned like US 5th fleet HQ in Bahrain. That keeps US navy destroyers all in and around PG and strait of hormuz and bases in Iraq and Kuwait. But US will keep bases in KSA, UAE and others for sure.

You are fully right. At the other hand, those bases will be under constant attack any time the US tries to do something. So they are in an untenable position. My hunch is a slow quiet withdrawal, more towards the western side of west asia, i.e. jordan. But yes, their plans are in the rubbish bin. They built the biggest 'embassy' in the world in baghdad, as an operations center for the entire region. That was for nothing too. They won't be operating anything out of there anymore in the future. Plans change, reality exists. They will have to because Iran forced and forces them to.

 

[Meengla]

It does not specify the "Israeli" withdrawal from Lebanon nor the end of the destruction of properties and other civilian infrastructure that "Israeli" forces are carrying out in South Lebanon. So for the people of South Lebanon, it is not good enough.
Hopefully, all fronts will include Gaza in addition to Yemen.

The 14 Point MOU is deliberately kept to the briefest possible 'understanding' to build upon during the next 60 days of pause in fighting and if needed 60 more days. Without an MOU, the fighting would continue and the global economy would continue to hurt--which has the consequences for both Iran and America in significant ways.
But Iran has put its foot down about the Lebanon issue and thrown the ball in Trump's court to force Netanyahu. This conflict is essentially now a test of will of President Trump vs Netanyahu.

 

[Master Chief]

Ir

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Iran must not capitulate to this b.s. phraseology.

"Cessation of hostilities in Lebanon" does not equate to "withdrawal from Lebanon".

Anyway, I don't think Iran is stupid enough to fall for this garbage.

 

[Master Chief]

The problem with this 14 point plan, if true, is that it doesn’t call Israel (and its occupation of southern Lebanon) out explicitly when it comes to ending the war in Lebanon.

The problem is that this is a US-Iran agreement only, and Israel can say it is not a party to this agreement; hence it can continue its actions in southern Lebanon.

It doesn't even ask for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.

Iran won't accept this nonsense.

 

[Meengla]

Pretty bad for the Israel Firsters when they start criticizing even Donald Trump. Is there any doubt left about the loyalties of these modern Carpetbaggers?

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[BananaRepublic]

Iran is not Afghanistan. If Iran continues to fight an "asymmetric war", it will end up like Afghanistan.

Yes, I agree that Iran's levers are overwhelmingly economic rather than military BUT those levers MUST BE PROTECTED by CREDIBLE military deterrence.

Iran's approach to the Strait is correct. Now Iran needs to back it up.

Right now, for whatever reason, the world doesn't actually believe Iran can stay the course. Don't shoot me btw, I'm just the messenger.

The way you talk is like IRGC just need to push a button.

IRGC physically doesn’t have the weapons to do what you want them to do.

No Muslim country does.

Asymmetric and attrition war is the only option.

You either accept the Afghan/Vietnam strategy or you surrender.

There’s no Return of the Jedi silver bullet to down the Evil Empire.

 

[PakistanLVR]

The way you talk is like IRGC just need to push a button.

IRGC physically doesn’t have the weapons to do what you want them to do.

No Muslim country does.

Asymmetric and attrition war is the only option.

You either accept the Afghan/Vietnam strategy or you surrender.

There’s no Return of the Jedi silver bullet to down the Evil Empire.

Sorry, you’re wrong on this one. Pakistan has the capacity and capability tenfold, so does Turkey. Iran does too with their missiles which I expect will become bigger and deadlier.

 

[RealNapster]

The problem with this 14 point plan, if true, is that it doesn’t call Israel (and its occupation of southern Lebanon) out explicitly when it comes to ending the war in Lebanon.

The problem is that this is a US-Iran agreement only, and Israel can say it is not a party to this agreement; hence it can continue its actions in southern Lebanon.

Than Iran can also say that it's deal was with USA and last it checked Israel is still not the 51st state of USA. And click on launch.

 

[Nawnaw1]

It doesn't even ask for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.

Iran won't accept this nonsense.

Withdrawing from Lebanon or not is not capitulation. If a deal like this gets done and holds, within a few years not even the Arabs themselves will allow Israel to set foot in any Arab land, wherever. Things don't happen in a vacuum. If America and it's posture get significantly reduced in the middle east, you think irsrael kan just do what it likes there? It's entire existense will be in question, and not because of military conflict. But the wrath of hundreds of millions of people in the region. Forced recognition and reconciliation with dictatorship governments (arab dictatorships) is not sustainable mid- to long term.

 

[Master Chief]

Withdrawing from Lebanon or not is not capitulation. If a deal like this gets done and holds, within a few years not even the Arabs themselves will allow Israel to set foot in any Arab land, wherever. Things don't happen in a vacuum. If America and it's posture get significantly reduced in the middle east, you think irsrael kan just do what it likes there? It's entire existense will be in question, and not because of military conflict. But the wrath of hundreds of millions of people in the region. Forced recognition and reconciliation with dictatorship governments (arab dictatorships) is not sustainable mid- to long term.

Good points. However, you describe a distant pipe dream. One or two Arab nations are waking up to the reality of having to actually cooperate with Iran regarding Israel, but many of them are firmly entrenched and will help Israel expand in any direction, even their own back yard.

UAE has just arranged an Israeli base in its territory.

Israel will keep going unless it is stopped now.

 

[Nawnaw1]

Good points. However, you describe a distant pipe dream. One or two Arab nations are waking up to the reality of having to actually cooperate with Iran regarding Israel, but many of them are firmly entrenched and will help Israel expand in any direction, even their own back yard.

UAE has just arranged an Israeli base in its territory.

Israel will keep going unless it is stopped now.

You're right, but I think that's just the very short term. Sure, a country like UAE is fake, 1 million actual inhabitants, all fully rich, they don't care, and 9 million south asians. But Jordan? How long can a country with 70% palestinian population be kept under the veils? Or Syria even in the future? The sunni people (and all others) fully hate israel. What about Iraq? They're growing rapidly. What will the iraqi government do in 20 years?
I don't mean war, fighting, lobbing missiles. What is pressure mounts on arab middle eastern governments so much (egypt also) to sanction israel fully? in 30 years maybe even the persian gulf arab countries will say: change your behaviour little sh!t, or we will demand the countries we sell oil to to sanction you. Secondary sanctions. It's not something only america can do.

What i mean basically is: if Iran comes out of this and is seen by the arab world as the protector of the weak in lebanon and filistin, pressure by the arab street will mount in a very big way to their dictator governments. to at least take action, not by arms, but by political anger and sanctions. can the entity survive that? they will have to change behaviour. even europe and the us will pressure them. no hegemony for a tiny entity, it's ridiculous. like a child walking into the gym and wanting to be the strongest man in the room. ridiculous.

 

[PakistanLVR]

Good points. However, you describe a distant pipe dream. One or two Arab nations are waking up to the reality of having to actually cooperate with Iran regarding Israel, but many of them are firmly entrenched and will help Israel expand in any direction, even their own back yard.

UAE has just arranged an Israeli base in its territory.

Israel will keep going unless it is stopped now.

Maybe we are looking at this wrong way, these regimes are illegitimate and serve only one purpose and that’s to be picked as hand chosen viceroys to safeguard the non Muslim interests. Everyone is arguing here for years on why these despots didn’t help out Gaza. Well because their thrones depends on the foreign powers protection.
Iran honestly should’ve taken out all their oil fields infrastructure. Wreck the petrol dollar hegemony for good so it doesn’t recover. They steal Muslim resources while pushing anti Islamic culture into the lands and at home in the West they treat Muslims like trash, whipping boy for all their mistakes.

 

[Flotilla]

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What the heck!!!!
Considering that JCPOA had a 5 years of lifetime to remove UN Sanctions and no one soldier left Persian Gulf... this is more alike Versailles Treaty II than a Peace agreement

 

[Nawnaw1]

What the heck!!!!
Considering that JCPOA had a 5 years of lifetime to remove UN Sanctions and no one soldier left Persian Gulf... this is more alike Versailles Treaty II than a Peace agreement

Well? Haven't you seen the tectonic shift in power in the region? Just because of that 40 day war? Iran has a million 'MAD' assurances. One is taking out 20% of the world's oil and gas for the next 10 years by missiling the entire persian gulf energy infrastructure. And two is the strait of hormuz. Never believe bs-assessments about ships sneaking through, so called trackers, so called maritime tracking companies bs. It's closed. And by closed in mean 90-95% reduced traffic. Iran can achieve that with 2 missiles and drones a day. Imagine. America can't do anything against this. Not in anybody's dreams. Even israeli politics is changing, all their think tankers are agreeing to this.
The US/israel combo had one shot in a million: pray that iran collapsed with that short term warm (Actually, within the first few days even). If that didn't happen, which it did not obviously, it was all lost.
Like me trying to rob a bank, just 5 minutes after the cash has been taken away by the armored car. now i'm trapped in there with 400 police surrounding the building.

 

[Flotilla]

So, realistically, assuming that this ceasefire extension goes through and Trump isn't lying again, what can Iran do during these 60 days to defend itself better next time? Besides production of a couple hundred ballistic missiles and drones, is there anything else that Iran can do during this time?

The 60-day extension is clearly good for the US and Israel as it gives them time to prepare for the next round and it gives the world economy more time to prepare for the next round as well. Most likely, oil prices will return back to less than $80 per barrel. However, I do not think Iran can use this extension to improve its AD or get military equipment from either Russia or China.

Also, now that Israel is not part of this extension, what will happen to Hezbollah?

@Persian Gulf @Immortals

The answer is simple.
Just buy gold and foreign currency a lot, storage it for avoiding in the most probably ceasefire violation for keeping control to the inflation.
Nothing more is necessary. The rest of the recipe it is maserfully know by the Islamic republic.