Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Pakistan First]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

How much do you all want to bet evacuations are next on the menu?

I feel UAE might formally join the war this time around. GCC as a whole might join along with NATO. They all are feeling, its different this time and Iran won't stop hitting commercial ships during ceasefire. Some evacuations would happen, depends how much Iranian BMs are left.

I feel bad though on MoU felling apart. It was a win by Iran. Hardliner IRGC's ruined it. Israel would be the happiest right now. We did so much effort and wasted so much energy on that negotiations / mediations.

 

[lightning f57]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

It shows how so far 500+ strikes in last few days alone have failed to stop ships being hit.

trumps strategy is to keep trying even if the outcomes are the same. The guy is heading to becoming the worst president in US history.

 

[Watandar]

SPIR will hit operational constraints around Labor Day at the current 7-9 million barrel per week depletion rate. That’s also around the same time the emergency release is scheduled to be finished.

Trump could decide to take it even lower and get us to critical levels where the salt caverns start becoming permanently exhausted if he is desperate to continue to suppress oil prices before mid terms. That will buy him another 6-8 weeks or thru Nov, assuming the market doesn’t front run this entire event and raise paper oil prices anticipating it being a likely outcome.

Both sides are playing a dangerous game of chicken.

Trump the narcissist will destroy the SPR to save himself. I think it will be among the casualties of this war.

 

[Watandar]

I feel UAE might formally join the war this time around. GCC as a whole might join along with NATO. They all are feeling, its different this time and Iran won't stop hitting commercial ships during ceasefire. Some evacuations would happen, depends how much Iranian BMs are left.

I feel bad though on MoU felling apart. It was a win by Iran. Hardliner IRGC's ruined it. Israel would be the happiest right now. We did so much effort and wasted so much energy on that negotiations / mediations.

You seem to have misunderstood what the US was doing. Take some time and watch the first 10 minutes of this video to see why the MoU was DoA.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Trump the narcissist will destroy the SPR to save himself. I think it will be among the casualties of this war.

Keep in mind that fall harvest will begin to start a few weeks after labor day depending on the location and the crop. If pressures on gasoline and #2 diesel prices continue, it will show at the the market level sooner rather than later.

 

[Immortals]

It shows how so far 500+ strikes in last few days alone have failed to stop ships being hit.

trumps strategy is to keep trying even if the outcomes are the same. The guy is heading to becoming the worst president in US history.

I mean your typical target is something like this:

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Also people forget the strait is less than 25 miles across at certain points? A fishing vessel with binoculars can feed coordinates to someone on land to pass to targeting crews.

You don’t need radar to hit ships the size of skyscraper, just the coordinates and speed and the CM will lock on once it’s close enough.

 

[FUB]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Master Chief]

Brother, I will repeat it one last time. Did you expect Israel to stop in Lebanon overnight? To not attempt to keep going? Did you not see the repeated back and forth between the US and Israel on it? The increasing pressure on Israel to stop? Did the Iranian attack stop it? Iran saw and understood all of this fully and wisely is/was giving it time. It's you guys, who are presenting it as the excuse for them. The attack was in reality a foolish gamble to keep the entirety of Hormuz under their control beyond this war. The vessels weren't Israeli or in Israel. Don't take my word for it,

"Iran blamed the US for the incident on Tuesday, saying Washington’s efforts to open up new routes through the strait constituted a breach of the memorandum of understanding the two parties had signed."

US launches strikes against Iran after attacks on vessels in strait of Hormuz

US Central Command says Tehran in ‘clear violation’ of ceasefire with ‘unwarranted’ attacks on commercial ships

www.theguardian.com

It doesn't. Please read it again. I've explained it half a dozen times today.



Please go back to my post and read it as many times as you need to understand it.

You've said your piece. I've said mine. I am sticking to my assertion that Israel was demonstrably in material breach of the terms of the MoU that it was party to. Whether this was expected or not, it happened. Ergo, Israel is culpable for the violation of said treaty. Forum goers may make their minds up themselves.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Week ending​	SPR inventory​	Weekly change​	Equivalent per day​
June 5	349.192M	-7.927M	−1.13M b/d
June 12	340.251M	-8.941M	−1.28M b/d
June 19	331.191M	-9.060M	−1.29M b/d
June 26	325.655M	-5.536M	−791K b/d
July 3	319.489M	6.166M	−881K b/

The new -3M for the past 7 days, I’d treat as an outlier until next week’s can confirm it. Especially given the ramp up in the conflict.

both sides will be in pain in 2-3 months (Iran with full oil storage and no ability to export oil, the US with depleted inventories and SPR reaching dangerous lows)

the question is who can inflict more damage on the other until then

 

[Persian Gulf]

Brother, I will repeat it one last time. Did you expect Israel to stop in Lebanon overnight?

What he expects is irrelevant, all that matters is what was agreed in the MOU.

 

[Watandar]

All thing will collapse over Lebanon, it is not over yet.

You were proven correct. Lebanon was the first crack in the MoU, then US threats and insults to Iran and finally the US trying to wrestle control of the Strait from Iran via the Omani route. All 3 actions were against the MoU.

One can argue the Iranians took pre-emptive action by targeting ships going through the Omani route once they realized the US had no intention of fulfilling the MoU.

 

[Persian Gulf]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[RescueRanger]

What he expects is irrelevant, all that matters is what was agreed in the MOU.

This 10000%, an agreement was made and it was decided hostilities would stop. The Memorandum of MISUNDERSTANDING was doomed from the start! Also ISRAEL is POS nation that has been lighting fires in the region and expecting Washington to bail them out when the shit hits the fan.

Anyone can be TEN MEN when they have a nuclear superpower backing them.

 

[ShotErrorKh]

I feel UAE might formally join the war this time around. GCC as a whole might join along with NATO. They all are feeling, its different this time and Iran won't stop hitting commercial ships during ceasefire. Some evacuations would happen, depends how much Iranian BMs are left.

I feel bad though on MoU felling apart. It was a win by Iran. Hardliner IRGC's ruined it. Israel would be the happiest right now. We did so much effort and wasted so much energy on that negotiations / mediations.

What a shit take, gcc joins = desalination + oil fields + gas fields kaboom = entire population has to be evacuated

 

[lightning f57]

I dont get the night time attacks by both parties - is it to reduce casualties?