Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Master Chief]

Brother, I will repeat it one last time. Did you expect Israel to stop in Lebanon overnight? To not attempt to keep going? Did you not see the repeated back and forth between the US and Israel on it? The increasing pressure on Israel to stop? Did the Iranian attack stop it? Iran saw and understood all of this fully and wisely is/was giving it time. It's you guys, who are presenting it as the excuse for them. The attack was in reality a foolish gamble to keep the entirety of Hormuz under their control beyond this war. The vessels weren't Israeli or in Israel. Don't take my word for it,

"Iran blamed the US for the incident on Tuesday, saying Washington’s efforts to open up new routes through the strait constituted a breach of the memorandum of understanding the two parties had signed."

US launches strikes against Iran after attacks on vessels in strait of Hormuz

US Central Command says Tehran in ‘clear violation’ of ceasefire with ‘unwarranted’ attacks on commercial ships

www.theguardian.com

It doesn't. Please read it again. I've explained it half a dozen times today.



Please go back to my post and read it as many times as you need to understand it.

You've said your piece. I've said mine. I am sticking to my assertion that Israel was demonstrably in material breach of the terms of the MoU that it was party to. Whether this was expected or not, it happened. Ergo, Israel is culpable for the violation of said treaty. Forum goers may make their minds up themselves.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Week ending​	SPR inventory​	Weekly change​	Equivalent per day​
June 5	349.192M	-7.927M	−1.13M b/d
June 12	340.251M	-8.941M	−1.28M b/d
June 19	331.191M	-9.060M	−1.29M b/d
June 26	325.655M	-5.536M	−791K b/d
July 3	319.489M	6.166M	−881K b/

The new -3M for the past 7 days, I’d treat as an outlier until next week’s can confirm it. Especially given the ramp up in the conflict.

both sides will be in pain in 2-3 months (Iran with full oil storage and no ability to export oil, the US with depleted inventories and SPR reaching dangerous lows)

the question is who can inflict more damage on the other until then

 

[Persian Gulf]

Brother, I will repeat it one last time. Did you expect Israel to stop in Lebanon overnight?

What he expects is irrelevant, all that matters is what was agreed in the MOU.

 

[Watandar]

All thing will collapse over Lebanon, it is not over yet.

You were proven correct. Lebanon was the first crack in the MoU, then US threats and insults to Iran and finally the US trying to wrestle control of the Strait from Iran via the Omani route. All 3 actions were against the MoU.

One can argue the Iranians took pre-emptive action by targeting ships going through the Omani route once they realized the US had no intention of fulfilling the MoU.

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[RescueRanger]

What he expects is irrelevant, all that matters is what was agreed in the MOU.

This 10000%, an agreement was made and it was decided hostilities would stop. The Memorandum of MISUNDERSTANDING was doomed from the start! Also ISRAEL is POS nation that has been lighting fires in the region and expecting Washington to bail them out when the shit hits the fan.

Anyone can be TEN MEN when they have a nuclear superpower backing them.

 

[ShotErrorKh]

I feel UAE might formally join the war this time around. GCC as a whole might join along with NATO. They all are feeling, its different this time and Iran won't stop hitting commercial ships during ceasefire. Some evacuations would happen, depends how much Iranian BMs are left.

I feel bad though on MoU felling apart. It was a win by Iran. Hardliner IRGC's ruined it. Israel would be the happiest right now. We did so much effort and wasted so much energy on that negotiations / mediations.

What a shit take, gcc joins = desalination + oil fields + gas fields kaboom = entire population has to be evacuated

 

[lightning f57]

I dont get the night time attacks by both parties - is it to reduce casualties?

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

If he was acting as a double agent he didn’t do a good job at it he may have regretted it after everything was said and done but I’m guessing if he does have any useful intel regarding the meetings with Mossad they will quietly execute him shortly after they got whatever they could find

Had former President Ahmadinejad been working with them, they would not have been sharing this info publicly. This is disinformation on their part.

 

[Immortals]

both sides will be in pain in 2-3 months (Iran with full oil storage and no ability to export oil, the US with depleted inventories and SPR reaching dangerous lows)

the question is who can inflict more damage on the other until then

Iran survived COVID when oil was $15 and exports at <250K barrels It can survive more than 6 months with exports <1MBPD and at $100+. It can move oil by train and thru Iraq and thru the Caspian. Lots of options to stay alive.

Iran has a $400B economy, it’s the world that has much more to lose than Iran. 40% of Iran is living in poverty already.

What’s Iran got left to lose vs America?

 

[Immortals]

 

[Shags101]

Had former President Ahmadinejad been working with them, they would not have been sharing this info publicly. This is disinformation on their part.

I don’t know he was always an odd one and he definitely got burned in the past by the Iranian government right or wrong but if there is any truth into it I’m guessing we will find out sooner than later or he will just disappear altogether save the Iranians embarrassment if he was the one feeding Israelis information with his supporters knowingly or unknowingly sharing the information with Mossad

 

[Shags101]

Iran survived COVID when oil was $15 and exports at <250K barrels It can survive more then 6 months with exports <1MBPD and at $100+

Iran has a $400B economy, it’s the world that has much more to lose than Iran. 40% of Iran is living in poverty already.

What’s Iran got left to lose?

Honestly sad to say not much more to lose

 

[Shags101]

…….fake news jeb bush needs to be like his brother and stay out of the limelight I mean I barely remember the guy as my governor

 

[RescueRanger]

I dont get the night time attacks by both parties - is it to reduce casualties?

From a military point of view, the US adopting this helps them conceal launch platforms, lower morale, makes for spectacular visuals of large explosions lighting up the night sky.

From a tactical point of view, they make the most of their superior sensors and nighttime capabilities as they can see heat signatures far better during nighttime, reduce risk to American pilots as visual identification of incoming aircraft is very difficult at night-time, thus reducing any visual targeting of US aircraft by personnel with MANPADS and also to exploit slower reaction times of Iranian defenders who may not be on full readiness due to the time.