Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

That argument doesn't hold water. China might temporarily stop buying oil due to economic exigencies—likely to avert a global crash—

You are refusing to believe the facts on the ground which are Xi and Trump agreed in a back rooms deal for China to temporarily halt imports so that oil prices could come down and Trump could get a deal.

This notion that China is going thru a this slowdown or economic weakness was a bullshit excuse to give China diplomatic cover against Iran who was allowing Chinese ships to transit for free, because why would you then reverse the decision to import a few months later? What happen? Your magical economic weakness just disappeared overnight?

Then Trump as usual went and threw that understanding out the window and restarted the war because he didn’t like the terms of the MoU. Now China is once again importing because why should it reduce its strategic oil reserves if the war is not going to end?

but what is certain is that if it abandons its allies (such as Russia, Iran, North Korea, or even Pakistan), Western militaries would all set their sights on Beijing.

China doesn’t have allies. North Korea is only a beneficial country because of Korean War and strategic location on China’s border. If North Korea was where Japan is located, China wouldn’t give two shits about Kim Jung Un.

Pakistan represents a perfect second front against India, while Iran is a target for the United States in the Middle East. Anything else is mere speculation, calculated to breed apathy and undermine Iran's morale.

If push came to shove, China would drop Pakistan like a hot potato. Pakistan for China is the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” example. That’s it.

Pakistan has trouble with its finances. Pakistan is not energy independent. China doesn’t rely on Pakistan for any critical goods or services. It’s strictly a beneficial military relationship because of India. Now let’s make something clear, China doesn’t need Pakistan to handle the India file. China has more than enough military power to severely hurt India if push came to shove.

So I do push back on this notion that China has strategic allies. None of what you would call allies are strategically important for China. They can all be dropped if need be.

China does not have an Israel or Hezbollah or Taiwan like ally it would refuse to give up outside of North Korea and that is mostly because China doesn’t want US bases right next door in North Korea.

 

[Watandar]

if US invasion is coming in 3 location plus a 4th as a diversion where are the likely invasion points ?

Any ground operation would be insanely stupid but there is a lot of media / social chatter about potentially seizing some islands to use as leverage against Iran and to convince shippers that the Strait is safely open. This is the reason that coastline is being attacked so that Iranians cannot harass or counter attack these islands.

Some potential harassment and diversion ops by Kurds or someone else inside Iran are also being talked about.

Personally I believe airstrikes culminating in a B2 attack on Pickaxe mountain is about as far as it will go before Mr Trump declares victory.

 

[tsunset]

So far the UK, the top 1 country allowing US strikes on Iran, hasn't been struck at all since RAF Akrotiri in March

K-4 can reach London and northern England

Iran can fire empty kinetic missiles at them as a warning

 

[Immortals]

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[Immortals]

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[Immortals]

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[Immortals]

U.S. Has begun strikes against Iran for an 8th straight night

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[tsunset]

Seriously, what are the PGCC Kinglets real work?

Iranian and US diplomats and generals work from morning to night relentlessly trying to negotiate and think strategically, but what are the PGCC equivalents doing besides buying Rolexes and eating/sleeping?

 

[HAIDER]

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seems Israeli are also fully involved strikes on Iran.

 

[Flotilla]

Then Trump as usual went and threw that understanding out the window and restarted the war because he didn’t like the terms of the MoU. Now China is once again importing because why should it reduce its strategic oil reserves if the war is not going to end?

I agree at this point.

Maybe China, Russia and US had a secret deal for allowing Trump a small window of opportunity to reach a deal.

But if China let fall Irán, all carriers will go directly to South East China sea as next stop.

And, ironically, if China starts buying oíl again, probably that would help Trump to TACO again, unlike this kind of pact you're describing.

 

[Persian Gulf]

massive ongoing fires in Kuwait

 

[Immortals]

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[Persian Gulf]

@Kyussis how many times do you have to be told to avoid personal attacks / insults?

 

[Immortals]

But if China let fall Irán, all carriers will go directly to South East China sea as next stop.

China doesn’t care if Iran falls, Russia falls, or Pakistan falls. It has no bearing on China and it will adjust.

You have to realize Chinese communist party is a godless group of individuals. The concept of strategic alliance doesn’t exist in their minds.

Some might point to Russia and say Xi would never let Putin fall. This is a mistake. China still hasn’t forgiven Russia for turning its back on what Lenin and Stalin built. Mao hated Soviet Union/Russia for turning its back on communism. So in China’s eyes, Russia is a gas station and nothing more.

And, ironically, if China starts buying oíl again, probably that would help Trump to TACO again, unlike this kind of pact you're describing.

It’s too late to TACO. The battle for Hormuz has started. Neither side is gonna give it up. Iran cannot afford to give it up because it would have no future leverage.

 

[Flotilla]

Your analysis doesn't help though...

China backed the ceasefire... pushed Pakistan and alleviated the global pressure by using their own reserves...

For China to resume buying now means that cushion is lost at the worst possible time for orange... he has not only no alternative... he burnt through the US reserves simultaneously. That when Russians themselves are feeling the pinch because their refining capacity has taken a devastating hit. They're importing fuel...

Putin played it badly... he allowed Ukraine to stabilize and establish their niche... his task is harder as EU goes on offensive. However, Russian front has greatly helped Iran in other ways... such as the depletion of critical munitions and interceptors that keep getting chewed up in that war. The US itself needs the sour crude as the winter approaches for heating oil consumers. It means a whole lot of oil is going off market while the reserves are heading to the bottom.
Orange overplayed his ego...

While I agree with the core of your statements, please don't forget that when Putin reached the Presidency of Russia, he inherited a bankrupt country with virtually no real Air force and a tenth part of the previous Soviet Army.
The Russian Navy was obsolete and just strategic missile forces and nuclear ballistic submarines were somewhat operative.
Putin did not have enough power to stop plans of Colin Powell and George Bush to deploy ABM systems in Poland and Romania.

I recall when the announcement was done that he said that US and Europe were to regret of that moving... And ultimately they did.