Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

Qalibaf fails every step of the way and continues on undeterred. How do these incompetent and shallow minded people reach these high positions in IR?

Iran is much like Corporate America. I would meet with executives and think to myself “how is this idiot an executive at such a large company”.

In reality my friend you will realize that people in powerful spots whether government, social, corporate are usually not there because they are smarter than you or have a harder work ethic. They are usually their because of luck, connections, and questionable morality compass.

The same holds true for officials in the IR of Iran. Many are not their for their intellect or foresight, instead they are their from connections, corruption, and nepotism.

The only positive sign re. Qalibaf is that he is constantly rationalizing and explaining his actions. This indicates he is facing some kind of push back from people that count.

He’s an idiot. He was a terrible mayor of Tehran and a corrupt individual who made lucrative business deals for his friends and didn’t modernize the city or help its people.

In fact, he’s not too different than Trump in some aspects.

 

[Magi]

Assads Syria had to import most of its things. At least we dont have to import the basics. That already shields us for the most part.

I feel this picture is based on the pre war situation. Many core upstream industries have been destroyed. Take steel and metals refining for example. The Isfahan steel plant was bombed among others.

Steel is the backbone of most traditional industries. No steel, no oil and gas. All piping and other equipment is made of various grades of steel and must be replaced as they wear out, if not already bombed. Then you get fuel and chemicals shortages. That cripples logistics. How many truck and taxi drivers will be out of work due to gasoline shortages? Machinists, welders, pipe fitters, mechanics, refinery and other manufacturing operators, painters, etc. etc. Will they demonstrate and cause riots? How many industries will be backlogged due to trucking and logistics, on top of raw materials shortages?

This is just one example. In these recent wars they destroyed much of what previously enabled Iran to withstand economics sanctions. Plus we now have a physical naval blockade on top of banking and bureaucratic sanctions that existed before the war.

 

[Immortals]

How feasible is this scenario?

Iran threatens to shut down suez canal. Suez canal is very very narrow (300m wide) and only one or two ships can pass at any time. If Iran strikes a few ships it would block the entire canal.

This would have a huge effect on international markets for sure.

Not feasible. Iran doesn’t have accurate enough weapons to hit the Suez enough to shut down for long. It can’t even shut down the Persian gulf despite having a 800KM+ coastline with it.

Plus why would you want to anger Egypt and piss off one of the few Arab countries that are not involved in this war.

The best way to hurt the world is to launch a significant Ukraine like attack on Fujairah where about 2M barrels per day of oil bypass the Strait. Then having the Houthi’s go after Yanbu in the Red Sea where another 2-4MBPD pass.

That would remove 4-5MBPD of oil from markets and would def shock the world.

 

[lightning f57]

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If that post doesn't read military failure not sure what else will.

 

[Flotilla]

SU-35 protect the nuclear program

And I quote;

The combination of the Sukhoi Su-35 (Flanker-E) fighter and the Vympel R-37M (AA-13 Axehead) ultra-long-range hypersonic missile represents one of the most lethal aviation pillars of the Russian Air Force's Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) doctrine. This duo seeks to neutralize Western air superiority by forcing key aircraft to retreat or face destruction before they can engage.

Su35 and R37M A2/AD

So.
assuming that Su35 deployed in Hamedan AB it is at 200 km straight line away from Pickaxe Mountain;

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Pickaxe+Mountain,+PP45%2BMH,+Isfahan+Province,+Ir%C3%A1n/Shahrokhi+Airbase%5B,+6M75%2BH3F,+Kabudarahang,+Hamadan+Province,+Ir%C3%A1n/@34.463838,48.8041399,337717m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x3f964100458793c9:0x414f43582c15a7c2!2m2!1d51.70393!2d33.7088532!1m5!1m1!1s0x3ff17f0040d5f3f1:0x5eb02de788e1d67a!2m2!1d48.6576853!2d35.2139329!3e0?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI2MDgxNy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

And considering that a Su35 with 2 PTB3000 (external tanks) can fly 4.850 kilometers

With two PTB-3000

16550

4870

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/su-35-range-estimate.50310/

If that Su35S is loaded with at least 2 R37M (we know it has been also purchased by the IRIAF) witha weight of 510 kg each one and at least 2 R74 for self defense (105kg) (1020+210 = 1220 kg). (We can just say 1,5 tons of weapons).

If you decrease 850 km to the 4850 total range and divide it by two (because the fighter must go and turn back) you will realize that it can fly 2.000 km in a typical mission of just 2 fuel tanks and 2 + 2 long range and short range missiles at 900km/h of cruise speed.

At 200 km distance a pair of Su35 can patrol over Pickaxe mountain from Hamedan 2 hours.

If IRIAF just purchased 48 fighters, that means that you can comfortably protect 24/7 the triangle formed by Arak, Qom and Pickaxe Mountain. And maintain some other units for repairing or servicing.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

It is not the same. Syria first fell in a civil war and then bigger actors started to support different factions until finally the central Government collapsed.
Even if any foreign actor can push for a civil war inside Irán, the central power using IRGC would eventually succeed prevailing over the rebelión.
IMO that scenario is not plausible.

Without a strong and armed proxy or proxies ... a government supported both financially and militarily from outside. A hostile population with a minority cult government...

There is no parallel! None of these apply to Iran... in fact, all Iran has to do is secure periphery from hostile groups... basing, logistics financial or propaganda support from outside. Reconstruction is an own imperative and there is no need for a handout If anything... Germany got more radical, paved way for NAZIs, developed internally.

 

[lightning f57]

Its only going to keep going up for two reasons.
1. fighting resumed a few weeks ago and it takes around 45 days for the last oil tanker that was allowed free passage to touch down and supply oil. after that its all just some oil leak here and there which is no where enough.
2. China has a lot of oil tankers off its coastline and not willing to go deep into strategic reserves at all incase a war breaks out and you need the oil and gas for fighting. Therefore China will likely play the market as well and buy a lot of oil pushing up the prices.

So i don't think the price is going down anytime soon.

3rd reason strategic reserves going down further.

 

[Immortals]

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[Immortals]

So.
assuming that Su35 deployed in Hamedan AB it is at 200 km straight line away from Pickaxe Mountain;
.

Hamedan AB would be destroyed in the next war like it was destroyed in this war.

The only way Iran can keep its future fighter jets (if it ever procures any) safe will be thru mountain air bases like Oghab-44 built all over the country.

Anything above ground even in HAS will not stand a chance against an onslaught of PGMs and CMs.

You have to keep them underneath a mountain or you will lose them in time.

 

[Immortals]

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